2021 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - Leody Taveras

March 4, 2021

Texas Rangers outfielder Leody Taveras is an undervalued draft target and fantasy baseball sleeper for 2021. Jamie Steed evaluates Taveras' value based on current ADP.

Leody Taveras received a call-up to the Texas Rangers last year despite never playing Triple-A and with only 65 games at Double-A under his belt. Given the Rangers' lack of outfield depth, it might not have come as a complete shock as Taveras entered 2020 as the Rangers no.1 outfield prospect.

Taveras played in 33 games and ended the year with a .227/.308/.395 slash line, with four homers, eight steals, 20 runs and six RBI. Taveras strikeout rate (K%) of 32.1% wasn't unexpected given his lack of experience but he did have a decent 10.4% walk rate (BB%).

So what can we expect from Taveras heading into the 2021 season and is he a worthwhile addition to your fantasy roster given the relatively low draft capital you'll need to use to grab him?

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ADP & Projections

Taveras has an ADP of ~201 heading into March and is the 54th outfield eligible player being taken. As we see with many rookies with little to no MLB experience, the games played could be a little bit on the light side. The BAT and BATX projections also have Taveras down on stolen bases compared to others, but all other models are in close agreement on what to expect this year.

If we simply multiply Taveras numbers from last year by four, we get a similar outlook;

132 G, 536 PA, 16 HR, 80 R, 24 RBI, 32 SB.

Over a full season, it'll be nearly impossible to hit 16 homers and only register 24 RBI but overall, these numbers and projections do display a positive outlook for Taveras in 2021.

Prospect and Minor League numbers

Taveras scouting grades from last year (according to MLB Pipeline), almost perfectly predicted what Taveras did in his MLB debut by displaying above-average speed but below-average power and a solid hit tool. While the defensive aspects aren't considered important for fantasy as they do not get included in any scoring, it is crucial in keeping Taveras in the lineup if his bat is struggling.

On the standard 20-80 grading scale, 50 is league average so it's clear where Taveras strengths lie.

Since making his Minor League debut in 2016 as a 17-year-old, Taveras has now totaled 470 Minor League games with 19 homers, 89 steals and a .260/.323/.358 slash line. Something that is noticeable is that the 89 steals came from 127 attempts (70% success rate) but Taveras was 8 from 8 in stolen bases in the Majors. Something a lot of prospects struggle with is turning their speed into stolen bases when facing Major League pitchers and catchers so it's encouraging to see Taveras have early success there.

2021 Expectations

Fantasy managers' need for speed is greater than ever with many 'primary base-stealing players' being drafted at elevated picks. While Taveras's main asset is his speed, unlike previous speedsters who are something of a black hole across other stats (Ben Revere, I'm looking at you), Taveras does has a bit of pop and should hit double-digit home runs. Potentially, Taveras is a regular 20-20 contributor in the near future.

Taveras did have a disappointing .227 batting average last year and that was largely in part due to his 32.1% K%. As he becomes more accustomed to Major League pitching, the strikeouts should drop given his Minor League career K% is 17.45% and he never had a year with a higher K% than 20.93%. Patience and pitch selection are things that generally develop with experience.

The week following his call-up, Taveras was installed as the Rangers leadoff hitter and that is likely to remain the case in 2021. The Rangers will need to manufacture runs and with a projected sub-.500 record, will need to utilize Taveras speed as much as possible. His 100% record in stolen base attempts last year should give Manager Chris Woodward more confidence to greenlight Taveras this year, increasing his potential steals total to a point 30 this season is possible.

Taveras' ADP does seem low when we look at his projections to comparable players going ahead of him. Below is a comparison of ATC projections for Taveras, Dylan Moore and Victor Robles, both of whom are being drafted significantly ahead of Taveras.

There's certainly not a big enough discrepancy in the projections for Taveras to drafted 86 picks after Moore or 43 after Robles. In fact, you could argue Taveras deserves to go ahead of Moore in drafts.

It shouldn't come as a surprise if Taveras struggles a bit early in the season as he continues his fledgling career, but he should benefit from a full Spring Training in 2021. He offers plus speed and as a leadoff hitter, will score a good number of runs. Taveras has enough pop to help in homers and is expected to have a league-average batting average. Taveras biggest asset is the most sought-after fantasy offensive statistic and he has the upside to end the year as a top-100 player if his overall development gains speed.

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