RADIO
Death, taxes, and Aaron Rodgers performing for fantasy football. Some things in life are almost certain, but after the opening weekend of football, the crown seems to have slipped slightly.
Rodgers and the Packers limped to a road victory against the Chicago Bears, as they struggled statistically. Rodgers finished the game completing 18-of-30 attempts for 203 yards and a single touchdown, which is a fair way below his normal career numbers. Rodgers' ADP fell this offseason, due in part to the struggles of the offense last season, along with a change in his situation.
Between his recent struggles, coaching changes, and a seemingly increased emphasis on the running game, should fantasy owners start to worry about Rodgers remaining an elite QB, or should they take his advice and R-E-L-A-X?
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Bringing In The New Guy & Teething Troubles
The Green Bay Packers decided to make a coaching change in the offseason, hiring Matt LaFleur. LaFleur's previous coaching experience was as part of Sean McVay's offense in Los Angeles, before moving on to take the play-calling duties in Tennessee with the Titans. LaFleur's offense with the Titans didn't seem to get off to the best of starts, however, the weapons in Tennessee aren't as talented as the roster in Green Bay- due largely to the quarterback position.
Rodgers, for the first time in his career, had to learn a new NFL offense and was only limited to training reps in which to do this. Back tightness held him out of the opening weeks of preseason action, while troubles with the field held him out of the third preseason game. As talented as Rodgers is, any quarterback in a new offense needs time.
New offense scheme? R-E-L-A-X. Rodgers is still a supremely talented quarterback, and opening against one of the toughest defensive units on the road isn't the easiest matchup in which to be figuring out your new offense.
Focus On The Running Game
The Titans had success towards the end of the season when they took the ball out of the hands of their quarterback and trusted their backfield instead. The Green Bay Packers finished last in the league in rushing attempts, and clearly that was going to change. Even if the team were to simply regress to the middle of the league and finish 16th in rushing there would be around 70 more attempts, which would be around four more attempts each game.
In the opening game, the Packers ran the ball 22 times, with 18 of the attempts from their running back duo of Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams. While it is only one game, that would add up to 352 rushes for the season. Clearly the team made an effort to try and rebalance their offense, and the running game is a big part of that. The Packers offense that LaFleur has said he wants to run revolves around the play-action game. This requires an effective game on the ground to begin with.
Jones was effective last season when he was given the ball, averaging a league-high 5.5 yards per carry for the second straight year. He looks to be the lead back for the team. Revisiting the matchup against the Chicago Bears, they are one of the best teams in stifling the run, so the struggles aren't squarely at the feet of the running game.
Interestingly, Rodgers was more effective when working off of play-action, completing four of his five attempts for 84 yards and a QB rating of 118.8. For comparison, Rodgers struggled on his other attempts, with 119 yards from his 25 attempts and an 81.9 rating (albeit he scored his lone touchdown).
Focus On The Running Game? R-E-L-A-X. The running game being more effective will allow Rodgers to be more efficient with his looks and give him time to make his passes. Judging the offense on the opening game against the Chicago Bears is unfair, with strength against the run. A better challenge is the Minnesota Vikings, who were closer to the average against the run last season.
Improvements On Defense
For years, the Packers constantly overlooked the defense, putting the outcome of the matchup and season squarely on the shoulders of Rodgers. With the change in coaching came a change in philosophy for free agent recruitment. The team went out and picked up the Smith duo of Za'Darius Smith and Preston Smith to put pressure on the quarterback in the pocket, while also adding Adrian Amos to help the secondary become more consistent.
The addition of those pieces should mean that the Packers can ease the pressure on the offense, and their quarterback. While this is good for the team, this could prove to be bad for the passing game for fantasy purposes. Shootouts are great for the potential of fantasy points, but if the Packers unit is able to restrict the number of points they give up then the potential for those shootouts is limited this season.
Improvements On Defense? Worry! While it's hard to say that the unit is vastly improved from one game, the Bears offense was effective last season and the Packers were able to really put them under pressure. If that trend continues, then expect to see a lot of low-scoring games for the Packers this season.
Conclusion
R-E-L-A-X. The team is finding its feet, and that is the same for their elite quarterback. Making decisions off of the back of one performance against one of the best defensive units wouldn't be a wise decision. Rodgers certainly wasn't ranked highly among quarterbacks in the opening week for that very reason. If you drafted him, have faith that this is still Aaron Rodgers, one of the best quarterbacks in the game. If you didn't then there has never been a better time to try and pick him up.
While some other owners might be getting twitchy about his performance, have faith that the offense this season has to be an upgrade on what was being utilized last season, and Rodgers has more surrounding weapons than last season. Put him in your lineup this week and enjoy the game!
