Statcast Hitter Leaderboard - Second-Half Exit Velocity

August 17, 2021

Statcast hitter leaderboard for exit velocity entering Week 22 of the 2021 fantasy baseball season. Pierre Camus reviews second-half EV for key batters of interest.

We're a month removed from the All-Star break so it's time to narrow our focus on second-half stats. In other words, it's time to look the players on your roster in the eye and ask, "What have you done for me lately?" They won't respond, but it's a good mental exercise for you to practice.

Exit velocity is a good indicator of quality contact, but not all EV is created equally. As is customary in this column, I will focus on players who demand further exploration, avoiding obvious star players or those who are irrelevant for fantasy purposes.

All Statcast data is current as of August 16, 2021 and data/graphs are taken from BaseballSavant.mlb.com

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Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins

95.9 AVG EV since 7/14/21

If there's one thing Sano has always been able to do consistently, it's strikeout. Kidding (not really), but he's always been a masher when he does make contact and this season is no exception. The first half wasn't kind to him, or anybody in Minnesota for that matter, but he's showing signs of life since the break. He's gone deep just four times in the past month, but he's batting a robust (for him) .261 with a .489 SLG in the second half. He does have nine doubles in his last 92 at-bats which is more than the eight he had in the entire first half of the season in 230 AB.

Whether you liked the old Sano or the new, improved one is a matter of preference. Those willing to punt average and sell out for power down the stretch won't want Sano 2.0, but those who want to put him in the lineup without the AVG sink should take note.

Brett Phillips, Tampa Bay Rays

95.2 AVG EV since 7/14/21

Fantasy managers may have come across Phillips' name when scrounging for steals on the waiver wire. He's swiped 12 bases on the year, but it comes with a .211 average and modest power. Casual baseball fans may know Phillips from one of those Not Top 10 highlight segments.

What fantasy managers reading this should know is that Phillips has a total of three homers and 10 RBI in his last four games started and is among the second-half leaders in exit velocity. The problem is that he's only totaled 40 at-bats in the second half. Out of the Rays' 13 games played in August, only three have seen Phillips appear from start to finish. He's a typical Rays position player in one sense and mostly a defensive specialist who's flashed some power as of late. He can be a nice DFS value play but isn't reliable enough to add in season-long leagues outside of AL-only formats.

Lewis Brinson, Miami Marlins

92.8 AVG EV since 7/14/21

Pardon the enthusiasm, but I've been predicting the Brinson breakout for two seasons and it only took until his fifth Major League season to get there. He just broke the 900-AB mark as a pro, so it's really the equivalent of two full seasons but age 27 is considered a late-age breakout, especially for a former top prospect.

Brinson has been absolutely smoking the ball, slashing .338/.395/.649 with five HR and 20 RBI in the second half. That's backed by a .724 xSLG post-ASB. His walk rate will never be great, but it's at least up to 7.4% in that span with an acceptable 24.7% K%. His recent 31.3% HR/FB% isn't going to transfer to next season, but it could carry on at least another few weeks if he remains locked in. Brinson isn't much of a fly ball hitter anyway, so as long as he keeps making hard contact, he shouldn't see a huge plummet in his statline.

Bobby Dalbec, Boston Red Sox

92.5 AVG EV since 7/14/21

Meet the new Sano. So far, Dalbec has shown a propensity for two outcomes – whiff or barrel. His 36.4% K-rate would tie Javier Baez as worst in the bigs if he were qualified, but his 16.9% Barrel rate is in the 95th percentile and his average exit velocity is 82nd percentile. After a miserable July where it appeared he might lose playing time if the Sox made a move before the trade deadline, he has sprung back to life in August. He has an .807 xSLG since the break, creating a boom in actual slugging.

The best sign is that his batting average is .269 since the break although the strikeouts haven't gone down at all. It will continue to be power or nothing for Dalbec, so proceed accordingly when choosing to put him in your lineup.

Anthony Santander, Baltimore Orioles

94.2 AVG EV since 7/14/21

Is this the Santander we've been waiting for? He went deep four times in a three-game span last week, but has fallen silent since then with four straight 0-fers. He's been great overall since the break, batting .318 in his past 66 at-bats. The O's didn't trade Trey Mancini and Cedric Mullins is still scorching hot at the top of the lineup, so there should be enough RBI opportunities for Santander in the cleanup spot. He stands as one of the biggest underachievers in terms of expected stats with a .277 xBA compared to .248 BA. His exit velocity keeps climbing as the season progresses, placing top-25 among all hitters in the second half. Keep an eye on him or make a speculative add to see if he can keep it rolling.

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