The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 23

August 29, 2021

Jamie Steed's list of busts and overvalued players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 23 of the fantasy season.

Welcome back to The Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

The calendars flip over to September in the coming days, the final month of the regular season. We've already reached the point where MLB teams are regularly starting hitters no one has heard of, intriguing fantasy managers as to whether or not they should be rostered on their teams. While streaming a random hot hitter this time of year makes sense, the key is not to hold on to someone once they return to their norm and especially not dropping someone who performs considerably better than your latest addition the rest of the season.

I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump a star for a random player who is on the only hot streak he'll ever have in his career. We have more than enough of a sample size on most players to base our decisions on this year so should be looking at the bigger picture as much as possible. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) are reflective of when this piece was written.

Worth Dropping and Replacing

Dominic Smith - 1B/OF, New York Mets - 46% rostered

The Mets have been in a free fall over recent weeks. Back on August 1, they had a 3.5 game lead in the NL East but enter tonight's game 7.5 games back of the first-place Braves and only 8.5 games ahead of the last-place Marlins. It might not come as much surprise to find Smith has been struggling at the plate in recent times too.

Smith is not alone as a struggling Mets hitter this month. The Mets' 78 wRC+ in August is tied-27th in MLB and only ahead of the Rangers and Angels. This month has seen Smith hit just .198/.209/.235 with no homers, three runs scored and seven RBI. He has a 22 wRC+ for August. In truth, Smith has been underperforming all season.

He's hitting just .241/.301/.360 with eleven homers, 39 runs, 53 RBI and two steals. In 139 games over the previous two seasons, Smith had a .299/.366/.571 line with 21 homers and was projected to hit 20+ homers with around a .270 average, so has underachieved through the 123 games he's played so far.

The Mets finally have Javier Baez and Francisco Lindor healthy and manning the middle infield. That leaves Jeff McNeil, J.D. Davis and Jonathan Villar battling for time at third base with the former two both potential options in left field. McNeil did make a start in left field earlier this week and again on Saturday after not starting the previous two games. For now, Smith's playing time seems to be in jeopardy and that won't change if he doesn't start to contribute when he gets the chance.

Smith's expected numbers do suggest he's been unlucky (.263 xBA and .421 xSLG) so there's still a chance he does manage to improve in the final few weeks if he finds himself back in the lineup. But the Mets season is just drifting away into abject disappointment once again and even if Smith does begin to find some form at the plate, his supporting cast likely won't be of much help for fantasy.

Verdict - It's been a down season for Smith and after hitting .270/.340/.483 in July, his August has encapsulated the Mets as a whole. Given the most MLB games Smith has played in a season before this year was 89, it could be a case of fatigue dragging Smith's numbers down. But he's not shown enough to warrant being rostered in anything other than the deeper leagues throughout the season anyway.

Lewis Brinson - OF, Miami Marlins - 11% rostered

Brinson was one of the hottest additions earlier in August. Over a ten-game spell at the beginning of the month, Brinson hit .432/.475/.865 with four homers, ten runs and 15 RBI. It looked like the Marlins former No. 1 prospect was finally putting things together at the plate.

Coming into this season, Brinson had played 231 games for the Marlins over three years with a .195/.242/.305 slash line, 14 homers and seven steals. Prior to his hot streak, Brinson was hitting .223/.255/.383 with three homers, five runs and eight RBI on the year (28 games and 98 plate appearances).

Since that spell, which culminated in a two-homer game at the Padres, he's been hitting .111/.167/.156 with four runs, two RBI and a stolen base in 13 games. There's very little reason to believe his magical ten-game stretch was anything more than an aberration and not Brinson fulfilling the promise he had as a prospect.

Brinson has missed the last two Marlins games due to an injured thumb and could still end up on the IL. Even if Brinson avoids an IL stint, he may not find himself back in the lineup. Outside of that 10-game spell, Brinson hasn't been startable in fantasy nor has he been a good enough MLB hitter to justify starting games.

Verdict - If you picked up Brinson and benefited from his hot streak, well done. But you've maxed out what you'll get from him this year and he can be dropped in all leagues.

Hold For Now

Yusei Kikuchi - SP, Seattle Mariners - 56% rostered

Kikuchi was on the verge of having a great season, but recent outings have left him with an ok 4.33 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP and 145 strikeouts in 137.1 IP (24 starts). Kikuchi entered the All-Star break with a 3.48 ERA and still had a solid 3.73 ERA on August 8. But his three starts since then have seen Kikuchi allow 14 earned runs in 12.0 IP.

His K% in August has slipped down to 19.7%, while it was sitting at 26.7% prior to this month. Things have been punctuated by his seven earned runs in 2.2 IP against the Astros, in which Kikuchi served up three homers (a season-high). His last start on Thursday was a bit of a bounce-back, going 5.0 IP against the Royals, allowing four earned runs on four hits and a walk (zero homers).

In that game, Kikuchi held the Royals scoreless through the first five innings but allowed the first four batters to reach in the sixth inning before Joe Smith relieved him with the bases loaded and only one run scored. Smith promptly allowed a grand slam to ruin Kikuchi's line and prevent him from sealing his eighth win on the year.

Kikuchi's next start is scheduled to be against the Astros again. His four prior starts against the division rivals have cumulated in a 6.23 ERA so I'm not sure I'd be starting Kikuchi when he's facing Houston. But his ERA against all other teams is 3.65 and he's also got an impressive 3.65 xFIP and 3.98 SIERA on the year so I'm not ready to drop Kikuchi yet.

Logan Gilbert - SP, Seattle Mariners - 35% rostered

The second of our Mariners pitchers is rookie Logan Gilbert, who has also been struggling of late. After a so-so start to his MLB career (allowing seven earned runs in 6.2 IP over two starts), Gilbert was putting together a nice rookie campaign and had a respectable 4.05 ERA through his first 15 starts (73.1 IP) with 85 strikeouts.

Like Kikuchi, Gilbert's last three starts have been rough. He's failed to complete five innings and totaled just 12.2 IP while allowing 19 earned runs (striking out 13). Gilbert has only walked two batters in his last three starts but has allowed 25 hits. What is interesting though are his xFIP (4.25) and SIERA (4.10) during this rough spell, both of which are considerably better than the 13.50 ERA.

One thing we need to factor in for Gilbert is a lack of experience. He was only drafted in 2018 and debuted in 2019, pitching across three Minor League levels. He totaled 140.0 IP with a 2.12 ERA, 0.943 WHIP with 170 strikeouts so certainly showed his ability on the mound. With no Minor League season in 2020, Gilbert ended up making one start at Triple-A this year before his call-up to the Mariners and only has a total of 55 innings above the High-A level.

While his recent difficulties are a concern, Gilbert still has a 26.4% K% this year which is in the 66th percentile and a 5.4% BB% which is in the 88th percentile. That excellent walk rate has helped Gilbert put up a 1.23 WHIP and his underlying numbers are also promising.

Gilbert has a 4.00 xERA, 3.92 xFIP and 3.68 SIERA, all of which are considerably better than his ERA. Given his recent struggles, I understand not wanting to start Gilbert and why he's been dropped. But he's not been as bad as his numbers suggest and he's been a solid starter who puts up good strikeout numbers. The excellent walk rate will also limit damage and Gilbert still has a chance to be a good fantasy asset in any league.

On the Hot Seat

Adam Frazier - 2B/OF, San Diego Padres - 69% rostered

It's safe to say that Frazier's trade to the Padres hasn't quite panned out. When the Padres acquired Frazier, they were 5.5 games back of the Giants in first place of the NL West, two games back of the Dodgers and were six games clear of the Reds in the second wild card spot. Coming into today, the Padres trail the Giants by 16 games, the Dodgers by 13.5 games and trail the Reds by two games for the second wildcard spot.

As a member of the Padres, Frazier has himself been struggling. He's hitting .227/.272/.268 with 12 runs, two RBI and one stolen base (26 games). In 98 games with the Pirates prior to the trade, Frazier hit .324/.388/.448 with four homers, 58 runs, 32 RBI and five steals. We can see how his 162-game pace compares while with the Pirates and the Padres.

Obviously, I'm not suggesting Frazier only drives in 12 runs over a full season with the Padres but the numbers do show how poorly he (and the team) has been since the trade. At the time of the trade, the Padres 101 wRC+ ranked tied-10th while the Pirates 86 wRC+ ranked tied-26th. Since then, the Padres have an 86 wRC+ which ranks 25th. The Pirates are last (70 wRC+).

The biggest worry with Frazier is that his playing time is starting to diminish and he's no longer hitting leadoff when he does start. Frazier has only started three of the Padres' last seven games and he's hit seventh or eighth in those games. He has featured as a pinch hitter as well but is just 3-for-19 over these seven games.

Frazier has a career .280 batting average and given he has a .288 xBA this year (93rd percentile), I'm not prepared to simply right off Frazier. But truth be told unless he's hitting for an elite batting average, he provides very little fantasy value. There's next to no power, not much speed so depending on where he is in the batting order will dictate if he can provide runs or RBI.

If he's not hitting anywhere near a solid average, he isn't providing anything on offense and will continue to sit. That leaves him completely droppable in fantasy. I'm willing to give it another week to see if he does find himself starting regularly again, but if he sits more than he starts next week, there's a very strong case for dropping Frazier in all but the very deepest leagues.

The Reddit Requests

Here are some names from the readers following last weekend's post on Reddit. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature.

Jared Walsh - 1B/OF, Los Angeles Angels - 84% rostered

Given Walsh had an ADP of ~217, he's arguably been a fantasy MVP in terms of outproducing his ADP considering the numbers he's put up. A .265/.330/.500 line with 24 homers, 54 runs, 76 RBI and two steals from 114 games and they'd likely be so much better if Mike Trout (calf) and Anthony Rendon (hip) had been healthy for most of the season.

There are only 16 players who have produced those total numbers and even if we remove the two stolen bases (as being a nominal amount), there are only 22 players who can match or better Walsh's fantasy line. The concern has come from Walsh being somewhat lackluster since returning from an intercostal strain on August 11. He has now hit two homers in his last four games (including one last night) as he appears to be getting back to health. His August line is .256/.386/.397 with two homers, seven runs and nine RBI (17 games).

As we mentioned earlier, the Angels offense has been dreadful in August, with their 76 wRC+ ranking 29th in MLB. Given how productive Walsh had been pre-injury, there was a concern he still had a lingering issue. But homering twice in his last four games should put those concerns to bed and he's still got a good chance of reaching 30 homers and 90 RBI this season. I'm keeping Walsh on my rosters in all leagues.

Mike Yastrzemski - OF, San Francisco Giants - 71% rostered

Unlike Walsh, Yastrzemski has been a letdown compared to his ADP. Taken around 136th in drafts, he's failed to reach the expectations he'd set from his prior two seasons. Coming into this season, Yastrzemski played 161 MLB games and had a .281/.357/.535 line with 31 homers, 103 runs and 90 RBI. This year, he's hitting just .225/.309/.465 with 21 homers, 64 runs, 52 RBI and three stolen bases (110 games).

The Giants have the best record in baseball and rank ninth in runs scored, which has helped Yastrzemski tally a decent number of runs and RBI despite those struggles. Only 20 outfielders have 20+ homers, 60+ runs and 50+ RBI so while he lacks many steals (which he wasn't drafted for anyway), it's just his batting average that has been a problem in fantasy. Yastrzemski has hit the IL twice this year, first with an oblique injury in April and then a thumb injury in June. But on both occasions, he spent the minimum time on the IL.

I do wonder if the issues are lingering as both of them are the sort of thing someone can play through but be hampered with. After homering last night, Yastrzemski now has three home runs in his last eight games and two this week so it doesn't appear to be harming his power. Even hitting just .216/.256/.419 this month, he's homered four times, scored 13 runs, has nine RBI and one steal. I'd only consider dropping Yastrzemski in the shallowest of leagues as the Giants offense shows no signs of slowing down.

Andrew McCutchen - OF, Philadelphia Phillies - 59% rostered

McCutchen is having a similar type of year to Yastrzemski. He had an ADP of ~199 so was taken later than Yastrzemski but has a similar line on the year; .220/.332/.429. McCutchen also has similar counting stats with 21 homers, 58 runs, 60 RBI and six steals. I mentioned how Yastrzemski is in a small group of outfielders with matching or better numbers across the board and McCutchen is in even more exclusive company.

There are only 20 hitters who can match his full fantasy line, only ten of whom are outfielders. If we take each category individually, among outfielders McCutchen ranks tied-27th in homers, tied-44th in runs, 31st in RBI and tied-60th in steals. All of that means he's very much a viable option in fantasy. The .220 batting average is the obvious negative so in OBP leagues, McCutchen has greater value.

As the theme of the article seems to be, McCutchen is having a putrid August following his return from injury. He hit the IL with left knee inflammation to start the month and since returning on August 11, he's hit just .122/.173/.204. Last night was only the second time this week that McCutchen has started a game (and he went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts) which is a concern and the Phillies could find themselves out of playoff contention soon.

If there is any lingering issue that is stopping McCutchen from playing every day, he could find himself shut down at some point in September. His recent form doesn't warrant starting him in fantasy so benching him is perfectly fine right now. I'll be monitoring his playing time next week and if he's again sitting more than he starts, I'll be fine dropping him in almost any league.

Mike Moustakas - 1B/2B/3B, Cincinnati Reds - 45% rostered

It's been a bit of a disastrous season for Moustakas so far. After hitting the IL in mid-April, his return lasted less than a month before a heel injury sidelined him for 11 weeks. Moustakas came off the IL on August 6 and has been ineffective since his return, hitting just .173/.259/.385 with two homers, six runs and six RBI.

Both of those homers have come in the last seven days, in which time he's gone 5-for-16 so there's a very distinct possibility that he's just getting back up to speed after missing so much time. Considering he started the season going .289/.404/.553 with two homers in the first 12 games of the season before being injured, it would make sense that his struggles have been down to injuries and being out for so long.

Following his return from the first IL stint, Moustakas hit .204/.281/.347 with two homers in 16 games before heading back to the IL. Then he hit .111/.238/.194 in the first two weeks after his lengthy second IL stint. Breaking down all of Moustakas' numbers shows us that he's performed when he's healthy and has game time under his belt.

Moustakas was removed from Saturday's game early with hip tightness, another injury to add to his ledger in 2021. He's currently deemed day-to-day but it's something to again monitor. His struggles this year have come in the first couple of weeks after returning from injuries so I'm prepared to keep Moustakas on my roster and see if the last few days are the beginning of him returning to health and form. Assuming this issue isn't significant of course.

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