Points League Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 16

July 11, 2021

Nicklaus Gaut's H2H points league waiver wire pickups for Week 15 of the 2021 fantasy baseball season, identifying free agents to add and pitchers to stream.

We'll be doing this roundup of points leagues every week here at RotoBaller, with waiver wire targets and streaming pitchers being evaluated in terms of the different scoring systems of ESPN, Yahoo!, CBS, and Fantrax.

Player values can vary wildly from platform to platform, so we'll make sure to highlight where players are the best and worst fits. We know points league players get neglected and we're here to help.

These waiver-wire adds are for the week of July 12 - July 18, looking at players below 50% rostered for ESPN and Yahoo! Stats and rankings are calculated using games through Saturday, July 3.

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Know Your System

If you've read me even a little, you likely know what I'm going to say...You must account for, as precisely as possible, how a player performs under your particular scoring system. Don't be fooled into believing you can just make rough adjustments in your head, bumping up guys with high on-base percentages and low strikeout rates. Every point, in every category, counts.

For example, ESPN and Fantrax are virtually identical in their scoring for hitters and roster size. The only difference is that stolen bases are worth one more point on Fantrax and ESPN subtracts one point per strikeout. That's the difference between Ronald Acuna Jr. being a top-five hitter versus top-20.

If your league uses standard settings, then great! Turn to page 94 and you can skip ahead to the leaderboards. If you play with custom settings, it'll still be fine. Go back to page 43 and look below at the scoring systems of the four major platforms. I bet there's a chance that you'll find that your league's scoring is very similar to one of the four (well, not Yahoo!'s), even if it's not the platform you actually play on.

For example, my home league started on a now-defunct platform before moving first to ESPN and is now at Fantrax. But our scoring is basically ESPN standard only with two points for stolen bases and a handful of other minor adjustments.

If you look above, you'll likely find a suitable mirror to your own system. While every point counts, as long as they aren't seismic changes you can get away with some "close enough" calls. IE. If everything is the same except for HBP (or something similar), you're probably fine.

Waiver Wire Leaderboards

In addition to our overall waiver wire leaderboards, we're deep enough into the season that we'll also start doing a 14-day leaderboard (21 days for pitchers), as well, giving us a window into recent production. The charts are updated prior to Saturday's games, on stats and ownerships. All leaderboards, overall and 14-day, are sorted according to the player's APR*, and clicking on a chart will open a new page with a magnified version.

*APR = Average Platform Ranking - the average platform ranking between ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, and Fantrax (standard point settings)

The Hansels

Let the recency bias wash over you because these players are just so hot, right now. So, just for fun, let's start making a chart of the players in the top-100 of APR over the last two weeks before diving into the position-by-position analysis.

First Base

Must Add

• Joey Votto, CIN - Ok, I know what you're doing, refusing to roster Joey Votto even though he has a 21 APR over the last two weeks and has a 139 APR for the season even while missing a month of action. But I'm not going to do, what everybody thinks I'm going to do, and freak out. No, I'm just going to sit here quietly. Ha-HA!
• Garrett Cooper, MIA - Cooper is moving on up from the can-adds after continuing to rake since returning from the IL on June 25. In his 44 PA since returning, Cooper is slashing .471/.591/.882, with a .600 wOBA and 289 wRC+. In those 13 games, Cooper has collected at least one hit in every game he's started, only failing to get a knock in the games where he was a pinch-hitter. Forget for a second that he's a Marlin because Cooper needs to be rostered, toot-sweet. That's right...Toot-sweet. What, do you want me to read back that slash line again?
• Bobby Bradley, CLE - Bradley was cooling down, going just 3-for-28 to start July, with zero home runs and a 42.9% K% but has gotten going again, going deep in his past two games.

Can Add

• C.J. Cron, COL
• Christian Walker, ARI
• Pavin Smith, SEA
• Gavin Sheets, CHW - The rookie keeps hitting, with Sheets posting a 64 APR over the first 40 PA of his career. He's slashing .250/.349/.583 following an 0-for-3 as I write this on Saturday afternoon but a high OBP and low K% tends to play pretty well under most point formats.

Desperate Adds

• Miguel Sano, MIN - Nobody whiffs quite like Miguel, with Sano running a 36.6% K% over 254 PA.
• Bobby Dalbec, BOS - Ok, maybe Bobby whiffs quite like Miguel, with Dalbec running a 36.3% K% over 251 PA.
• Miguel Cabrera, DET
• Ji-Man Choi, TB

Notable IL

• Brandon Belt, SF
• Daniel Vogelbach, MIL
• Colin Moran, PIT
• Danny  Santana, BOS
• Mitch Moreland, SD

Second Base

Must Adds

• Kike Hernandez, BOS - Hernandez has gone from heating up, to on fire, to now being fully engulfed with flames. The Red Sox leadoff hitter has a 9 APR over the last two weeks and is slashing .326/.446/.717 over his past 12 games, collecting at least one hit in every game but one, hitting five home runs, and posting a .483 wOBA.
• Cesar Hernandez, CLE - Hernandez just keeps on doing what he's been doing for a while, putting up a 60 APR over the last two weeks, and a 69 APR for the season.
• Ty France, SEA - Since returning from the IL on May 24, France is slashing .293/.358/.459 over 176 PA, with a .353 wOBA and 128 wRC+. Good players on bad teams tend to get overlooked in points. Don't be an overlooker.
• Jace Peterson, MIL - The Jace Peterson renaissance somehow persists, with Peterson continuing to rake in the face of yet another Kolten Wong IL stint. He has a 5 APR (yes, five) over the last two weeks, slashing .381/.500/.667 with a .486 wOBA over 54 PA, collecting 2 HR, 12 R, and 12 RBI. Considering that Peterson's slash line for his career is .227/.317/.331 over 534 games, don't expect this ride to last long. But you might as well ride it while you can.

Can Adds

• Wilmer Flores, SF
• Brendan Rodgers, COL
• Starlin Castro, WSH
• Luis Arraez, MIN

Desperate Adds

• Josh Harrison, WSH
• Donovan Solano, SF
• Dylan Moore, SEA

Notable IL

• Kolten Wong, MIL
• Nick Madrigal, CHW
• Tommy La Stella, SF
• David Bote, CHC
• Aledmys Diaz, HOU
• Mike Brosseau, TB
• Chad Pinder, OAK

Third Base

Must Adds

• Who from above would you make a must-add?

Can Adds

• Jeimer Candelario, DET - Compared to everyone else on the chart above, Candelario has basically been Ohtani. Ok, not really but he does have a 78 APR over the last two weeks, which is about twice as good as the other options.

Desperate Adds

• Yandy Diaz, TB
• Abraham Toro, HOU
• Asdrubal Cabrera, ARI 
• Hunter Dozier, KC
• Patrick Wisdom, CHC 

Notable IL 

• Evan Longoria, SF 
• Maikel Franco, BAL
• Travis Shaw, MIL
• Brian Anderson, MIA
• Matt Duffy, TB
• Jake Lamb, CHW
• J.D. Davis, NYM

Shortstop

Must Adds

• J.P. Crawford, SEA - Same thing goes for Crawford as it did for his teammate Ty France from above; don't ignore good points players just because they're on a bad team.  Perhaps suffering from a bit of a freedom hangover, Crawford has struggled this past week, going 1-for-17 in his past four games but continues to be an excellent compiler from his leadoff spot in Seattle, posting a 107 APR over the last two weeks.
• Luis Urias, MIL - So, I guess Urias is officially a power hitter now? Not exactly but he certainly has shown more pop than in the past and has hit four home runs since June  30. Since the start of June, Urias has a .352 wOBA and has now batted leadoff for the Brewers for his last 12 games.

Can Adds

• Jose Iglesias, LAA - Iglesias has been on a heater, as of late, slashing .432/.488/.676 over his last 10 games, with a .495 wOBA and 220. That hotness won't last but he's probably been better than you think in 2021, slashing .280/.313/.404 over 288 PA, with a minuscule 15.6% K% making him that much more valuable in leagues with a strikeout penalty.
• Elvis Andrus, OAK - He's not exactly back in the building but Elvis has really been strumming it lately. He has a 53 APR over the last two weeks but Andrus has been hotter for longer than that. Since June 1, he's slashing .285/.329/.423 over 140 PA, with 2 HR, 19 R, 14 RBI, and 5 SB. No, it's not 2017.
• Paul DeJong, STL - Is DeJong finally starting to wake up since returning from the IL on June 11 to flop a big dead fish on the fantasy table, slashing .095/.174/.167 over 46 PA. But over the last two weeks, he has a 72 APR, slashing .286/.419/.600, with a .434 wOBA and 178 wRC+. That's not exactly nuclear but when DeJong gets hots, the dude can be the sun for a few weeks at a time. Be on the watch.
• Didi Gregorius, PHI

Desperate Adds

• Miguel Rojas, MIA - Rojas was in the middle of a terrific season prior to dislocating his finger in late May, starting the season by slashing .275/.354/.433 over 192 PA, with a .345 wOBA and 122 wRC+. However, Rojas just hasn't been the same since returning on June 18, slashing .194/.227/.264 over 75 PA, with a .218 wOBA and 39 wRC+. Injuries are a hell of a (terrible) drug.
• Nick Ahmed, ARI
• Niko Goodrum, DET

Notable IL

• Freddy Galvis, BAL
• Erik Gonzalez, PIT

Outfielders

Must Adds

• Brandon Nimmo, NYM - Please, don't make Nimmo the new Votto. Please? Ignore his APR because he only returned from injury on July 3. Since returning, he's slashed .385/.429/.500 over 28 PA, with a .405 wOBA and 161 wRC+. Brandon Nimmo is points gold, please pick him up. Post haste!
• Robbie Grossman, DET - If I knew how to write songs, and/or play music, my first single would definately be "Stop ignoring good point profiles on bad teams". It would obviously do terrible and I would end up living in a van down by the river but the point still stands! Grossman may only have a .228 AVG but he gives you a little bit of everything, with 12 HR, 44 R, 42 RBI, and 10 SB. Oh, and he has a 32 APR over the last two weeks and a 45 APR for the season.
• Hunter Renfroe, BOS

Can Adds

• Avisail Garcia, MIL - I just wish someone could definitively answer the question of, "Is Avisail Garcia actually good?".
• Max Kepler, MIN - Guten tag, Herr Kepler. It's nice to see you! Germany's favorite (baseball) son has warmed up lately, slashing .375/.423/.875 over his first seven games in July, with three home runs and a .533 wOBA.
• Akil Baddoo, DET
• Andrew Vaughn, CHW
• Austin Hays, BAL
• Trevor Larnach, MIN
• Jake Fraley, SEA
• Anthony Santander, BAL
• AJ Pollock, LAD 
• Joc Pederson, CHC
• Alexander Kirilloff, MIN

Desperate Adds

• Ben Gamel, PIT - Good god! Is that Ben Gamel's music? Actually, no, it's not because Ben Gamel doesn't actually have music. You know...Because he's Ben Gamel? But when you start July off by ridiculously slashing .407/.484/.926 over 31 PA, with four home runs and a .575 wOBA, you have to get a little love, right?
• David Peralta, ARI
• Michael A. Taylor, KC
• LaMonte Wade Jr., SF
• Jorge Soler, KC
• Harrison Bader, STL
• Phil Gosselin, LAA
• Jackie Bradley Jr., MIL

Notable IL

• Justin Upton, LAA
• Kyle Lewis, SEA
• Manuel Margot, TB
• Lorenzo Cain, MIL
• Clint Frazier, NYY
• Nick Senzel, CIN
• Odubel Herrera, PHI
• Aaron Hicks, NYY
• Kole Calhoun, ARI
• Corey Dickerson, TOR
• Gregory Polanco, PIT
• Willie Calhoun, TEX
• Mike Tauchman, SF
• Rob Refsnyder, MIN
• Daz Cameron, DET
• Josh Naylor, CLE
• Jordan Luplow, CLE

Catchers

Must Adds

• Surely, you jest.

Can Adds

• Eric Haase, DET - Haase has been on absolute fire over the last two weeks, slashing .297/.316/.730 over 38 PA, with five home runs and 13 RBI. Unfortunately, he still doesn't walk and still can't hit righties. Basically, he's still Eric Haase.
• Mike Zunino, TB
• Tyler Stephenson, CIN - Considering he's in the weak part of a catcher platoon, Stephenson is only a must-add in Reds-only leagues.
• Jacob Stallings, PIT

Desperate Adds

• All catcher adds are desperate adds.

Notable IL

• Carson Kelly, ARI
• Mitch Garver, MIN
• Travis d'Arnaud, ATL
• Austin Nola, SD
• Alejandro Kirk, TOR

Starting Pitchers

The All-Star break makes predicting streams the week before damn near impossible, as pitching schedules for Thursday-Sunday are unknown. Plus, many rotations will be "reset" with the number ones and twos, which most streaming targets simply aren't. So, with fewer than normal options and an unknown schedule, in-depth matchup reviews are out this week, as they'd mostly be an exercise in futility.

So, let's instead check in on the last month of performance and see who's hot, who's not, who's shooting the moon, and who should be shot into the sun.

* All platform ranking are calculated for the last 30 days (June 11 - July 10)

The Top-50 Hotness

• Joe Ross, WSH (9 APR) - It's a shame that Ross had to hit the IL with elbow inflammation, as he's been a roll of late. Over the last month and five starts, Ross has ran a 2.73 ERA (2.87 FIP, 2.95 xFIP, 2.94 SIERA) and 0.97 WHIP over 33 IP.
• Chris Flexen, SEA (9 APR) - After spending 2020 in the KBO, Flexen continues to roll on the strength of his nasty curveball/changeup combo. Batters have only managed a .197 wOBA (.235 xwOBA) against the changeup and a .239 wOBA (.245 xwOBA) against the hook. Since allowing 8 ER to the Padres on May 27, Flexen has a 2.26 ERA over eight starts and 51.2 IP.
• Drew Smyly, ATL (12 APR) - In his first eight starts, culminating in a 7 ER blowup versus the Red Sox on May 26, Smyly had a 5.95 ERA over 42.1 IP. In his seven starts since, he has a 2.75 ERA over 36 IP, going 5-0, in the process.
• Logan Gilbert, SEA (16 APR) - The heralded rookie started off his season with a plunk, allowing 7 ER in 6.2 IP over his first two starts. In his eight starts since, Gilbert has a 2.57 ERA, with a 9.9 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9.
• Kwang-Hyun Kim, STL (23 APR) - Kim has been spectacular of late, running a 1.95 ERA over the last 30 days but the evaluators (3.45 FIP, 4.74 xFIP, 4.96 SIERA) don't see him keeping it up. Lucky, or not, however, you can't ignore someone that is currently on a 13 IP scoreless streak and has allowed one run or fewer in five of his last six starts.
• Merrill Kelly, ARI (27 APR)
• Tarik Skubal, DET (32 APR)
• Zach Thompson, MIA (35 APR)
• Patrick Sandoval, LAA (42 APR)
• Ross Stripling, TOR (46 APR)
• Ryan Yarbrough, TB (46 APR)

And The Notness

• Michael Pineda, MIN (180 APR) - The APR is deceiving, as he's only pitched twice in the past 30 days but make no mistake; Pineda is totally washed. Do your part to correct his ~40% roster rate.
• Mike Minor, KC (158 APR) - Minor has been an unmitigated disaster over (at least) the last 30 days. In six starts and 32.1 IP, Minor has an 8.35 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. I suppose there is hope to be found in his much less awful 4.84 FIP but it is very, very little.
• Domingo German, NYY (153 APR) - The BABIP gods are killing German over the last month (.373 BABIP) but an 8.35 ERA can't all be waved away by "bad luck". What's really killing German is his continued home run problem. He's allowed seven home runs in his four starts in the past 30 days (1.96 HR/9) but wasn't much better prior, allowing 12 HR in 11 starts (1.78 HR/9).
• Marco Gonzales, SEA (136 APR) - Whether looking at the past month, or the whole season, Gonzales has been a disaster after posting a career-low 3.10 ERA in 2020. In 11 starts and 56.2 IP, he has a 5.88 ERA (6.10 FIP), with a 5.03 xFIP, and 4.83 SIERA.
• Triston McKenzie, CLE (129 APR) - McKenzie dominated in his return to Cleveland's rotation on July 9, striking out nine Royals over seven shutout innings. But while his strikeout stuff shouldn't be questioned, lets not get carried away by him roughing up a terrible Royals offense. In fact, even with his 5.47 ERA, McKenzie has really benefited from a lot of bad matchups, including a total of three starts against the Royals (0.57 ERA),  as well as one against Detroit (5 IP, 0 ER). In his other eight starts, McKenzie has a 9.10 ERA in 29 IP.
• Adbert Alzolay, CHC (142 APR)
• Stephen Matz, TOR (123 APR)
• Ryan Weathers, SD (128 APR)
• JT Brubaker, PIT (114 APR)

Notable IL

• Austin Gomber, COL
• Joe Ross, WSH
• Spencer Turnbull, DET
• Matthew Boyd, DET
• Huascar Ynoa, ATL
• Elieser Hernandez, MIA
• Carlos Martinez, STL
• Madison Bumgarner, ARI
• Tucker Davidson, ATL
• Justin Dunn, SEA

Relief Pitchers

Keep in mind that with relievers, points scored can be deceiving. Most scoring systems make it pretty difficult for even the best non-closers to score elite points, making them very reliant on unpredictable wins. You simply need the save points to really do damage. AKA, when you see totally random names hit the leaderboard (particularly the 14-Day one), it's probably because they happened to get a few wins and/or a lot of usage. If a reliever doesn't have an established role, tread carefully.

One note about ownership; because ESPN uses nine open pitching slots, as opposed to dedicated slots for RP/SP, relievers tend to be lighter owned than on other sites.

Notable IL

• Lucas Sims, CIN
• Tejay Antone, CIN
• Michael Fulmer, DET
• Drew Pomeranz, SD
• Victor Gonzalez, LAD
• Aaron Bummer, CHW
• Zack Britton, NYY
• Ryan Thompson, TB
• Jimmy Nelson, LAD

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