EPL Betting Picks for Matchweek 5: English Premier League

September 16, 2021

Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchweek 5 of the 2021/22 season, starting on 09/17/2021. He breaks down the top English Premier League wagers, bets and picks for the soccer games

Another great weekend last time out saw us bag five of seven bets over the two games. Wolves beat Watford to bag us a nice +136 winner, although we whiffed on the total corners and our prop bet of there being a penalty. But we made up for it with a sweep of all our picks in the Brighton at Brentford game. Brighton bagged a 90th-minute winner as well as topping the corner count. All in all, a 168% ROI for the week. This week has seen European club competitions begin so we have games split across three days and it's something we need to take into consideration with our picks.

Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bets I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.

We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We'll be bringing you DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.

2021-22 EPL Betting Picks

• Total picks: 14-12-2 (+7.08 U)
• Match results: 7-3

Saturday, September 18th, 2021

Watford (+251) at Norwich City (+125) - 10:00 am ET

Two promoted teams come into this weekend in need of a win, Norwich more than the visitors. Norwich's defeat at Arsenal last weekend leaves them as the only pointless team in the EPL and with just one goal scored and 11 conceded, they have the worst goal difference. Last week's 1-0 loss flattered them too with goalkeeper Tim Krul making a series of good saves in the second half.

Watford comes into this on the back of three straight defeats after winning their season opener. We picked Watford to lose last weekend and mentioned how since taking a 3-0 lead in their first game, had conceded five goals without scoring again. They lost 2-0 to Wolves so have now conceded seven goals since they last scored. I do expect that to change this week.

In the Championship last season, despite Norwich finishing first and Watford second, Watford did the double over Norwich, winning both games 1-0. The season prior when both sides were relegated from the Premier League, Watford again won both meetings (2-0 and 2-1).

I'm a little apprehensive to go all-in on Watford given Norwich's start to the season saw them face three teams who finished in the top-5 last season and then Arsenal who finish 8th. Watford's start to the campaign has been easier with Tottenham being the only team they've faced who finished in the top half last season. Both teams will see this as a vital game to win and both teams will likely look to be more attacking than perhaps they have been in recent games.

We'll also include a prop bet on bookings in this game. Despite winning both games last season, Watford had four bookings in each match with Norwich picking up three in total. Watford has also picked up nine yellow cards this season compared to Norwich's five. Given their respective opponents so far, I'd have expected those totals to be reversed.

Score prediction: Norwich 1 - 2 Watford

Betting Picks:

• Moneyline - Watford win (+251) 0.5 units
• Draw no bet - Watford (+150) 1 unit
• Both teams to score - Yes (-114) 1.5 units
• Most booking points - Watford (+125) 1 unit

Sunday, September 19th, 2021

Chelsea (-122) at Tottenham (+356) - 11:30 am ET

Chelsea will look to further their title credentials after last week's comprehensive 3-0 win against Aston Villa. They've picked up ten points with the only blemish coming in a 1-1 draw with Liverpool, a game in which they played the entire second half with ten men. That was also the only goal they've conceded so far which came from the penalty spot.

Tottenham was brought back down to earth last week. After winning their first three games (all 1-0), they succumbed to Crystal Palace 3-0, after being reduced to ten men. Despite managing to keep hold of top scorer Harry Kane this Summer, Tottenham's 3.8 expected goals (xG) is the fourth-fewest in the EPL and only three teams have scored fewer than Tottenham.

In recent times, Chelsea has had the better of Tottenham, winning four of their last five league meetings while drawing one. Games between these two teams are generally tight as you need to go back to December 2014 (19 games ago) to find either team winning by more than two goals in any competition. Ten of those 18 games were either drawn or won by one goal.

Tottenham plays a very defensive and counter-attack-minded game against the bigger teams but Chelsea is one of the best defensively organized sides in Europe. If Tottenham does manage to pick up the win, it'll likely be by a 1-0 score themselves and I don't foresee both teams finding the back of the net on Sunday. Four of the last five games between them in the EPL have seen just one team score.

The fact Chelsea played at home in Europe on Tuesday while Tottenham had a trip to France on Thursday should also help Chelseas (despite Tottenham resting some of their regular starting XI).

Games between these two are normally feisty affairs with eleven bookings in the two games last season. The referee for this one is Paul Tierney who has dished out 15 yellows in four games so far this season (the most of any EPL ref) and took charge of one meeting between these two last season, issuing six yellow cards.

Tottenham also leads the league in yellow cards with 12 while Chelsea has had just three. I expect Tottenham to yield the majority of possession which should result in them picking up more bookings, something they're accustomed to.

Score prediction: Tottenham 0 - 1 Chelsea

Betting Picks:

• Moneyline - Chelsea (-122) 1 unit
• Both teams to score - No (-112) 1 unit
• Tottenham cards - Over 2.5  (+110) 0.5 units
• Most booking points - Tottenham  (+120) 0.5 units

Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!

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