RADIO
CURRENT ADP: 240
RANKINGS STATUS: Undervalued
ANALYSIS: Last season, it seemed like just about everyone and their mother was on the Billy Hamilton bandwagon after a promising cup of coffee with the big league squad in 2013. While those Hamilton advocates reaped the benefits in the first half of the 2014 season, Hamilton’s true colors creeped through in the second half with his dismal .200 Mendoza line batting average and a .253 BABIP. While the course correction hasn’t been seen by the fantasy community (Hamilton's ADP sits at 51.8), there are several worthy alternatives later in the draft. Adam Eaton is one such alternative and is going severely underdrafted across all fantasy platforms at a paltry 240 ADP average.
The oft-injured Eaton posted 76 R and 15 SB alongside a .300 AVG and .362 OBP in merely 486 ABs. Prorating the counting numbers to a 600 AB season leaves Eaton with 94 R and 19 SB. While the SB numbers are severely lower than where Hamilton was last year, Eaton would have racked up 22 more runs than Hamilton scored.
Eaton should be hitting in a much improved lineup with Melky Cabrera, Jose Abreu, and Adam Laroche hitting behind him, further increasing his potential run contribution. Furthermore, It would not be surprising to see those SB numbers creep up into the 30s as he posted 44 and 34 in the minors leagues in 2012 and 2011 respectively.
Naysayers may point out Eatons incredible power outage as he cracked only 1 HR all of last season. However, his minor league track record combined with an unsustainably low 1.3 HR/FB% last season suggest he should sit around the 5 HR range, similar to Hamilton. Eaton's strong on-base skills and runs scoring potential, along with his .340 wOBA and 115 wRC+, peg him as worthy OF5 in mixed leagues. All projections systems have him sitting firmly between the .270 and .290 AVG range which is a clear tier above Hamilton’s .240 to .260 range. To top it off, Eaton walked at a 2.5% higher clip than the Cincinnati speedster.
While Eaton is not a perfect Hamilton replacement, as he won't have the otherworldly steals numbers, he is surely more valuable than his 240 ADP. That ADP sits 188 slots lower than Hamilton, 180 slots below Dee Gordon, and even 101 slots below Phillie’s speedster Ben Revere. He should be targeted in your mixed league as a late round run machine with a solid BA and 20-30 stolen bases.
