NL-Only and AL-Only Waiver Wire for Week 11

June 10, 2021

Matt Wallach outlines his favorite week 11 waiver wire pickups and adds for deep leagues, and AL-only or NL-only fantasy baseball leagues for the 2021 MLB season.

Welcome back to the NL-only and AL-only pickups column. Each week, I'll look at five players who are under 15% rostered in Yahoo! leagues and who can be considered as options to add in deep-league formats, such as 15-teamers or AL or NL-only leagues.

I'll also include a recommendation for what to do with each player on your roster. And lastly, I'll take a look at some of my picks from the previous week to see how they're performing.

Without further ado, let's get into it.

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Yonathan Daza - OF, Rockies

5% rostered
Recommended move: Add for a few weeks 

Daza has been recommended here before, and not much has really changed about his profile. He contributes a good batting average (currently at .331), while providing not much else. It's a one-dimensional profile for sure, but in the season where the league batting average is below .240, a player like Daza can be a nice contributor for fantasy teams, even while not providing much else.

His strong batting average does come with a .409 BABIP though, so it maybe should be expected to regress a bit going forward. His Statcast profile is not a super-encouraging one, so it's not as if his high BABIP is justified. Daza's profile is likely to fluctuate--as a hitter who doesn't provide much in terms of extra-base ability to go along with a high groundball rate (51.4%), Daza's success will come down to BABIP. So far, it's working out, but his performance may not be super stable or consistent. He's a good option right now, but be careful to not set him and forget him in your lineup. Monitor his performance closely.

Steven Duggar - OF, Giants

4% rostered
Recommended move: Add for a few weeks

Duggar has taken over the majority of the playing time in center field for the Giants recently, and for good reason as he has been playing well with a .309/.364/.556 slash line. That does come with a whopping 36.4% strikeout rate though, which continues a trend for him as a high-strikeout hitter. It is a hard profile to make work, but for now, Duggar is doing it, which is making him fantasy relevant.

The Statcast numbers right now suggest that Duggar's power output has been legitimate, with a 14.3% barrel rate, 40.8% hard-hit rate, and a super-low groundball rate of 34%. The power output has been exciting so far, and looks it could be here to stay for the rest of the season, but the same probably can't be said about his high .309 batting average, It's been a pleasant surprise so far, but like Daza, it's on the heels of a ridiculous .467 BABIP--which is in absolutely no way sustainable. His expected batting average per Statcast is .237, which shows just how stark the difference has been. So while the batting average will surely come down, Duggar does still provide power potential that could be valuable for deep league managers going forward.

Harold Ramirez - OF, Cleveland

4% rostered
Recommended move: Add for the long haul. 

Ramirez was recommended last week and has seen his roster rate jump up a touch in that span. I think he is still being underrated though. He has a .278/.327/.464 slash line for the season, and has been playing particularly well as of late with a .344/.447/.531 slash line since May 27.

Unlike the last two recommendations in Daza and Duggar, there are a lot fewer issues in Ramirez's profile beyond the solid slash line. His Statcast metrics are excellent, the highlights of which being his 55.3% hard-hit rate and 114.5 maximum exit velocity--both rank among the very best in baseball. The expected stats all look good too, with an xBA of .335, xSLG of .537, and xwOBA of .394. Additionally, Ramirez has a low 11.5% strikeout rate, so more of those well-hit balls are going to be going in play, and should drive good results.

The one downside of his profile is the high 52.9% groundball rate, which has been a part of who he is as a hitter going back to his minor league days. He has been maximizing the damage that he does on his non-groundballs though, as he ranks towards the top of the league in terms of exit velocity on fly balls and line drives at 98.2 miles-per-hour (20th-best in the league). If he can continue to hit those balls with such authority, it shouldn't matter that much that he has a high groundball rate.

Ramirez is quickly emerging as one of Cleveland's most important hitters, and the results speak for themselves so far. He may not be this good, but he is playing well and is still rostered at a low rate. He should probably be rostered at a higher rate, but this leads to an easy buy-in opportunity for deep leaguers.

Josh Reddick - OF, Diamondbacks

4% rostered
Recommended move: Add for a few weeks

Since being called up by the D-backs, Reddick has been playing well with a .328/.350/.466 slash line in just 60 plate appearances. That's good enough for a 122 wRC+, which is definitely a  welcome sight in a barren offensive landscape, but Reddick is probably not this good.

In what is now turning into a theme of this week's recommendations, Reddick is doing this with a high BABIP--.404 to be exact. It's not likely to stick, but he is at least doing enough to be kept in the lineup right now, and if he can hit at the league-average level he has been for the last few years, he can still be a useful fantasy option. Not much looks different in his profile this season from last season, with a similar hard-hit rate and batted-ball distribution, so he can probably hit at the same level as he did last year.

It does need to be kept in mind though that while Reddick has a starting role right now, he may not have it for long, as he is a veteran on a last-place team. The team could start to filter in and favor more young players as the season goes on, which could leave Reddick on the bench. Additionally, he's not likely to be in there against every left-handed starter, as he has had issues against same-handed pitchers for most of his career. At the least though, Reddick is a warm body with a role who can provide league-average type hitting. He should be a good bench option in deep leagues, or a starter if he can keep this hot streak going for a while longer.

Tony Kemp - 2B/OF, Athletics

4% rostered
Recommended move: Add for a few weeks 

It looks like the A's have pulled yet another quality player out of nowhere as Kemp has posted a .287/.391/.457 slash line this season that has him quickly looking like one of the team's better hitters. He's been killing it in the last week in particular, with a ridiculous 269 wRC+ and a .438/.474/.938 triple slash. He's been an extra-base machine, with five of his seven hits since June 1st going for extra bases.

Now, Kemp is probably not this good. Again, the Statcast metrics don't suggest he's this type of player, as even with all of those extra-base hits, he still hasn't registered a single barrel on the year, which should raise an eyebrow. With that being said, expect some of the power output to drop in the future, but Kemp still does have a solid profile that suggests he could hit for a high batting average, which would definitely help many fantasy teams. He also has good speed, with three stolen bases on the year, so he could push double-digits there for the rest of the year. It's not the most solid to exciting profile, but Oakland seems to trust him right now, as they've hit him second in the order twice in the last week. He may not play against every left-handed starting pitcher, but he looks to have carved out a role for the foreseeable future. He has dual-eligibility as well, which also adds to his fantasy value. Kemp could be a good bench option or injury fill-in in the immediate future, but it could be worth starting him to see if he can continue his strong run of form a bit.

Reviewing Last Week's Picks

At the end of each week's post, I'll review what happened with last week's picks and offer a suggestion for them in the future.

Ji-Man Choi (1B, TB)

Last week: 8% rostered. This week: 4% rostered. 

Choi was placed on the injured list with a groin injury last weekend. This is the second time this season that Choi is going to be missing time. His overall stats are still solid, and he should be a factor when he comes off the injured list, so keep an eye on him when that happens. Right now though, there's not a timetable for his return, so he can go on your team's IL if there's a spot available or back to the wire until then.

Current recommendation: Drop/Hold on IL 

Brendan Rodgers (SS, COL)

Last week: 7% rostered. This week: 5% rostered. 

After a slow start since coming back from the injured list, Rodgers looks to be getting going at the plate. He did well in the last weak with a 149 wRC+, while driving in six runs and also landing his first Major League home run. His overall stats still look ugly with a 77 wRC+, but it seems like he's playing better now. Hold him for now.

Current recommendation: Hold. 

Trevor Larnach (OF, MIN)

Last week: 4% rostered. This week: 3% rostered. 

Larnach could have easily been recommended again this week, as he still is playing well. Last week he had a .313 batting average and a 121 wRC+, so he definitely helped teams out, even if there wasn't much power in that span. I still like the profile, even if it should come with a lot of strikeouts, but he continues to play well and should get better as he starts to see more Major League pitching.

Current recommendation: Hold. 

Guillermo Heredia (OF, ATL) 

Last week: 2% rostered. This week: 2% rostered. 

Heredia did not play well last week, going just 3-for-18, with a 27.8% strikeout rate and zero walks or extra-base hits. It looks like he is starting to cool down after a hot start as he's hitting just .227 since May 20. He should still be playing every day for the Braves going forward, but there are better options available. This is a drop.

Current recommendation: Drop. 

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