RADIO
Dom Petrillo examines the fantasy football value of Packers QB Aaron Rodgers in Week 16 as he tries to shake off a disappointing season to help owners in the fantasy championship or semi-finals.
As fantasy playoff season comes around, the saying goes, "Start your studs." Another popular phrase: "Play the guys who got you there." Both of these sayings hold true 99% of the time but there are some situations which this does not prove to be the case.
One of these cases could be this week with the curious case of Aaron Rodgers. There had been rumors circulating that Rodgers wouldn’t play against the Jets, making the line go from Packers -3.5 to Jets -2.5. These rumors seem unfounded, as Rodgers himself said he will play in Week 16 despite the Pack being out of the playoff race.
Vegas odds aside, when it comes to fantasy football, this is where it matters for our purposes. Do you want to play Aaron Rodgers in a final or semi-final game, knowing of his groin injury? Or do we want to avoid Aaron Rodgers in case it flairs up and he has to leave early? Heck, you might want to avoid Rodgers in Week 16 no matter what based on the lackluster season he has been having in his 14th year - a year in which even players like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady declined before rebounding the following season. I mean, isn’t that what great players do?
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All's Well That Ends Well
Let us look at the stats for Aaron Rodgers so far this season. He is currently ninth in pass completions with 332, he is sixth in pass yards with 3,974 but only 13th in touchdowns with 23.
These numbers are not the normal stats we can expect from Rodgers and is the reason a lot of fantasy players who had him as their quarterback are probably not in the championship week of their league. If you did make it somehow, congratulations on making it. You must have had a hell of a supporting cast to avoid the result which consumed most of his owners.
If you are looking to see if he is a good start this week against the New York Jets, the answer would seemingly be yes. The Jets give up an average of 243 yards per game in the passing game and have also allowed 23 passing touchdowns this season. The Jets give up 125.9 yards on the ground, but with Aaron Jones now on injured reserve, Jamal Williams will not be relied on as heavily as Jones was and this will open up even more opportunity for Rodgers to connect with Davante Adams and Randall Cobb for some big plays.
On the other side of the ball, Isaiah Crowell is also on the Injured Reserve list and with Quincy Enunwa also ailing, it will come down to Elijah McGuire and Robby Anderson to provide weapons for Sam Darnold and the Jets offense. Darnold has shown a proclivity to throw the ball to the other team with 15 interceptions so far in 2018 and this should mean an extra drive or two for the Packers to put up good fantasy points for you. Most of these points should come from the arm of Rodgers as he lights up the Jets defense after being held in check and relatively embarrassed by Chicago and Khalil Mack last week in a rivalry game.
Aaron Rodgers is for sure having a down season. With only 23 touchdowns as stated above, he could be playing a lot better for sure. But if you got here to the finals and he is your quarterback, it is going to be difficult to sit him down in favor of a streamer or backup. Luckily, he does have an exploitable matchup in this one. Whether you are a Packers fan a Jets fan or a fantasy football fan, Rodgers should be a solid play this week in a game he should smash in. I hate the term smash spot because it proves wrong more times than it proves right, but if there is a spot in which Aaron Rodgers should make it known he is not done, this is it.
Look for Rodgers to potentially throw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns in this one. Not only because the New York defense is bad, but also because Green Bay, missing Aaron Jones, will rely on the pass more so than the rushing game. Rodgers, Adams and Cobb will be great plays this week for championship matchups and you should be completely comfortable rolling them out and hopefully winning your game. Good Luck!
