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Marc Hulet reviews five MLB prospect sleepers for 2021 fantasy baseball redraft leagues. These players could be undervalued draft targets for deep leagues in the later rounds.
This time last year, I provided RotoBaller readers with some sleeper prospect names for 2020 redraft leagues. The advice aged quite well despite the stunted major league season and lack of minor league games.
Among my predictions, I spoke glowingly about Tony Gonsolin — a pitcher that had not received much love from others. However, if you listened to the advice, then you ended up with a pitcher that outperformed the more-heralded Dustin May. Another prediction, Jared Walsh, slugged nine home runs in 32 games. Little-known pitcher Drew Rasmussen produced a 5.87 ERA but his xERA was 3.37 and he limited hitters to a 29% hard-hit rate and produced a strikeout rate just shy of 30%.
Looking deeper, outfielder Brent Rooker jumped out to a great start to his MLB debut with a 161 wRC+ in seven games before he suffered a broken arm. Pitcher Shane McClanahan’s opportunities were lessened by the shorter season but he made his MLB debut in the playoffs and is looking like a possible breakout player for 2021. Perhaps my biggest miss was Mauricio Dubon who still hit .274 with a modest 100 wRC+. However, he also produced a 122 wRC+ in his final 24 games and, during that stretch, he had a walk rate of 11% and an ISO of 182. But that’s enough looking back. Let’s look forward to the 2021 season, which will hopefully last the full 162 games. Below, you’ll find five players that could be better-than-expected during the coming season.
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Victor Gonzalez - RP, Los Angeles Dodgers
RotoBaller Top 250 Dynasty Ranking: NA
The Dodgers develop so many good pitchers that Gonzalez may have flown under the radar for many in 2020. A former minor league starting pitcher, the Mexico native underwent Tommy John surgery in 2017 and missed much of two seasons. He came back throwing harder and transitioned to the bullpen in 2019.
Last season, Gonzalez appeared in 15 games for the Dodgers and held big-league hitters to a .173 batting average. He threw a ton of strikes (2.5% BB-rate) and missed a healthy number of bats (29% K-rate). Hitters also had a very difficult time getting the ball into the air against Gonzalez and he generated an elite 69% ground-ball rate. As a result, he did not allow a home run. If we dig a little deeper into the numbers, we find that Gonzalez generated a 0% barrel rate. His launch angle allowed was a ridiculous minus 2.4 degrees. And his xwOBA was .221. Pretty much every result was elite.
Now, the Dodgers’ pitching depth is pretty strong so he’s not going to open the year acquiring saves. However, if Kenley Jansen (age 33) or Blake Treinen (32) get hurt, Gonzalez is my favorite to move up into the high-leverage innings and eventually acquire key saves and/or holds. The young southpaw (23% ownership in Ottoneu) has outperformed the more-heralded but less-effective Brusdar Graterol (86%). Gonzalez’s ADP at 488 is currently 100 points lower than the former Minnesota Twins pitcher. He’d be a sneaky-good addition in dynasty leagues or a solid late-round (or low-dollar) grab in 2021 redraft leagues.
Adrian Morejon - SP/RP, San Diego Padres
RotoBaller Top 250 Dynasty Ranking: 177
Morejon might seem like an odd target given the Padres’ frenetic pitching acquisitions during the offseason. The club acquired Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, and Joe Musgrove and that trio joins Chris Paddack and Dinelson Lamet (not to mentioned the injured Mike Clevinger) to make a very impressive starting staff. Oh, and I forgot to mention MacKenzie Gore, who is ranked by Rotoballer as the second-best pitching prospect in dynasty baseball.
So why Morejon? The truth is that Morejon might be better suited to a hybrid pitching role that sees him coming out of the bullpen for two or three innings at a time. The Cuba native shows above-average stuff but he has below-average command. He struck out 25 batters in 19.1 innings during his MLB debut last year, good for a 32% strikeout rate, but allowed seven home runs.
His four-seam fastball, which sits around 96-97 mph, was creamed at the MLB level in 2020 and it generated an .806 slugging percentage (.763 xSLG) and .484 wOBA (.481 xwOBA). His splitter and curveball were both effective offerings but fastball command is key for any pitcher. The secondary stuff has a chance to be even better once quality strikes are thrown on a regular basis. Morejon doesn't have a long history of command issues and his control is pretty good so I'm expecting a much-improved fastball in 2021.
*It’s possible that Morejon will open the 2021 season in the starting rotation with Dinelson Lamet sidelined with an injury before transitioning to the bullpen.
Brent Rooker - 1B/OF, Minnesota Twins
RotoBaller Top 250 Dynasty Ranking: 128
Let’s try this again. As mentioned above, Rooker appeared on my list of 2020 redraft sleepers too, and he was on his way to making me look good (161 wRC+ in seven games) when an errant pitch broke his forearm. The slugging outfielder produced elite power numbers in 2019 at triple-A (.259 ISO) but the results were somewhat hidden when he played in just 65 games (due to another injury). His ISO has never been lower than .211 in four pro seasons.
Rooker may not hit for a high batting average due to significant swing-and-miss to his game but he has 20-25 home run pop as an everyday player. In a small sample at the MLB level, the outfielder had a 50% hard-hit rate and has a history of regularly stinging the ball and producing elite line-drive rates. He’s also shown a strong walk rate in the minors which increases his value in on-base leagues.
With an ADP over 600 and an 11% ownership rate in Ottoneu, he’s not on many radars right now in part because Alex Kirilloff is getting all the love in Minnesota. Rooker is having a strong spring so far while Kirilloff has been fine but nothing special. There is regular playing time available in left field and Rooker could also back up Miguel Sano at first base and Nelson Cruz at DH.
Jonathan India - 2B/3B, Cincinnati Reds
RotoBaller Top 250 Dynasty Ranking: 182
Back in 2018, third basemen Alec Bohm and India were considered among the top-five college hitters available in the amateur draft. Bohm, whom I favored at the time, went third overall to the Phillies and broke out at the MLB level in 2020 after having a strong minor league career. India slipped to the Reds at the fifth overall slot in the amateur draft and, although he produced OK as a pro to this point, he lacked the impact power and advanced hitting skill that Bohm has shown.
When last we saw India playing competitive ball, he spent the majority of the season in high-A ball where he hit .256 with a .155 ISO rate and 23% strikeout rate. He managed a 125 wRC+ due to the tough hitting environment that he was in but nothing jumped off the stat sheet. First-hand scouting reports were also less than glowing. But it turns out that he was also dealing with a wrist injury.
India reportedly had a solid showing at the Reds’ alternate training site in 2020. He’s looked excellent so far this spring. The key for the former top prospect is to avoid trying to be someone he’s not. India slugged 21 home runs in 68 games in his junior year of college but the power spike was out-of-the-blue and he’s never come close to replicating it. Power is just not a huge part of his game. However, he does have the ability to sting the ball on a line and could eventually produce 30+ doubles in a season to go along with 15 home runs. He’s also showing an improved ability to make consistent contact and has always had a good eye and strong walk rates.
If he can handle second base on a regular basis (which appears promising), India becomes much more interesting — especially since he’s still capable of occasionally handling third base, and eligibility at multiple positions is never a bad thing in fantasy baseball. I’ve never been a huge supporter of India but my opinions are quickly changing. He has an ADP in the 700s and a 17% ownership rate in Ottoneu leagues.
Bobby Bradley - 1B, Cleveland Indians
RotoBaller Top 250 Dynasty Ranking: NA
What we have here is the perfect storm of opportunity, raw potential, and improved dedication. The young slugger spent the 2019 season at triple-A where he slugged 33 home runs. He also made his MLB debut and six of his eight hits went for extra bases. On the negative side, he hit just .178 and struck out at a 40% clip. Bradley was then stuck at Cleveland’s alternate training site in 2020 and did not appear in a big-league game.
Perhaps motivated by the lack of an opportunity in 2020, Bradley reportedly lost 35 pounds during the offseason. He’s hitting with power again this spring but his bat looks quicker and, perhaps most importantly, he’s struck out just three times in 18 at-bats. If he can get the strikeout rate down from the 30-35% range to even the 22-25% range, then he becomes all the more dangerous.
The makeup of the Indians’ 40-man roster works against Bradley, who has a minor-league option remaining. He’s in competition for the starting first base gig with Jake Bauers, who does not have options. The defensively-challenged Franmil Reyes is earmarked to open the year at the DH spot. Even right-fielder Josh Naylor is best-suited to first base or the DH role. But if Bradley can power his way through the muck and find regular playing time, he has a chance to produce plus power and strong on-base numbers while costing very little to acquire in most fantasy leagues with an ADP of 721 (and 2% ownership in Ottoneu leagues).
Other names considered: Jarren Duran (Red Sox), Taylor Trammell (Mariners), Josh Rojas (Diamondbacks), Heliot Ramos (Giants)
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