Aaron Nola (PHI, SP) - Waiver Wire Pickups

BALLER MOVE: Add in all leagues

OWNED IN: 42% of Fleaflicker leagues

ANALYSIS: Aaron Nola seemed like a decent prospect with a capped ceiling prior to his call up in 2015, and he reinforced that belief by replicating the mediocre strikeout rate and home run issues he occasionally showed in the minor leagues. While certainly not perfect, Nola’s 3.59 ERA and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of better than 3:1 made him a solid play heading into 2016.

Nola has turned that perception on it’s head, however, as he now owns a 2.93 ERA with 44 strikeouts in 40 innings following his seven scoreless frames against the Cardinals on Tuesday. Is there a reason for the drastic uptick in strikeouts and overall performance, or has Nola simply been running hot in a small sample of work?

The answer may lie in his pitch profile, as Nola has been throwing his most effective pitch (his curveball) far more often this season. Through his first six starts, Nola has gone to the bender nearly 34 percent of the time. This has paid huge dividends, as the pitch rates more than nine runs above average. The success of the pitch has contributed to an improvement in Nola’s numbers virtually across the board, including HR/9 rate, walk rate, and ground ball rate.

We have seen quite a drastic shift from Nola to begin the season, which might explain his low ownership percentage. It is sometimes difficult to trust success over a small space when the track record doesn’t quite support it. We can find a reasonable explanation for Nola’s early breakout, however, which should allow perspective owners to comfortably add him in all formats.