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Fantasy is always unpredictable, especially in this most unparalleled of seasons. Even the best players put up dud performances. Not all duds are created equal though. Some disastrous performances are signs of more to come. Here are Week 12's studs turned duds.
Week 12 was a weird and uncompromising group of games in the NFL. There were unexpected upsets, blowouts, and postponements. Heck, it's Wednesday, and the slate of games isn't even over yet. Besides Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh being stuck in an endless delay loop that has pushed back and altered Week 13, we saw Denver play without an eligible quarterback and San Francisco plan for an immediate future without a home stadium in which to practice or play.
All that was perhaps an omen for the fantasy side of things. Week 12 was as bad as things have gotten all season for the studs of fantasy football. We saw an unbelievable batch of dud performances from some of the best and most talented players in football. And those outings came at the worst possible time.
For many fantasy leagues, Week 12 is the final matchup of the regular season. What follows are two, two-week matchups to determine a champion, skipping Week 17. That means these duds may have knocked many an owner out of the fantasy postseason. Here are Week 12's studs turned duds.
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We said it last week. Taysom Hill is bad news for Kamara. Week 11 was Kamara's worst game of the season, and Week 12 came in another rung lower. He finished with 52 yards from scrimmage, one reception, and no scores. He was also easily outpaced by teammate Latavius Murray for the first time this season. It is obvious that this is going to be the New Orleans game plan for as long as Drew Brees remains out. Neither back is going to be a threat in the passing game because the team is hardly going to pass the ball. And all of Kamara, Murray, and Hill are going to carry the ball multiple times per game. It is the worst-case scenario for Kamara managers outside of an injury.
Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
Not only did the top player in fantasy - Kamara - have a bad week, but the number two player did as well. Cook had his worst game of the season by far, collecting 82 total yards, no scores, and a fumble. Everything was set up for Cook to go off. Minnesota was facing the bad Carolina run defense, and it was doing so without Adam Thielen, meaning Cook would be leaned on even more. Instead, Kirk Cousins had his best game of the season, spreading the ball around to five different receivers at least four times apiece. The Vikings also needed an 18-point fourth quarter to squeak out a victory, which led to Cousins' 45 pass attempts on the day.
DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals
One of the best wide receivers in the league put up his second straight crummy performance. After finishing with 51 empty yards last week, Hopkins had just 55 this time out as Arizona lost a bad one to New England. This wasn't a case of Hopkins being taken out of the game and other receivers carrying the load. Instead, the Cardinals' passing offense was altogether shut down. Hopkins still finished with the team high in targets, catches, and yards.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
One of the reasons for Hopkins' bad day was the huge dud put up by Murray at quarterback. Through (nearly) 12 weeks, Murray has the most fantasy points of any player in the NFL. He is, statistically, the stud of studs. But this one was as bad as it gets for fantasy managers. Murray collected 170 yards through the air, 31 yards on the ground, no scores, and turned the ball over. Some folks may try to point to a shoulder injury as the reason for the poor play, but Murray squashed that. Others opine as to whether NFL defenses have solved Murray with strategy. It will be up to Kliff Kingsbury to adjust back before this turns into a tailspin for the Arizona offense.
Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints
Thomas was the outlet for Hill in the quarterback's first start. In his second, Thomas fell victim to the game plan like the rest of the Saints skill players. He totaled 51 yards on four catches and one carry. The Saints are running so much that even Thomas is forced to get his touches on the ground. In the past three games (since the data isn't specifically broken into two-week chunks to account for Hill's starts), the Saints are dead last in the league in passing percentage. They are the only team to find itself below 40 percent. This is obviously working for the team's success, but like Kamara, it is not working at all for Thomas' fantasy production.
Running from Bad to Worse
Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Ezekiel Elliott were both first-round picks in drafts this season. They have both had debilitating fantasy seasons having nothing to do with injury. And even after multiple disappointing weeks for the both of them, they each found a new nadir in Week 12. Edwards-Helaire had 39 total yards in the midst of a Kansas City offensive masterpiece. The ball was flying all over the field with ease, and the rookie barely got involved. Not finding running success against Tampa Bay is nothing to cry about, but this is the fourth time this season CEH caught one or zero balls in a game. He is simply not the asset in the pasing game everyone expected him to be. He has also found room to run (averaging more than 4 yards per carry) just four times this season.
Elliott saw his season take an even more drastic turn downward. After a bounce back Week 11, this week proved to be the worst of all for Elliott. It came against a very bad Washington squad, which speaks to how low things are for Dallas. The remaining schedule appears relatively favorable, but if Dallas is forced to abandon the run and can get blown out by Washington, it can happen against anyone.
Defensive Downturn
It is rare to call out a defense for turning from stud to dud. There haven't even really been a group of consistent stud defenses this season. Case in point, in Week 12, three of the top defenses in the NFL each collected negative fantasy points for managers (depending on league settings). Indianapolis, Chicago, and Tampa Bay are (or were) three of the best in real life and in fantasy terms. It seems safe to say that only Pittsburgh can be counted on week in and week out now, and we haven't even gotten to see the Steelers play yet in Week 12.
Honorable Mentions
We never go this deep in Studs Turned Duds because there aren't usually this many opportunities to do so. By definition, it is unlikely to see someone on the list. If they are a stud, they are normally really good at football. But Week 12 was just so bad that not even the above list can capture everyone who is within reach of that stud tier:
- Russell Wilson and Josh Allen - definitive QB studs; disappointing but not all-out terrible games
- Aaron Jones - definitive RB stud; disappointing but not all-out terrible game
- Kareem Hunt - borderline RB stud with really bad outing
- Tyler Lockett and Cooper Kupp - borderline WR studs with really bad outings
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