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Jamie Steed recommends betting picks for the MLB slate on 6/11/2021. He breaks down each team's situation and suggests the top picks on money lines, totals, run lines, and more!
Last week was a stark reminder of how fickle baseball can be. Needing the Tigers to at least be tied with the White Sox through five innings, they entered the bottom of the fifth with the score at 1-1. Then, Spencer Turnbull was hurt and didn't manage to pitch in the fifth. The Tigers bullpen then gave up five runs in the inning to kill us off. The Cardinals and Reds did hit to over to salvage something for us on the day.
Before we begin, I want to remind you that gambling should be fun. When the fun stops, stop. Never bet more than you're willing to lose. I'm no professional gambler, just a guy who loves the game and likes a bet. But I'll still be giving 100% in my research to make us some money. Everything I put here, I'll be backing myself so we're in this together. I'll also be keeping track of only my picks so I don't drag down the numbers from my colleagues.
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 0-2 (-1.5 U)
- O/U Record: 2-5 (-3.23 U)
- Runline Record: 1-4 (-1.42 U)
- 1st 5 Innings Record: 2-6 (-1.99 U)
- Prop Record: 11-4 (+6.87 U)
- 2021 Total Record: 14-19 (-1.27 U)
Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: COL +185, CIN -225
COL: Kyle Freeland | CIN: Tyler Mahle
Freeland was having a very good Spring before injury shut him down. He finally made his season debut on May 25th and his first two starts tallied 8.0 IP in which he gave up four earned runs. Both were road games and in his last start (the first at Coors Field), he allowed five earned runs in five innings. Freeland's career road ERA is 4.00 and his home ERA is 4.44 so he fairs better out of Colorado.
Mahle has been excellent so far this year with a 3.32 ERA from 12 starts. After allowing seven runs in two innings against the Giants, Mahle's last three starts have totaled 17.1 IP and yielded just two earned runs. Mahle faced the Rockies in Colorado in mid-May and allowed just two earned runs over seven innings.
Both teams have had trouble with their bullpens as they rank 29th and 30th respectively in bullpen ERA. The Reds 5.88 ERA is the worst in MLB with the Rockies not far behind with a 5.45 ERA. Even if it's a low-scoring affair in the early going, I don't have any confidence it would remain that way with the relievers each team has (especially if the Reds have to do without Tejay Antone).
On the other side of the ball, the Reds offense has struggled against left-handed pitching (LHP) in recent weeks. Since May 01st, they rank 23rd in OPS (.675), 23rd in wOBA (.296) and 25th in wRC+ (85). In that timeframe, the Rockies offense against RHP has been one of the worst in MLB, ranking 27th in OPS (.696), 28th in wOBA (.284) and 30th in wRC+ (65). That goes a long way to explaining their 5-24 road record on the season.
There's not enough meat on the bones to back a Reds win and neither team's bullpen gives me any confidence that they can protect a lead so we'll follow the trends and go with a low-scoring game in the early stages.
Pick: Over/Under 1st 5 innings - Under 5 (-115) 1 Unit
Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: BAL +150, TBR -160
BAL: Keegan Akin | TBR: Ryan Yarbrough
What if I told you that since May 01st, no team has put up better offensive numbers against LHP than the Orioles? Well, it's true. They rank 1st in AVG (.318), OPS (.912), wOBA (.390) and wRC+ (151). The problem has been their pitching, with an ERA of 5.70 in that timeframe (worst in MLB).
Akin takes the mound tonight and he's been solid for them since moving from the bullpen to the starting rotation. His two starts so far have combined for 9.2 IP and allowed just one earned run (having faced the White Sox and Indians). He struck out four in each of those two games.
The Rays strikeout struggles against LHP have been well documented and something we've taken advantage of this year. Their 29.2% K% versus southpaws is second highest in MLB and they rank in the bottom ten among all offensive categories against LHP.
Yarbrough has faced the Orioles once this year, allowing six runs (three earned) in six innings. Prior to his complete game against the Yankees last time out, he had a 4.26 ERA and in games not against the Yankees this year, Yarbrough has a 4.81 ERA. Considerably worse than his 3.95 ERA this year. Whether he enters the game after an opener or not, he's allowed three or more earned runs in five of his twelve outings (nine outings not against the Yankees).
I do like the Orioles moneyline and runline in the first five innings but like the Reds and Rockies, their bullpen is too unreliable to back them to see the whole game through especially with Akin unlikely to go more than five or six innings. Their bullpen ERA since May 01st is 5.72 and only the aforementioned Reds and Rockies have a higher ERA in the span.
Pick: Over/Under 1st 5 innings - Over 4 (-110) 1 Unit
Prop Bets
Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
Tarik Skubal is starting to fulfill his promise. In his last four outings, he's put up a 2.14 ERA and struck out 37 batters in 21.0 IP (42.0% K%). The last time out, he faced the White Sox and struck out eleven, following on from striking out nine, eight and nine hitters in the three prior starts.
The White Sox have pretty average strikeout numbers against LHP this year. Their 24.5% K% on the year is 11th highest and 25.2% K% versus LHP since May 01st is 13th highest. That makes what Skubal did to them all the more impressive. I'm not normally too keen on backing a pitcher against the team he's facing for the second straight start but Skubal's strikeout line is too tempting given his recent outings.
Pick: Skubal over 6.5 Ks (-105) 1 Unit
Los Angeles Angels at Arizona Diamondbacks
Merrill Kelly has had a so-so year, with a 5.12 ERA. Despite his struggles, Kelly has complete five or more innings in each of his last 11 outings with the only exception on the year coming in his first start of 2021 (four innings at the Padres). In his last eight starts, Kelly has struck out five or more batters on six occasions with the only two times he failed to do so, he still got four strikeouts. Kelly has a 27.2% K% over his last four starts.
The Angels have the third-highest strikeout rate against RHP since May 01st (26.3% K%). On Wednesday, their lineup consisted of three batters with a sub-18.0% K% and four batters with a 28.0% K% or higher. I can't foresee a lineup that doesn't have at least four or five strikeout heavy hitters and Kelly goes deep enough into games even when he's struggling to hit the over.
Pick: Kelly over 4.5 Ks (-120) 1 Unit
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