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Jake Finnen provides his NBA DFS prop picks for January 8th, 2021 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy basketball advice.
There's a 10-game slate Friday with plenty of exciting matchups. The last two games of the night, however, don't seem to follow that trend. Between the Lakers and Bulls, Chicago is lucky to catch LeBron James and the rest of the Los Angeles team on the second night of a back to back. The Lakers starters were pulled with two minutes left, down ten Thursday night, so assuming they will still be on the less-fatigued side, there isn't much upside for the Bulls here.
As for the Raptors and Kings, Toronto has been one of the worst fourth quarter teams in the league. Committing the most amount of turnovers during the clutch, not to mention they are among worst three point shooting teams near the end of a game. There is a reason they are 1-6, but they are likely to turn around and playing the Kings is the perfect chance. It's only a matter of finding that last piece of the puzzle to opens up the floor for the starters to really shine.
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PHX@DET
Devin Booker(PHX) OVER 24.5 Points - Jerami Grant(DET) OVER 19.5 Points
The last week has been great for Devin Booker and he has increased his average points per game by a full two points, making this over seem like an easy bet. If the Suns were playing any other team, there would be obvious concerns, but betting AGAINST a game-changing scorer playing the worst defense in the league will likely not fare well for you. Don't let gamblers fallacy talk you out of this one.
The same goes for Jerami Grant. It seems like this is going to be a thing for a while now until that points over/under significantly rises. He is way too valuable to the offense to NOT let him take as many shots as he wants. I'll let the eye test dictate when his hot streak ends, but as of right now, his hot streak is dependent on minutes and that's not changing.
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OKC@NYK
Julius Randle (NYK) OVER 22.5 Points - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) LESS 21.5 Points
Julius Randle has been a beast in every aspect, but the Knicks did just announce the signing of Taj Gibson. Meaning Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau is going to play him a modest 40 minutes every night. That's a joke, but Randle's overall production is going to be affected by every bit of Gibson's minutes. The 22.5 point over should be no problem, but this might one of the last times it's a safe bet.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is facing the Knicks defense which causes problems and the pace of this game might not allow for enough production from a point guard that can't space the floor like he'll need to. If the rest of the offense is struggling and Gilgeous-Alexander can't hit outside shots, it won't be easy for him to get to the paint with the Knicks frontcourt makeup.
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CHA@NOP
Brandon Ingram (NOP) OVER 23.5 Points - Gordon Hayward (CHA) OVER 19.5
Brandon Ingram has proved early this season that 20-point games are nothing for him. The Hornets defense is nothing to fear and unless Ingram just has a bad night, there little downside for him anywhere.
As for Gordon Hayward, who is coming off a career-high last game, there is just as little downside. He has been consistent outside of scoring during his short tenure in Charlotte, and now that he has officially seemed to knock the rust off, the chances of him turning around and posting a sub-20 point dud is either perfectly in character, or my bias speaking way too loudly. Let's assume that's just the bias talking
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WAS@BOS
Bradley Beal (WAS) OVER 29.5 Points - Jayson Tatum (BOS) MORE 27.5
These are two extremely high point totals for each, but anyone paying attention knows these are well-deserved. Bradley Beal posted a career-high 60 points last game and if there is anything true about the Wizards offense, is that it's Bradley Beal. No matter the defense, matchup, snow or shine, Beal is scoring and going off. The last time he played Boston he scored 44.
Jayson Tatum, in slightly similar fashion, also had a scoring explosion, scoring 40 once last week, scoring at least 24 every other game. Against a terrible defense that will be gifting him possessions and open shots, you can't really bank on him just having a bad game or the rest of the Celtics simply taking control without help from Tatum. He needs to come out firing every night and Friday night at home versus Washington is an easy target.
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UTA@MIL
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) OVER 25.5 Points - Donovan Mitchell (UTA) OVER 23.5
Unfortunately for Giannis Antetokounmpo, the pace of this game is going to be severely slowed down. Not that he won't be able to score over 30 points since he owns the Jazz whenever he plays them, but playing against this team always keep possessions at a minimum. It's somewhat understandable to fade him against a quality defense and Rudy Gobert, but Antetokounmpo has only posted sub-25 point games twice this season, both in blowout victories.
For the Jazz offense, there really aren't any options that can facilitate and drive with force like Donovan Mitchell. Utah will go to Joe Ingles for offense, but rarely is it freeing up space for anyone but outside shooters. Mitchell is up for plenty of usage as usual, but playing Jrue Holiday is going to be a long game. You can trust he can score and will, but it won't be easy and the Bucks are more likely to make Mitchell try and beat them with his shooting rather than letting the shooters Bojan Bogdanovic and Jordan Clarkson get hot.
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ORL@HOU
James Harden (HOU) OVER 29.5 Points - Nikola Vucevic (ORL) OVER 19.5
The last time these two teams met and James Harden played, he scored 23 points on 19 shots. The time before that, he scored 54. Jonathan Isaac was a key piece to this defense and since he has been gone, the frontcourt makeup is not ready for what Harden throws at defenses. 30 points is 12 points over his average PPG last week, so it can be intimidating, but this is James Harden versus, at best Terrence Ross.
Nikola Vucevic is a certified source of consistency and production. There is no doubt about it that he will have no problem with the Rockets frontcourt, especially if Christian Wood isn't playing. His ability to do everything does take away from his raw scoring, but the Rockets just don't have the size to keep Vucevic from his patented turnaround and paint presence.
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BKN@MEM
Dillon Brooks (MEM) LESS 18.5 Points - Caris Levert (ORL) OVER 17.5
If Nikola Vucevic is a certified scorer, then Dillon Brooks is bonafide scrub. For his usage, the fact that he is posting such minimal stats is absolutely terrible. Because of this, he is going to score 30 points against the Nets and make me eat every single word. As a betting man, I refuse to bet on his scoring ability against any team, even one without their two best players.
Caris LeVert was the captain and leader of the Nets last night after the public learned of Kyrie Irving's "disappearance." He took control from start to finish and that is something he grew accustomed to before he was benched for one of the greatest players in the league. Kevin Durant will return and take the usage and production away, but for the time being, have fun with all the unders Caris LeVert is lined up for.
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