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Rick Lucks takes a deep look into the value of Philadelphia Phillies infielder Alec Bohm in fantasy baseball redraft leagues for 2021. What should we expect moving forward?
A lot of huge names are underperforming in 2021, including DJ LeMahieu, Mookie Betts, Francisco Lindor, Freddie Freeman, and Trevor Story. Alec Bohm isn't the same type of household name those guys are, so the fact that he's only slashing .224/.266/.309 on the season with four homers and three steals after a breakout debut in 2020 has kind of slid under the radar. Still, it's a huge disappointment in fantasy considering that he was coming off a .338/.400/.481 season.
There's another big difference between Bohm and other struggling superstars: virtually none of his peripherals have changed. If you were expecting him to maintain his 2020 BABIP of .410, the blame falls on you. However, his profile supports an elevated BABIP, and his current mark of .289 is bound for positive regression.
Notably, one of the strongest points in Bohm's favor is his MiLB success, which this author already covered in detail here. He hasn't logged any minor league PAs since that piece was written, so there's no point rehashing all of the details. With that out of the way, let's try and ascertain what we should expect from Bohm moving forward.
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Contact Quality
Considering that Bohm's surface stats have fallen off substantially from his 2020 performance, you may be surprised to learn that his contact quality metrics have actually improved slightly this season. Last season, Bohm's average airborne exit velocity was 93.6 mph with an average of 87.7 mph on ground balls and a max exit velocity of 109.6 mph. This season, he has a 94.1 mph average airborne EV, 91.1 mph on grounders, and 111.6 mph max. That's up across the board.
It's not all good news, as Bohm's rate of Brls/BBE has fallen from 10.3% last season to 8% this year. His 2021 rate is still above the league average though, and Bohm isn't a pure power guy who lives and dies with his barrel rate. He's more of a pure hitter who pops the occasional homer while adding most of his fantasy value with his average or OBP.
It all adds up to a startling disconnect between Bohm's actual numbers and his expected statistics on Baseball Savant. His xBA of .269 is 45 points above his actual average of .224. That's the 25th largest differential among qualified hitters, tied with Michael Conforto of the Mets. He should probably be projected for something higher moving forward as well. The differential between his slugging percentage and xSLG is even larger at 115 points (.424 vs. .309), tied for 14th largest with Marcell Ozuna.
The shift is not the root cause of the problem because Bohm is shift-proof. His 38.8 Pull% on ground balls this year is better than his 49.3% mark a year ago, so moving infielders around doesn't make theoretical sense. The numbers don't support it either, as Bohm is hitting a robust .419 in 45 PAs against the shift. The league as a whole is underperforming in xStats due to the changes to the ball, but Bohm still appears to be an outlier.
Plate Discipline
Contact quality is one thing, but Bohm's plate discipline has also trended in the wrong direction this year. His K% has increased from 20% in 2020 to 26.6% this season, while his BB% has fallen from 8.9% to 5.8%. It seems like a dramatic shift, but his underlying skills haven't changed.
His SwStr% is only marginally higher this year, clocking in at 11.4% vs. 11% last year. His eye is slightly improved, as his chase rate is down to 29.3% from 30.1%. Bohm's O-Contact% is way up (57.8% last year, 67.1% this), suggesting that he may be making weak contact on pitches he doesn't really want to hit. Since this is a guy who never had a K% above 15.7 at a MiLB stop with more than 10 PAs, it seems safe to assume that his strikeouts will decline.
Baseball Savant's xStats don't regress a player's K% at all, so the .269 xBA cited above will increase if Bohm starts striking out less often. Bohm should be good for at least a .280 average over the rest of the season in this author's estimation, as his BABIP should improve by at least 20 points while his K% should be closer to 20% than 25%.
Power
Some prospect hounds identified Bohm as a big power threat, so fantasy managers may be expecting a 30 HR pace out of him. Quite frankly, Bohm would need to dramatically change his batted ball profile to come close to that. His FB% was consistently low on the farm, clocked in at just 25.4% in 2020, and has fallen further this season to 23.3%. Furthermore, both his 2020 HR/FB of 12.5% and his 2021 HR/FB of 10.5% are nothing special in a hitter's park like Citizen's Bank Park. Bohm might pick up his power pace a little, but it probably won't exceed a 20 HR pace over a full season. A 15 HR pace is likely more realistic.
Conclusion
Bohm is almost the exact same player he was last season, except that he overperformed his peripherals last season and is underachieving this year. As usual, his true talent lies in between the two extremes. The Phillies have demoted Bohm to the seventh spot in the order, a role that severely hinders his counting stats. That said, you have to believe that the soon-to-be-25-year-old could hit himself into a better spot if he starts producing.
He's only rostered in 59% of Yahoo! leagues, so roughly 40% of you can nab him off waivers for free. It may also be worth exploring a buy-low on him. A .280 average the rest of the way is a conservative estimate for his profile, and that's worth a lot in today's game. Sounds like a Champ to me!
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