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Who should I start or sit for fantasy football Week 16 of the 2021 season? Pierre Camus identifies potential fantasy football busts and duds to avoid.
As we head into Week 16 of the NFL season, survival is the name of the game in order to avoid injuries and COVID.
It's more critical than ever to make the right lineup decisions and start the right players to put out your optimal lineups in order to advance to the fantasy championship.
Listed below will be some players who could be in for a disappointing performance relative to their overall expectations. No matter how bad of a matchup some of these players may have, fantasy managers likely aren't in a position to leave them on their bench. Having said that, there are a couple of players who are by no means a must-start in Week 16.
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Should I Start Derek Carr in Week 16?
Remember Derek Carr from the first half of the season who averaged 324 passing yards per game and had his team at the top of the AFC West? Neither do I.
A lot has happened since that time, namely head coach Jon Gruden resigning, leading receiver Henry Ruggs getting released, Kenyan Drake suffering a season-ending injury, and tight end Darren Waller missing the past three games with a knee injury. None of those things will change heading into Week 16 unless Waller returns in a Christmas miracle despite not practicing all week. Carr has predictably struggled to generate much production for fantasy teams, averaging 249.3 passing yards per game with a 2-2 TD-INT rate since Waller has been out.
The news only gets worse in Week 16 as Carr faces a Denver defense that allows the fourth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and has been lights out lately. With a few QBs sidelined this week, pivoting might be necessary even in single-QB leagues. Look away from Carr.
Should I Start Antonio Gibson in Week 16?
Just when we thought Gibson was getting healthier, the dreaded turf toe resurfaces. Despite playing with a stress fracture in his shin for most of the season, he seemed to get better after the bye in Week 9 and has averaged 20 carries per game since then. He was performing up to preseason expectations too, averaging 89.5 rushing yards between Week 10-13. Then came Dallas.
When these two division rivals met in Week 14, Gibson was held to 41 total yards without a score. The Cowboys defense has been the story of their season, improving from 28th in scoring defense last season to seventh this season. They are allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs on the season, so it poses another tough matchup for Gibson this time around.
As if that weren't enough, there is a chance he doesn't even suit up or is limited due to that toe. He may play through the pain as he's done all year, especially with J.D. McKissic on IR, but don't expect much productivity if he does go.
Should I Start Myles Gaskin or Duke Johnson in Week 16?
The answer is no to both. Many FAB dollars were spent on Sir Duke after his career-best 107 yard rushing game with two touchdowns against the Jets last week. Emphasis on against the Jets. This is a run defense that isn't just the worst in the league because they allow the most fantasy points and most touchdowns to running backs, it could be historically bad. Then there's the fact that Johnson got so much run because Myles Gaskin had missed all week of practice due to COVID. It's more likely we see a timeshare between the two in Week 16.
That's all good and well because a good running game can support two RBs for fantasy, as we've seen in Denver, Green Bay, and Philadelphia. This one can't. The Dolphins have a terrible offensive line and that has led to the third-lowest Rush DVOA at -26% this year. Now, they'll have to square off with the Saints run defense that allows the fewest rushing yards per attempt (3.54) in the league. Basically, Miami is going from the best possible matchup for running backs to the worst. That's a prime recipe for RB busts.
The fact that New Orleans is starting Ian Book at QB could put game script in Miami's favor and lead to more attempts but the efficiency simply won't be there and the opportunity is uncertain at best.
Should I Start D.K. Metcalf in Week 16?
To quote Del the Funky Homosapien, "You had your chance and you blew it."
Metcalf was set to have his rebound game in Week 15 with Tyler Lockett sidelined and a pass-heavy game script. It didn't matter. Although he was targeted a season-high 12 times, he came down with six receptions for 52 yards and no TD. That was adequate enough to make him WR26 in full PPR leagues but that's it.
The matchup looks a lot better as the Seahawks take on the Bears but it doesn't really matter. Lockett is back so we can expect Metcalf's target share to drop back to single digits. He's catching 59.5% of his targets this season with some of his best games coming when Geno Smith was quarterback.
In three starts with Geno Smith, Metcalf scored three touchdowns. In six games with Russell Wilson since he returned from injury, Metcalf has zero touchdowns and a high of 60 yards in a single game. There's simply no reason to keep starting Metcalf anymore unless you rely on name recognition rather than numbers to set your lineup.
Should I Start Chase Claypool in Week 16?
As we've seen in the case of Metcalf already, physical talent alone isn't what determines success on the gridiron. While Metcalf's issue is his QB and lack of chemistry, Claypool is his own worst enemy. Between excessively stupid late-game celebrations and altercations with coaches and teammates, he is playing his way off the field. His snap share was in the 90s during the midseason stretch but hasn't gone higher than 63% for three straight games.
Aside from that Minnesota game in Week 14 where he was targeted several times in the fourth quarter during Pittsburgh's comeback attempt, he saw three targets in Week 13 and two in Week 15. The opportunity isn't there and his floor is dangerously low in a crucial time for fantasy managers. There is a chance that he plays nice this week and the team leans on him as they try to keep pace with Kansas City but remember that they could be without Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, making it a lower-scoring game.
Should I Start Mike Gesicki in Week 16?
Drawing another parallel to Metcalf (above), Gesicki should have feasted in a plus matchup with the Jets while Jaylen Waddle was out. Instead, he kept his string of mediocre outings going. Gesicki has only finished as a top-10 tight end in PPR formats once since Week 8. Not coincidentally, he hasn't reached the end zone since then. When both DeVante Parker and Jaylen Waddle are on the field, the tight end just isn't a priority in this offense.
New Orleans has only allowed three touchdowns to tight ends all season and this game isn't expected to be a shootout. It's hard to find a good TE with more upside these days but if someone like Jared Cook or C.J. Uzomah is available, I'd feel better rolling with them.
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