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Jake Finnen provides his NBA DFS prop picks for Monday, October 25nd, 2021 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy basketball advice.
If anything, the hype around this season increases every night, multiplying with every Jalen Green and Ja Morant take-off. Some star players have struggled early on and it has created a window of opportunity for people like Chris Duarte, De'Anthony Melton, and Davion Mitchell to bask in the well-deserved spotlight. While no team has played more than three games yet this season, it feels like for most of these teams, their rotations are figuring themselves out as they should. There are a few exceptions, but what do you expect from the Eastern Conference's 14-seed?
Nine games on Monday with only one out-of-conference matchup, so seeding and playoff implications are technically on the line. Feel free to go to the NBA Chat Room to ask about specific games and bets, but these are the four best options for tonight. Some of these wagers are based on fantasy points, so make sure you are understanding where you place your money.
MonkeyKnifeFight.com is always ahead of the curve with their canceling of contests amid postponements, so don't worry about wasting money on a player or game that might not play. As always, you can find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter with any questions, especially since lines and players are subject to change throughout the day.
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MIL @ IND
Malcolm Brogdon (IND) MORE 41.5 Fantasy Points - Khris Middleton (MIL) MORE 38.5 Fantasy Points
If Jrue Holiday sits this game, smash more for both of these players and don't look back. If Holiday does play, Malcolm Brogdon should still be more, but Middleton's stats might take just enough of a hit to keep him under the 39 fantasy points he needs. The Bucks at full-strength have enough options so their offense can be shifted in certain directions, towards specific players, if one player is having a bad night. Between these teams, the Pacers paint defense won't make it easy for Milwaukee to score at will, but the Bucks ability to space the floor and hit shots will keep Myles Turner floating in the half-court, rather than camping the paint.
Likewise, the Bucks backcourt defense will make it tough for the Pacers to get up shots, but the physicality of Indiana's guards combined with Domantas Sabonis create offense on their own. This game won't be pretty, and it'll come down to whichever team converts the most three's and has the best bench production. Sabonis has dominated these matchups before, so look for the him to initiate most of Indiana's offense with Brogdon as the wingman.
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WAS @ BKN
Kevin Durant (BKN) MORE 30.5 Points - Spencer Dinwiddie (BKN) MORE 19.5 Points
Kevin Durant is having to pick up the slack being left by his teammates, but he doesn't really seem to complaining and we aren't either. As long as James Harden sits back and lets Durant do whatever he wants, we can benefit from how the box score is going to play out by riding the Durant-wave until it hits shore. The Wizards defense is about as useful as any defense is in terms of containing Durant, so as long as he doesn't have a horrible game, there will be plenty of possessions for him to crush his point threshold.
For Spencer Dinwiddie, he's in a situation where it's either he has a big game and the Wizards win, or he plays bad and they lose. Without Bradley Beal, Washington doesn't have the caliber of players throughout their roster that can actually dictate the pace of an offense. Dinwiddie can, has, and will continue to do so until Beal returns takes every ounce of momentum Dinwiddie is currently building.
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NOP @ MIN
Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) LESS 45.5 Fantasy Points - Jonas Valanciunas (NOP) MORE 38.5 Points
Karl-Anthony Towns was held to around 40 Fantasy Points in the first matchup between these two teams Saturday, shooting 50% from the field and only missing his projected by a few rebounds. The three blocks are a huge plus, but even if he repeats his scoring performance, he hasn't really instilled a lot of confidence that he will do anything outside of that. Nothing entirely against him, but his team is comprised of players that are much more aggressive in terms of rebounding and getting those hustle stats. He has the height to grab rebounds, but he also wouldn't be the only 7-footer in the league that is a bad rebounder.
However, who that refers to is not, by any means, Jonas Valanciunas. Valanciunas actually dominated this matchup from a statistical standpoint and surpassed his projected on just points and rebounds alone. The Pelicans still lost, but the lineups they are putting out on the court is who they are trying to win with and their record isn't reflective of their entire team. Valanciunas has no choice but to put up big games in favorable matchups like this until Zion Williamson is able to return.
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POR @ LAC
Damian Lillard (POR) LESS 29.5 Points - Paul George (LAC) MORE 28.5 Points
It's been a struggle for Damian Lillard to start this season, but you can also say it's a stretch to call anything a struggle after just the three games. He's put up numbers in the games he's played in, but he has yet to have one of those big Lillard type nights. C.J. McCollum has been the better scorer so far and Lillard is a good enough player to know that he doesn't need to force his own shot for him to be useful. There's a reason why his assist numbers have been increasing lately and although his points have taken a hit, it's only a matter of time before his average is back above 24-25 points.
Now, to the NBA's leading scorer through three games, Paul George. There's no reason to doubt him in this situation, especially against this defense, but really against any defense there is no answer for George playing up to his potential. There's nothing he can't do and his limits are simply missing open shots and just not converting possessions to points. George has always been a solid regular season player and even if he does have a habit of shying away from the spotlight, in situations like these, where even he has admitted the Clippers are without their best player, he thrives.
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