Finding Tight End Breakouts - Champs, Chumps, and Contenders

November 28, 2021

Robert Lorge looks for fantasy football tight end breakouts heading into Week 12. He uses advanced stats for tight ends to find breakouts (champs) and fallers (chumps) to add or drop.

As fantasy football continues to grow in popularity there's a never-ending source of statistics and numbers to dissect a player's value. We often hear the moniker "knowledge is power", but it takes time to comb through all the data. Other positions' key stats are a bit easier and well-known. When it comes to tight ends, fantasy managers should be looking at a few key metrics. Their route percentage is crucial. When it comes to wide receivers, their snap count can suffice because so often when receivers are on the field, they're running routes on passing plays. That isn't the case for tight ends as some are asked to block more often than others. Other metrics that carry the most value are targets per game and end zone targets. If we want to get real crazy, tracking where each tight end is running their routes from is incredibly useful as well.

As the season progressed, these metrics have helped peg eventual breakouts from Dawson Knox and Pat Freiermuth, as well as the emergence of Dan Arnold, Week 11 notwithstanding. As we move into the playoff stretch of fantasy football, its crucial we're making good start/sit decisions. Those choices are likely no more difficult than at the tight end.

As indicated last week, now that we have 11 weeks of data on most of these players, so we should feel confident in knowing who they are and what to expect. Instead, we're going to be focusing our time and attention on some head-t0-head battles and helping make good lineup decisions. Fantasy matchups are more important now as playoff spots and byes are on the line, so let's get started. I asked Twitter for some questions as it pertains to tight ends moving forward and we'll tackle each one.

What to Make of Dan Arnold's Goose Egg?

Well... that sucked. From Weeks 5–10, Arnold was the TE12 in half-PPR scoring and was averaging 8.2 points per game. During that timeframe, he received five targets in each contest and seven in four out of five contests. He didn't score a single touchdown during that span, which makes his TE12 ranking even more impressive. He had been the leading receiver for the Jaguars in four out of those five games. He was a sure thing. Then Week 11 happened and Arnold didn't get a single target and put up a giant goose egg. So what should we make of that?

Logan Thomas coming back off IR, Dan Arnold (what was that 0 target dud in Week 11?) and can Noah Fant still produce with three good wide receivers?

— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) November 23, 2021

The good news is there wasn't a change in how many snaps the Jaguars choose to use Arnold. From Weeks 5–10, Arnold was on the field for 92% of Lawrence's pass attempts. This past Sunday, goose egg Sunday, he was on the field for 100% of Lawrence's 25 pass attempts. His route participation was actually higher this past Sunday compared to his Weeks 5–10 average, 96% vs 82.5%. In terms of his slot utilization, that stayed exactly the same – 56% during both time frames. His route percentage from the out wide position also stayed pretty much the same, 13% in Weeks 5–10 and 12% on Sunday.

Dan Arnold played a decent snap share, ran the second most routes behind only Marvin Jones, was only asked to pass block one time.

Just a tough matchup with a good D vs. tight ends. Got fewer targets than Trent Williams...

— Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco) November 22, 2021

Certainly, a zero outing is also scary and it's always difficult going back to the well after a performance such as this, but there's really nothing to suggest his role has changed whatsoever. In Week 11, the Jaguars played the 49ers, who are not just a tough matchup for tight ends, they are the hardest matchup for tight ends. On the season, they have only given up 3.8 half-PPR points per week to opposing tight ends.

In the end, fantasy managers are likely best completely forgetting about that Week 11 performance. It was the worst matchup he's seen or will see all season. The Jaguars' offense, unfortunately, is going to be susceptible to some bad performances because well, they're a bad offense. This is going to be especially true when they run into a good defense. That's what happened this past week. If we take anything away from this past performance, it's that Arnold is not a set it and forget it starter despite his excellent target share and peripheral numbers. Fantasy managers should have faith in continuing to start Arnold in more appealing matchups.

Can Fantasy Managers Trust Logan Thomas?

The short answer is yes, absolutely. Washington has used three tight ends this season and they've all had the same roles. In the first three games of the season, Logan Thomas played 100% of the snaps. When he got hurt, Ricky Seals-Jones played 99% of the snaps and when he got hurt, John Bates played 99% of the snaps.

WFT doesn't care who their tight end is. They never change the role.

John Bates played 66-of-67 snaps yesterday and ran 24 routes on 28 Heinicke dropbacks.

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) November 22, 2021

It doesn't matter who has played tight end for Washington, whoever the starter is has been given an excellent and very fantasy-friendly role. Despite being the third-string tight end, Bates was in a route on 86% of Heinicke's dropbacks, an elite percentage. He also ran 20 of his 24 routes from a wide receiver position, either in the slot or out wide.

During the first three weeks of the season, Thomas was on the field for 116 passing plays and was in a route on 100 of them, an 86% clip. Sound familiar? 91% of his 100 routes came from the slot or out wide position. With Ricky Seals-Jones now banged up, fantasy managers should expect Thomas to be back to his early-season role as long as he's healthy. With the complete and utter lack of a No. 2 target in Washington behind Terry McLaurin, there is a huge role waiting for Thomas and ample opportunity for him to cash in. If he's on your waiver wire and you're hurting at tight end, Thomas should be a priority add. As soon as he returns to the lineup, he should be treated as a top-10 option with upside.

Too Many Mouths to Feed in Denver?

This question is one of the more difficult ones to answer because the sample size is fairly limited in what we can look at. There have only been three games all season where Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and Noah Fant have played together. One of those three weeks was the very first game of the season, which was Sutton's first live game-action in a calendar season. He garnered only three targets that game and looked mostly like he was still getting his sea legs underneath him. If we remove that game because Sutton wasn't yet 100%, we're left with just a two-game sample. That makes it extremely difficult to draw any conclusions from, but let's see what we can do.

In Weeks 8 and 10, the best samples we have with the big-trio of Denver's pass-catchers being active, two-glove Teddy attempted 62 passes. The results were...concerning. Jeudy led the way with a 21% target share, but after him, it was a complete cluster. Fant had a 16% target share, Tim Patrick was at 15% and Courtland Sutton was 11%. The running back duo of Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon accounted for a 22.5% target share. Some fantasy managers could choose to take solace in that Fant was the No. 3 in targets on the team behind Jeudy and the running backs, but the margin for error is huge.

Teddy Bridgewater has fed the following guys at least five targets in four games with Jerry Jeudy:

Jeudy: 28
...
Tim Patrick: 18
Noah Fant: 17
Albert Okwuegbunam: 14
...
Courtland Sutton: 12
Melvin Gordon: 12
Javonte Williams: 8

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 24, 2021

The small sample size makes it difficult to come to any concrete conclusions, but what we see is that Teddy has completely spread the ball around and fantasy managers shouldn't be expecting this to change. Jeudy should be expected to lead the way most weeks, but after that, it really is anyone's guess. That makes it incredibly difficult to fantasy managers to fully trust Fant in their lineups. If there's a silver lining, its Fant's red zone stats.

He leads all Denver players with 13 red zone targets, but that number drops to just three inside the 10-yard line. So while fantasy managers should enjoy the fact that he's getting a decent number of targets inside the red zone, it isn't quite as good as it looks. The worst part is because of how well the three Denver receivers are playing, Fant is being used almost exclusively as an in-line tight end, which significantly limits his upside. In Weeks 8 and 10, Fant ran just 28.5% of his routes from the slot or out wide position. That's because Denver has three receivers they don't want to take off the field.

Moving forward, fantasy managers are best served to treat Fant as a high-end TE2, but he's unlikely to provide week-to-week value. It's easy to put Fant into the streaming category because of his natural athletic gifts, but unfortunately, those are not being put on display. He's averaging just 39 air yards per game and sports a miserable 5.9-yard average depth of target.

Best Tight End Streamers for Week 12?

1. Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team 

We've already talked about Thomas above, but he's only rostered in 49% of leagues on ESPN and if he's active this weekend, fantasy managers shouldn't be afraid to throw him right back into their starting lineups. The dilemma is fantasy managers have three games being played on Thursday and Thomas doesn't play until Monday. Defining Thomas as a streamer requires us to get some positive information on Thomas' playing status prior to the early games on Sunday afternoon.

If fantasy managers get the green light that Thomas is going to be active, fantasy managers should expect to see a near 100% snap share. With Ricky Seals-Jones banged up and possibly out this week himself, Thomas should be welcomed back to a heavy workload. The No. 2 target the past few weeks has been DeAndre Carter, which shows how desperate Washington is for another weapon behind Terry McLaurin.

The Seattle defense has allowed the fifth-most points to opposing tight ends this season. Russell Wilson and the Seattle offense has struggled since he's returned from his IR-stint, but a matchup against Washington who has allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks AND wide receivers means Washington may find themselves playing catch-up. Fantasy managers shouldn't expect three duds in a row from a quarterback of Wilson's caliber and this is a get-right game if there ever was one. If the Seattle offense shows up, which fantasy managers should expect, Washington may be forced to air it out to keep it close.

2. Dan Arnold, Jacksonville Jaguars

The goose egg sucked and we talked about that above, but his utilization hasn't changed at all. Jamal Agnew suffered a season-ending hip injury, which opens up even more targets for Arnold. From Weeks 5–11, Arnold is ninth among all tight ends in targets. That's with his bye week coming during that time AND with a game of zero targets. He's also ninth among tight ends in receptions and receiving yards during that span. That's the kind of usage fantasy managers should be chasing and he's still just rostered in 36.6% of leagues on ESPN.

Fantasy managers will likely look at the matchup and see Atlanta and think it's an easy one, but unfortunately, that's not completely accurate. They've allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season. This is because they have a run-funnel defense, which means James Robinson could be in line for a big game.

Still, Arnold is the Jaguars' leading receiver since coming over via trade from Carolina. Fantasy managers shouldn't be afraid to start a tight end who just so happens to be his team's leading receiver, especially when another one of the team's primary pass-catchers was just lost to a season-ending injury. I'd expect the Jaguars' coaching staff to make an effort to get Arnold involved early in this one after not drawing a single target last week.

The Falcons' defense is giving up 28.8 points per week, which is the second-highest in the NFL. The Jaguars' defense is giving up the eighth-most points at 26.2 points. Fantasy managers shouldn't be surprised if this game turns into a bit of a shoot-out as there are two of the worst defenses involved.

3. Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears

Fantasy managers are likely to be turned off by Andy Dalton starting, but there's no reason to be. In Week 1 when Andy Dalton was the starter, Kmet racked up six targets and caught five of them for 42 yards. Dalton doesn't have Fields' escapability and with a terrible offensive line, Dalton could find himself looking Kmet's way early and often.

Kmet's role had been trending up until Week 11. In Kmet's defense, a quarterback change in the middle of the game is a difficult thing to deal with for the whole offense. However, from Week 5–10, Kmet had a 22% target share for the Bears and was averaging six targets per game to go along with four catches and 45 yards. He's been a frequent talking point in this article all season because his utilization has been fantastic.

He's run 72% of his snaps from the slot or out wide position, which is an excellent number. One of the reasons his numbers took a nosedive in Week 11 was because he was asked to stay in and block more than he had since Week 4. He was asked to block on 32% of the passing downs he was on the field for. From Weeks 1–10, he was only being asked to block on 18% of the passing plays.

His Week 12 matchup isn't a great one, although that has more to do with the Lions' defense being a run-funnel defense like the Falcons. They've given up just the eight-fewest points to opposing tight ends this season. However, it appears Allen Robinson will once again be sidelined, which makes Kmet the No. 2 option in this passing offense. The Bears' will likely try to lean on David Montgomery as much as possible, but it shouldn't be surprising to see Dalton zero in on Kmet when he drops back.

4. Evan Engram, New York Giants

I wish I could put Engram higher because after all, he's got the best matchup in all of football for tight ends. The Eagles have given up the most points to opposing tight ends this season at 11.5 points per game. Here's the thing, can we really trust Engram to take advantage of it? I don't think we can. He's given us no reason to believe that we can.

In eight games this season, Engram has 28 catches and 236 yards. He's pacing for a 56 catch and 472-yard season. The most receiving yards he has in one game is 55. He's been under 30 yards five times. Sterling Shepard was seen with the wide receiver group in practice yesterday, which is a positive sign he might be able to return this week. Kenny Golladay is healthy, for once. Then there's still Kadarius Toney and Darius Slayton. Not to mention Saquon Barkley. There's a lot of target competition Engram is fighting with.

To make matters worse, Daniel Jones has been absolutely terrible lately. The offensive coordinator change from Jason Garrett to Freddie Kitchens should not provide any hope. There's a lot going on this week in New York and none of it is good. That said, he's got an excellent matchup and he continues to be employed as a wide receiver. He's run 83% of his routes from the slot or out wide.

On the season, the Giants have five (5!!!) players averaging between 4.0 and 5.3 targets per game.......all of whom will be playing on Sunday. Engram is one of them, but that kind of target distribution is worrisome. Engram hasn't done anything since 2019 to tell fantasy managers he can take advantage of a good matchup, but when it comes to the tight end position, sometimes all we have to depend on is a good matchup. That's going to keep Engram in play this weekend. Proceed with caution – you're always playing with fire when the only thing you like about a particular player is their matchup and that's true for Engram.

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