Booms and Busts - Starts and Sits for Week 9 Lineups

November 7, 2021

Brandon's fantasy football start em and sit em for Week 9 lineups in 2021. Sneaky players to start that may boom, and typical starters to disappoint or bust.

After a week where we saw the cream rise to the top, Week 8 was back to the wild wild west in the world of fantasy football. At quarterback, it was the week of backups performing beyond expectation as Mike White, Geno Smith, and Cooper Rush all finished as QB1 options. Meanwhile, running backs and tight ends both saw their fair share of surprising performances that likely caught fantasy managers off guard as they kept in traditional starters. At the wide receiver position, the upper echelon players seemed to hold their ground last week even as craziness set in at the other skill positions. It was the one position on the week where playing your studs turned out to be the correct strategy and put you in a good position to win.

It's weeks like Week 8 that create doubt in the minds of fantasy managers. With stars underperforming and waiver level players finishing high in the ranks for the week, confusion can set in on exactly what is the right move for your rosters. But several variables factor in while setting a final starting lineup. Depending on how Thursday night goes, you could be playing from behind and needing to take risks and swing for the fences with sleepers. On the other hand, you could be ahead in your matchup, and a safe floor play could be the best route to take to ensure a victory. No matter what, having a grasp on trends with analytics can only help fantasy managers weekly.

Analytics can be what separates the championship contenders in leagues from the pretenders. At this stage of the fantasy season, It's essentially "moving day" as wins become important for playoff positioning. But also bunching wins together could be what is needed to sneak into the postseason. With eight weeks under our belt, the data is there to grasp a full understanding of players that are primed for big weeks based on a positive matchup. We can also use this data to avoid the landmines that could seem like "no brainer" starters in your lineup only to end up disappointing you and setting your team up for a loss. That's where I come into play, as I dive into the numbers to help guide you towards some of those names in fantasy for Week 9.

Week 9 Woos - Fantasy Football Booms

Tyrod Taylor vs. Miami Dolphins

This week, Taylor will be seeing his first start since going down with a hamstring injury in Week 2. And with just a game and a half sample size to go off of, Taylor was showing the ability to be a fringe QB1 in fantasy, based on production. Playing with the Texans, game scripts will be in his favor most weeks. As should be the case yet again in his first game back as he will be facing a Dolphins defense that has been the worst in the league over the past four games in points allowed to the position (25.51 FPPG). No other team has allowed more passing yards over the last month (1,356). This game could be sneaky high scoring as both have subpar defenses, which could lead to plenty of yardage being accumulated. If you are in a pinch at QB (Kyler Murray is very questionable), Taylor could be a sound pick-up for a spot start in Week 9.

Boston Scott vs. Los Angeles Chargers

With all of the hype surrounding Kenneth Gainwell heading into Week 8 action, it was Boston Scott and Jordan Howard that took control of the Eagles backfield as they both found the end-zone twice. Scott always tends to play well in spot duty when given the chance. His 60 yards and two scores were good enough to help him finish as the RB7 just a week ago - something that he has a very good chance at repeating in Week 9. He will be facing a Chargers defense that has been very generous to opposing running backs over the last month (34.83 FPPG). Although he may not bring much upside as a pass-catcher in this game, the Eagles could have very well found their groove in the running game last week. Scott is a very solid plug and play as an RB2 in this matchup.

Van Jefferson vs. Tennessee Titans

Jefferson has found a solid role in the Rams passing attack in his second NFL season. He has been a weapon for Matthew Stafford down the field as he ranks inside the top 15 in both average target distance (13.7) and yards per reception (16.3). With 13 targets and a score over the past two games, Jefferson finds himself in the Flex discussion for Week 9. He gets the benefit of a plus matchup this week against a Titans defense that has been abysmal over the last month against opposing wideouts (43.63 FPPG). The Titans are first in targets allowed (111), tied for first in receptions (71), and second in yards (784) over that span. Not a good sign as they go on the road to face the high-powered Rams. Jefferson could be a sneaky play as your WR3/Flex this week.

Jared Cook @ Philadelphia Eagles

Cook has been fairly consistent when it comes to his involvement in the Chargers' passing game. But translation to fantasy production has been another story. He currently sits in the top 10 in both targets (38) and air yards (300), but his 8.7 FPPG places him at just TE17 on the years. He could find himself on the good side of production in Week 9 as he faces an Eagles defense that has been one of the worst in the league over the last four games (19.15 FPPG). With a lot of coverage focused on the receivers for the Chargers in this game, Cook could certainly thrive and be in play as a fringe TE1.

Week 9 Boos - Fantasy Football Busts

Ryan Tannehill @ Los Angeles Rams

My, how things have changed for the Titans offense over the course of a few days. With Derrick Henry likely lost for the season, the pressure of this offense now lies squarely on the shoulders of Tannehill. It couldn't come at a worse time as he has been very underwhelming this year based on the preseason hype going in. He currently sits inside the top 10 in passing yards (2,002) but most other metrics have been mediocre at best. He's got just 10 passing scores on the year (17th) which has pulled down his fantasy points per game to just 17.9, putting him 15th at the position. The going will likely be tough for the Titans in their first game without Henry as they go on the road to play a stout Rams defense that has been great against quarterbacks over the last four games (13.53 FPPG). With other quarterbacks stepping up in recent weeks, Tannehill should be placed squarely on fantasy benches this week.

Chase Edmonds @ San Francisco 49ers

You could say that Edmonds has been somewhat of a surprise to begin the 2021 season. His role in the Cardinals offense has been multifaceted as he ranks 16th in rushing yards (427) and 11th in receiving yards (211). His 30 receptions (8th) has kept his value afloat but with just one score on the year, it has led to a subpar output in FPPG (12.2). He could be in store for a long day in Week 9 as he faces a strong 49ers defense that has allowed just 14.87 FPPG to opposing running backs over the last four games. Add in the fact that they have been stingy to pass-catching backs as well (10 receptions) and you have a recipe for a bad week for Edmonds. Most fantasy managers will still be playing in as a Flex option this week, but tempering expectations would be advised.

Mike Williams @ Philadelphia Eagles

The receiver that was the talk of the league during the first month, Williams has just disappeared during the last two games. Most of it has been due to extra coverage by opposing defenses, but four receptions for just 46 yards is simply not going to cut it for fantasy managers. Most of his advanced metrics have begun to fall off like receptions (29th with 35) and air yards (17th with 660). But his six scores on the season have helped keep his FPPG strong (13th at 17.8). But odds are he could be in for a tough matchup in Week 9 against Darius Slay and an Eagles defense that has allowed just 25.40 FPPG to receivers over the last four games. He will still be in most fantasy lineups barring incredible depth as a WR2, but I would not expect to see him return that production this week.

Mark Andrews vs. Minnesota Vikings

Andrews, after the slow start, has been the fantasy tight end that we all thought we were drafting. All the advanced metrics for Andrews have been excellent to date. He's sixth in targets (51), fourth in receptions (37), and second in receiving yards (516). His 15.8 FPPG lands him as the TE2 on the season as well. All that being said, Andrews is locked into fantasy lineups each week without question. But given how volatile the position is there will be weeks where he finishes outside the top 10. Week 9 could be one of those as he faces a Vikings defense that has been very stingy in points allowed to the position over the last four games (4.80 FPPG).

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