RADIO
Joe Nicely's under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the Memorial at Muirfield Village. His Horse for the Course for daily fantasy golf based on course history.
Hello PGA DFS family! I hope you all had a nice Memorial Day holiday! The Charles Schwab Challenge turned into a two-horse race Sunday with Jason Kokrak outlasting Jordan Spieth down the stretch. It was Kokrak's second win this season and just his second career victory on the PGA Tour. His triumph at Colonial would appear to vault him into strong Ryder Cup consideration.
This is certainly a very strong stretch of events for the PGA Tour and we head from one legendary course to another for this week's Memorial at Muirfield Village!
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
The Memorial Overview
What a stretch of golf we're in at the moment, as we are seeing terrific golf courses and strong fields seemingly every week. That's once again the case this week as we head to Jack Nicklaus' Muirfield Village for the Memorial.
Like the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the Memorial is considered an "elevated status" event, meaning the field showing up to Dublin, Ohio this week is by invitation only, will be smaller than we usually see in regular Tour events, and very strong. In addition to the elite competition they'll face, this field of golfers will also have to contend with a Muirfield layout that played as one of the schedule's toughest last year. Toss in some off-season changes made by Jack Nicklaus that appear to be fairly significant and things could get very difficult this week.
Reigning Memorial champion Jon Rahm will be back to defend his title - and attempt to jumpstart what's been a mediocre-by-his-standards 2021. The Spaniard will face many of the game's best players, including Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, and Bryson DeChambeau. There is lots of course history available for this event, but it's fair to wonder how the Nicklaus tweaks (reportedly pretty extensive) to the layout will impact things this year. Let's tee it up!
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: Muirfield Village Golf Club
Par 72 - 7,543 Yards, Greens: Bentgrass, Designed By: Jack Nicklaus & Desmond Muirhead
We can always count on a Nicklaus-designed course to force the players into strategic thinking and Muirfield Village doesn't disappoint. Muirfield Village actually has *GASP* penal rough both lining the fairways and around greens that will punish a players mistakes. 'The Golden Bear' built this course from the ground up in the 1970's and he continually updates it as needed. It's lengthy enough to require mid-to-long irons on some approach shots, but isn't a 'bomber's track'. Difficult, but not impossible to score on, we'll see golfers post both 66s and 76s this week. In other words, Muirfield is a very high-quality golf course. A very high-quality golf course that Jack Nicklaus almost endlessly tinkers with. That tinkering led to off-season changes that will be noticeable this year, including the addition of trees and bunkers, as well as the re-finishing of green complexes.
The emphasis this week will be on accuracy and ballstriking, with players being required to hit both tree-lined fairways and undulating greens. Water is in play on 11 holes, with bunkers also causing trouble for the players. The closing stretch is one of the toughest in golf, with 16, 17, and 18 presenting players with a challenging close to their rounds. I'll be heavily weighting Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: OTT (with an emphasis on accuracy), and bogey avoidance this week at Muirfield.
For an in-depth breakdown of this week's course, check out RotoBaller's PGA Premium Course Breakdown by Josh Bennett!
Recent Memorial Champions
- 2020: Jon Rahm (-9)
- 2019: Patrick Cantlay (-19)
- 2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-15)
- 2017: Jason Dufner (-13)
- 2016: William McGirt (-15)
The Horse
Patrick Cantlay
Notable Course History: T32 (2020), Win ('19), 4th ('18), T35 ('17)
DraftKings Price: $9,500 FanDuel Price: $11,100
Known for his exceptional consistency prior to 2020, the last 12-ish months have been anything but consistent for Patrick Cantlay. The Californian's past year has been dotted with ups and downs that includes a win at the ZOZO Championship late last year, multiple close calls at the outset of 2021, and - most recently - a stretch of four consecutive missed cuts between March and May before a ball-striking explosion led to a top-25 result at the PGA Championship. So, while in the past we might have looked to Cantlay for a measure of DFS safety, he's currently a player that can be legitimately labeled erratic.
Despite Cantlay's recent volatility, he heads to this week's Memorial with a really nice combination of great course history coupled with the form he flashed at Kiawah Island. His track record a Muirfield Village is impeccable and includes four made cuts over four career starts, a win in 2019, as well as a top-five result in 2018...and we can also toss in a T7 in last year's one-off Workday Charity Open for good measure.
The course history would be less intriguing if it weren't for that aforementioned performance at the PGA Championship a couple of weeks ago. Cantlay gained an impossible-to-ignore 7.9 strokes on Approach, as well as 9.2 strokes T2G. Those numbers, coupled with his Muirfield Village record, are enough to make him a high-priority DFS option this week.
The Ponies
Justin Thomas
Notable Course History: T18 ('20), MC, ('19), T8 ('18), T4 ('17)
DraftKings Price: $10,200 FanDuel Price: $11,700
Despite a couple of un-JT-like performances in his last two starts, this feels like a nice spot to "buy the dip" with Justin Thomas, as this is just the second time of 2021 that he's been priced below $10.5k on DraftKings.
Thomas heads to Ohio on the heels of a surprising missed cut at the PGA Championship and an underwhelming T40 at Colonial last week. However, his track record at Muirfield Village indicates that this might be a solid situation for him to get back on track. Thomas has made the cut in three of his last four Memorial starts with a top-five and a top-10 among those, as well as a runner-up finish in last year's Workday Charity Open that was held at Muirfield. Despite his underwhelming outings of the past couple of weeks, he still grades out seventh in this week's field in SG: T2G over the last 24 rounds and is one of the few players in the world that truly possesses all the tools needed to win on this tough Nicklaus layout.
Hideki Matsuyama
Notable Course History: MC ('20), 6th ('19), T13 ('18), 5th ('15), Win ('14)
DraftKings Price: $9,400 FanDuel Price: $10,900
Despite his recent major-championship breakthrough at the Masters, it feels as though Hideki Matsuyama will go a bit overlooked this week. However, his Memorial track record and recent form both indicate that we probably shouldn't sleep on the Japanese superstar this week.
'Deki's Masters momentum might have been derailed a bit by his return to Japan after winning at Augusta - and the mandated COVID quarantine that it required - but he's actually been very good in his two post-Masters starts. Matsuyama gained 3.2 strokes on Approach in a knock-the-rust-off outing at the Byron Nelson and followed up with a sneaky-good top-25 at the PGA Championship, a start in which he gained a blistering 10.3 strokes T2G and 6.4 on Approach, but in true Hideki fashion, lost 3.3 strokes with the putter. He brings that under-the-radar form to a Muirfield layout on which he won back in 2014 and has posted two top-six finishes in subsequent years.
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Tony Finau
Notable Course History: 8th ('20), MC ('19), T13 ('18), T40 ('17), T11 ('16)
DraftKings Price: $9,200 FanDuel Price: $10,800
Anytime a PGA DFS writer digs into Tony Finau it presents a tricky proposition, as the patented “but...he never wins” seems to be a given in any discussion surrounding Finau. So, I’ll try to touch on Tony this week without beating that particularly well-worn dead horse and remain focused on his pristine track record in The Memorial.
Finau has thrived on the Nicklaus-designed classic, making the cut in four of his last five trips to Muirfield Village with three top-15 finishes, including an eighth-place result in last year’s Memorial.
His result in major championships over the last three years highlights his ability to handle long, tough golf courses. Finau grades out third in this field in SG: T2G on golf courses with a length of over 7,400 yards and has all the tools needed to handle this Muirfield layout that stretches over 7,500 yards on the scorecard. He heads to Ohio in what feels like mediocre form, but a quick glance at his results of the past couple of months reminds us that he’s very quietly posted top-10s in both of the year’s first two major championships and grades out a rock-solid sixth in this week’s field in SG: T2G over the last 24 rounds.
Gary Woodland
Notable Course History: T22 ('20), T52 ('19), T23 ('18), T4 ('16)
DraftKings Price: $7,900 FanDuel Price: $9,700
It's usually not gonna be a great week for me when Gary Woodland plays well. After years of trying to catch the swings, I basically quit rostering Woodland altogether after his U.S. Open win. Maybe I'm ready to get hurt again this week, as the Jayhawk heads to Memorial with a triple-threat of positives leaning his way: price, course history, & recent form.
With a sub-$8k price tag on DraftKings, he stands out as a moderately-priced player with true top-five upside. Woodland has made the cut in his last five trips to Muirfield Village (six if we want to count a T5 in last year's Workday event) with two top-25s and a top-five in the Memorial since 2016. While his form has been overall (and typically) erratic this year, Woody has settled into a nice groove as of late, posting top-five at the Wells Fargo and solid results in both the PGA Championship & Charles Schwab Challenge. He's gained strokes T2G and on Approach in each of those last three starts. A legitimately-elite talent, he has a nice blend of both distance and ball-striking prowess that is rewarded on this Nicklaus design.
Kevin Streelman
Notable Course History: T54 ('20), 4th ('19), T44 ('18), T13 ('17), T8 ('16)
DraftKings Price: $7,500 FanDuel Price: $9,500
Few players in professional golf are as exciting and dynamic as Kevin Streelman! Ok...that first sentence was a total lie. Streels is pretty much the opposite of exciting and dynamic, but consistent and dependable are qualities that are not without merit. The vanilla veteran has managed to go on a very impressive run as of late, posting made cuts in five of his last six, with an eye-catching T8 at the PGA Championship two weeks ago. He heads to the Memorial off another solid outing - a T20 at Colonial - and has now gained strokes T2G, OTT, & on Approach in each of his last five starts. The vet brings that sharp form to a Muirfield layout on which he's ran off six consecutive made cuts, as well as a pair of top-10s since 2016.
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