The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 26

September 19, 2021

Jamie Steed's list of busts and overvalued players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 26 of the fantasy season.

Welcome back to The Cut List, the penultimate one of the season. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. Normally, we cover players who are worth monitoring for replacing and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now. With just two weeks of the regular season left, there simply isn't time to 'monitor' someone for a few days so we're doing things a little differently.

For the remainder of the season, we're just going to look at players who are likely worth cutting in some (or all) league formats as well as the names you requested on Reddit. As always, we can't cover every player and the decision to drop someone is also dependant on who you will replace them with. It's the time of year where dropping a productive player in a certain category is also justifiable if you can benefit in another category you can score more roto points in.

I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump a star for a random player who is on the only hot streak he'll ever have in his career. After last year's shortened season and lack of a Minor League season, we're into a bit of an unknown with some players having made more appearances this year than the last two combined. Another little wrinkle we need to consider in our decision-making. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) are reflective of when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing

Austin Meadows - OF, Tampa Bay Rays - 92% rostered

It may seem odd suggesting you drop a hitter with 100 RBI and while I'm not suggesting Meadows is just a flat-out drop in leagues, there is a case for it. His inclusion is purely down to a big reduction in playing time due to his struggles against left-handed pitching (LHP), leaving him as a platoon bat for the Rays.

Since September 01st, Meadows has had just eight plate appearances against LHP. Compare that to other Rays outfielders; Manuel Margot (27), Randy Arozarena (26), Jordan Luplow (23), Brandon Lowe (21), Kevin Kiermaier (12) and Brett Phillips (6). Luplow and Lowe predominantly have played first and second base respectively but what has become clear is against LHP, the Rays will start Margot and Arozarena while splitting time between Kiermaier, Phillips and Meadows.

With Phillips and Kiermaier ranking significantly better as defensive options, Meadows' only route to regular playing-time against LHP is by hitting well against them. And he simply hasn't done that. Meadows has a .190/.267/.266 line against LHP this year (180 plate appearances) and has homered just twice. Against RHP, Meadows has a .252/.334/.554 line (377 plate appearances) with 23 homers.

Kiermaier hit the Covid related IL on Saturday although it's unclear as of now if he's tested positive, is a close contact or just has symptoms. Even then, the Rays starting lineup yesterday didn't include Meadows (even though Nelson Cruz sat out with a forearm injury) with Tarik Skubal starting for the Tigers.

If Kiermaier does miss significant time, the Rays are likely to go with Phillips in center field because of his defense with Margot in right field. Meadows did pinch-hit for Luplow in the sixth inning when the Tigers sent a RHP to the mound and finished up going 1-for-2.

Next week, of the Rays six games they are lined up to face three left-handed starters so Meadows might only play three times and they'll be against Alek Manoah (3.39 ERA), Sandy Alcantara (3.10 ERA) and Edward Cabrera (5.31 ERA). So on paper, Meadows has potentially one good matchup next week which isn't ideal if you're chasing in roto or playing in your head-to-head final.

The Rays have shown a propensity to play matchups early in games like they did yesterday but there's still no guarantee Meadows will get more than one or two pinch-hit chances against rightie relievers. That also works the other way, when teams send a leftie reliever out to face Meadows, expect him to be pinch-hit for.

Verdict - Meadows end of season line will be impressive and he's certainly been a fantasy asset this season, ranking eighth overall in RBI (third among outfielders). But Meadows is unlikely to play much next week and when he does, hasn't got very friendly matchups. By the final week of the season, the Rays will more than likely have sealed the no.1 seed in the American League and are probably going to be looking to keep their players fresh for the postseason, furthering the possibility of Meadows lacking much playing time. 

Jake McGee - RP, San Francisco Giants - 86% rostered

This one needs much less analysis. McGee hit the IL on Friday (retroactive to Tuesday). He's eligible to return on September 24 which in theory, would give McGee more than a week to still pick up saves. The concern is, he's been put on the IL with oblique discomfort and oblique injuries are notoriously difficult to gauge in terms of a return.

The discomfort was felt earlier in the week so the fact the Giants didn't immediately put McGee on the IL does suggest they believe it might only be a minor issue and McGee could return when first able to do so. The severity of an oblique strain can determine whether someone is back in a few days or a few months so we simply won't know how soon McGee will return until he begins throwing.

The Giants will be either no.1 seeds in the National League or have a Wildcard game to contend with so the Giants aren't in a position to be conservative. In all likelihood, by September 24th the Giants won't have a clearer playoff picture so we don't need to consider whether they rush McGee back or not.

Truth be told, McGee won't be able to pitch until the oblique is properly healed so rushing him back and McGee pitching through discomfort isn't an option. The Giants current situation does lean towards them bringing McGee back as soon as they can rather than giving him additional rest if that's not absolutely necessary.

Verdict - McGee can be dropped if you don't have the option of sitting him on your bench or an IL spot. It's unlikely you'll have IL spots used up by players who will be returning this season and can provide more value than McGee could for ten days. But if you don't have a spare roster spot or are secure in your place for saves in roto leagues, McGee can be considered droppable given the uncertainty of him returning in the regular season.

Carlos Hernandez - SP, Kansas City Royals - 33% rostered

Hernandez has seen his rostership increase significantly in recent weeks, largely in part to his 2.62 ERA from 55.0 IP (nine starts) since July 18th when he joined the Royals rotation. That was until his last start against Oakland on Wednesday which saw Hernandez yield seven earned runs on nine hits and four walks in four innings. That saw his ERA jump to 3.90 on the year and 3.51 as a starter (ten starts).

That outing maybe shouldn't have come as a surprise as a look at his underlying numbers will tell us he's been pretty fortunate with his ERA. Since joining the starting rotation, Hernandez had a 4.89 xFIP and 4.91 SIERA while his 21.6% K% on the year is only in the 34th percentile. He's also seen his strikeout rate drop to 18.1% as a starter.

Hernandez made his Major League debut last year, throwing just 26.1 innings and only threw 57.2 innings in 2019 between rookie and Single-A. He then skipped Double-A and pitched 26.1 innings in Triple-A this year before his promotion to the Royals so it shouldn't come as a surprise that Hernandez is showing signs of struggling with such a small sample of higher-level Minor League experience.

Verdict - If you picked up Hernandez, you've likely had the best results you'll get from him this year. He does have three starts scheduled against the Indians, Tigers and Twins so has a soft schedule to finish out his rookie campaign. But given his underlying numbers, his last outing could be a sign of things to come and he's droppable in shallower redraft leagues.

Luis Gil - SP/RP, New York Yankees - 28% rostered

On the surface, Gil is having an impressive (albeit small) debut season with the Yankees. Saturday marked his sixth start of the MLB season and he has a 3.07 ERA and 1.33 WHIP across 29.1 IP. He's also struck out 38 batters with a 29.5% K%. He came to notice following his debut on August 03rd when he threw six shutout innings against the Orioles and soon followed that up with five shutout innings against the Mariners.

Gil then blanked the Red Sox over 4.2 IP (despite walking four batters) which left him at 15.2 IP without allowing a run to start his MLB career. That Red Sox start should've acted as a warning beacon as in his three outings following that game, Gil has walked 12 batters in 13.2IP while striking out 20. As nice as the strikeouts are, his control is an issue and Gil has now only completed five innings once in his last four starts and is sporting a 14.7% BB%.

Gil was sent back to Triple-A following yesterday's start but that's the fourth time the Yankees have done that since his debut in order to rotate their bullpen a bit. So I do think he'll be back up again given the Yankees struggles with keeping their rotation healthy although Gil could find himself in the bullpen to see out the season. If you did pick up Gil in fantasy, you've likely had the best from him already.

If we look at Gil's Triple-A numbers from this year, they pretty much match what Gil has done over his last four MLB starts. In 11 appearances (10 starts) at Triple-A, Gil completed 46.1 IP with a 4.66 ERA, 30.3% K% and 14.1 BB%. Gil also has a 4.85 xFIP and 4.55 SIERA in the Majors so can consider himself fortunate his MLB ERA isn't higher than it is.

The next time Gil will be available to pitch for the Yankees will be during their series with Boston and that's followed by series' against Toronto and Tampa Bay to see out the season. Jameson Taillon is expected to be back to slot into the rotation again which would leave Gil without a place on the roster other than in the bullpen.

Verdict - Unless there's another injury/illness or Taillon has a setback, Gil doesn't have a spot in the rotation so even if he returns to the Yankees, it'll likely be in a relief role. Given his control struggles, Gil only provides value for those in need of strikeouts but with a detrimental effect on your WHIP. And with a 6.59 ERA over his last three starts, those walks are turning into runs so don't expect Gil to help your team's ERA either.

The Reddit Requests

Here are some names from the readers following last weekend's post on Reddit. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature.

Hyun Jin Ryu - SP, Toronto Blue Jays - 94% rostered

Ryu is having a down year with a 4.34 ERA being his highest in MLB (outside of the 11.57 ERA he had in 2016 from just 4.2 IP). His 20.2% K% is the lowest it's been since his rookie year in 2013 yet his 13 wins are one shy of matching his career-high in MLB. Although prior to his last two starts, Ryu had a respectable 3.77 ERA.

That's because his last two starts were disastrous, giving up 12 earned runs in just 4.1 IP combined. The 12 runs came from 13 hits and two walks with four of the hits clearing the fences and the 22 homers allowed this year tie his career-high (2017). Those two outings also came against the Twins and Orioles, who rank 15th and 26th in runs scored respectively.

Ryu also had a similarly dreadful outing on August 26th, allowing seven earned runs in 3.2 IP against the White Sox and had the same line against the Red Sox on August 8. Since July 01st (14 starts), Ryu has a 5.53 ERA in 70.0 IP with just five quality starts. Ryu is lined up to face the Rays, Yankees and Orioles to see out the regular season so potentially has a couple of solid matchups but the Orioles have just tagged him for runs and the Yankees offense is so streaky, they may be heating up by the time they face Ryu.

In deeper leagues, there's unlikely a better option on waivers most weeks than Ryu and the Toronto offense has helped him to pick up wins all season, providing he can get through five innings. He lacks the strikeout numbers to have much of a floor in fantasy too (26th percentile in K%). In shallower leagues, I totally understand if you do drop Ryu for another option or to stream etc. He's been so boom or bust in recent weeks unless you need to chase in your league, he can be benched or dropped in shallower leagues.

Jacob deGrom - SP, New York Mets - 92% rostered

A few weeks ago I mentioned how you can drop deGrom if you didn't have the availability on your IL or bench to hold him in the hope he might pitch again this year. News emerged that deGrom had a sprained UCL but is now on the road to recovery and threw off a mound earlier this week.

By the time deGrom is cleared to return to the Mets, they may well be eliminated from the playoff race so it'd be completely foolhardy for the Mets to bring him back for a meaningless game. But this is the Mets we are talking about so I have no doubt they would still do it.

For fantasy purposes, with just two weeks left of the season, it's unlikely we see deGrom pitch more than ten innings and that is the most optimistic guess. But if you've still kept him on your roster, it's highly unlikely you have better stashes on your IL at this point of the season so you might as well ride it out and see if he does indeed get back to pitching for the Mets.

Despite being the best pitcher on the planet, I still don't consider him a slam dunk starter in fantasy given the nature of his injury. So if you're in first place or holding on to a narrow advantage anywhere, it's not a 100% sure thing to start him anyway. But you might not want your opponent or the second-place team to take a chance on him so dropping him probably isn't a good idea unless you desperately need the roster spot he's using up.

Yoan Moncada - 3B, Chicago White Sox - 84% rostered

Moncada has probably been the most regularly featured player on The Cut List this year and has been a common name brought up on the Reddit threads. Given he had an ADP of ~85 this season, his numbers have fallen short of what was expected. Moncada currently sports a .267/.380/.407 line with 12 homers, 65 runs, 56 RBI and three steals from 131 games.

If we look at his career numbers prior to this year, it seems as though the fantasy community may have been overvaluing Moncada a bit. Before 2021, Moncada had a career .260/.335/.448 line and his 162-game averages are 23 homers, 89 runs, 77 RBI and 10 steals. This year, his 162-game pace is 15 homers, 80 runs, 69 RBI and four steals. A down year perhaps, but even if he matched his pre-2021 averages, would that quantify at a player worth drafting with the 85th pick in fantasy?

So I believe the perception is that he's been worse than he actually has and that he was overvalued in drafts. That doesn't cover the fact Moncada hasn't been great and among third-base eligible players, he ranks tied-40th in homers, 26th in runs, tied-26th in RBI and tied-40th in steals. His batting average ranks 22nd among third basemen with 300+ plate appearances.

The big letdown with drafting Moncada is the lack of steals. Given he had 111 stolen bases in 272 Minor League games, it's become clear he won't reach that potential in the Majors despite ranking no worse than the 66th percentile in sprint speed in any MLB season. He's totaled just 28 stolen bases in 526 Major League games.

Moncada doesn't hurt you in any category but he also isn't going to tilt any in your favor. Whether or not you drop him depends on the rest of your roster and how it's constructed. If you're chasing in a specific category but are fine in all others, Moncada can be sacrificed to waivers but he's also fine to just stick in the corner infield spot (especially in deeper leagues) and just let him pick up a few runs and RBI while chipping in with the occasional homer and maybe even stolen base.

Wander Franco - 3B/SS, Tampa Bay Rays - 80% rostered

Franco hit the IL with a hamstring injury and looked set to miss significant time. But he's been taking batting practice and running the bases this week, opening the door to return when first eligible on Tuesday. The Rays could play things a little more cautiously given they're almost locked into the no.1 seed in the American League but it doesn't appear as though Franco will miss much more time.

The no.1 prospect in the game prior to his callup is having a very productive rookie campaign. In 62 games, he's hitting .285/.347/.463 with seven homers, 49 runs, 36 RBI and two steals. There's probably no other hitter on the IL that can have such a positive impact over the remainder of the season so Franco is definitely someone to keep hold of providing we don't receive any news of him missing the rest of the regular season.

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