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Jamie Steed recommends betting picks for the MLB slate on 6/18/2021. He breaks down each team's situation and suggests the top picks on money lines, totals, run lines, and more!
Last Friday and Saturday saw us go 4-for-7 to have a profitable start to the weekend. One more Tarik Skubal strikeout and two more from Wade Miley (who only fanned three in seven innings) would've made it a big couple of days. But despite Miley not hitting the over, the Angels comeback win and the Indians/Mariners game hitting the under saw us bag profit on Saturday.
Before we begin, I want to remind you that gambling should be fun. When the fun stops, stop. Never bet more than you're willing to lose. I'm no professional gambler, just a guy who loves the game and likes a bet. But I'll still be giving 100% in my research to make us some money. Everything I put here, I'll be backing myself so we're in this together. I'll also be keeping track of only my picks so I don't drag down the numbers from my colleagues.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell (@BellRoto) will be handling things over in our premium offering. Steve Janik (@stevejanik6) and Brua Tagovailoaić (@LucidMediaDFS) will be giving out the free picks during the week throughout the season, with some help from yours truly. And Kipp Heisterman (@kipppsta) brings you the Monkey Knife Fight picks. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 1-2 (-0.57 U)
- O/U Record: 3-5 (-2.40 U)
- Runline Record: 1-4 (-1.42 U)
- 1st 5 Innings Record: 3-7 (-2.09 U)
- Prop Record: 12-6 (+5.67 U)
- 2021 Total Record: 18-22 (-0.81 U)
Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: PHI +110, SFG -120
PHI: Vince Velasquez | SFG: Johnny Cueto
Since the start of June, the Phillies and Giants offenses both rank inside the top-7 of wRC+, with the Giants ranking fourth (127) and the Phillies ranking seventh (113). A large part of that for the Giants has come from their four-game sweep of the Diamondbacks this week, in which they scored 37 runs. That came off the back of a split-four game series with the Nationals in which they managed to score just three runs and were shut out twice (two games were seven-inning doubleheaders).
The Phillies offense has woken up this month and in their 12 games in June, they've scored 67 runs. They started the month putting up 17 runs against the Reds but have also scored 12 against the Nationals and put up 15 in their two-game series against the Yankees. They had a day off yesterday which makes a difference for travel normally but finished a three-game series at the Dodgers on Wednesday so haven't had to fly across the country and should be fresh for this contest.
Neither starting pitcher has been particularly great this year, with Cueto sporting a 4.00 ERA and Velasquez a 4.25 ERA. Velasquez had gotten off to a great start to the season but he's allowed 11 earned runs in 12.0 IP over his last three starts. Cueto's last four starts include a one-run outing over seven innings against the Angels but in the other three outings, he allowed 11 earned runs over 14.2 IP. Both starters have an expected ERA (xERA) of 4.80 so they're more likely to see their ERA go up rather than drop below four.
Given the offenses and pitching, I'm looking at the over in runs. Both bullpens have been excellent in June. Giants relievers have a 1.57 ERA this month (2nd best) and the Phillies have a 2.95 ERA (6th best). That's why I'm leaning to the first five innings over line specifically, especially given the difference in the respective lines.
The weather also looks like it'll benefit the hitters with 10-12 MPH winds blowing out to left-center field
Pick: 1st 5 innings over/under - Over 4 runs (-120) 1 Unit
New York Mets at Washington Nationals
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: NYM -101, WAS -109
NYM: Joey Lucchesi | WAS: Erick Fedde
An NL East battle sees the first-place Mets visit the fourth-place Nationals. The Nationals come into this game on a four-game win streak (6-4 in last 10 games) while the Mets come into the weekend on the back of a loss to the Cubs but have a 7-3 record over their last 10 games.
Lucchesi will be making his eighth start of the year (three relief appearances) and has an uninspiring 5.18 ERA. After allowing four earned runs in 1.2 IP of relief on May 15th, Lucchesi has made four starts and allowed just three earned runs in 17.1 IP (two of which were solo home runs). His underlying numbers have been good also, with a 3.67 xERA, 3.95 xFIP and 3.64 SIERA.
Fedde has been having a solid season with a 3.86 ERA backed up but his 4.08 xERA, 4.01 xFIP and 4.29 SIERA. Since his season debut in which he allowed five earned runs over 1.2 IP, Fedde has a 2.95 ERA (eight starts). In his last two starts, he hasn't allowed a run (12.0 IP) and given up just seven hits and two walks. They were against the Giants and Diamondbacks so neither was a gimmie in terms of opposition.
Both team's bullpens have been good this season with the Mets sporting a 3.69 ERA (8th best) and the Nationals not far behind with a 3.85 ERA (13th best) so in a tight game, one run could make all the difference and both teams will be confident of sealing a narrow win if they lead late in the game.
Although the Mets offense has improved in recent weeks following a dreadful start and glut of injuries, they're still not the force people expected them to be preseason. Since May 01st, they rank 20th in SLG (.389), 21st in wOBA (.306) and 15th in wRC+ (99). The Nationals offense ranks very similarly to the Mets in that timeframe, 19th in SLG (.390), 18th in wOBA (.309) and 20th in wRC+ (94).
This looks like it'll be a close game and I'd probably shade it to the Nationals but it's too close to call. The over/under looks more tempting with two starting pitchers in good form, two solid bullpens and below-average offenses.
Pick: Over/Under - Under 9 (-110) 1 Unit
Prop Bets
Oakland Athletics @ New York Yankees
Jameson Taillon heads to the mound looking to bounce back after failing to get out of the first inning against the Phillies last weekend. It should come as no surprise that the Yankees have been careful with Taillon's usage given his injury history and he's only completed six innings once all season. Taillon's four outings before last weekend totaled just 19.2 innings and he managed just 15 strikeouts in those games (17.5% K%).
The Athletics have been good against RHP since May 01st. They rank ninth in K% (22.2%) since then and fifth in BB% (10.3%). Their 115 wRC+ is sixth-best, .193 ISO is fourth-best and .5.38 SLG is fifth-best. It's difficult to see Taillon getting through more than five innings and with the Athletics' low strikeout rate against righties, Taillon might struggle to get five strikeouts. That's something he's only managed once in his last five starts.
Pick: Taillon under 4.5 Ks (-102) 1 Unit
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