RADIO
Joe Nicely digs into his PGA DFS Core Four for the Masters, an article that provides DraftKings daily fantasy golf lineup selections.
Hello RotoBallers, and thank you very much for joining me for the Masters!
I imagine you guys aren't too interested in a recap of the Houston Open, since we have THE FREAKIN' MASTERS this week! Let's just dive right in, shall we?
The 'Core Four' will usually be spread across different DraftKings price points, but every week in PGA DFS is different and this article will reflect that by trying to give you an overall outlook of how the slate is shaping up. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!
The Masters Notes
Hey guys and thanks for joining me again here at RotoBaller! I won't spend any time on the Houston Open as we have the grandaddy of 'em all on tap this week...it's MASTERS SZN!
This is my favorite golf tournament in the world and my excitement to be studying a Masters PGA DFS slate in November is off the charts! Obviously, this field is ultra elite. While it's a good "problem" to have, this can sometimes make it tough to narrow our player pool down to a sharp core.
My feelings about this week are somewhat mixed honestly, as I absolutely love what's available at the top of the board, but feel lukewarm as we work our way down the salary scale. However, with so many strong options, it's tempting to "play them all", a mistake that we know can lead us off track in DFS. So as a result, we're forced to make some tough decisions at the top of the board and make a couple of "stands" in our Core Four. While there's a buffet of options at the top of the salary scale, I'm not in love with the $7k price range this week - an area where we can usually "make hay" in major championships. This leads to a Masters Core Four that leans towards "Stars & Scrubs".
My Core Four picks are listed below and I would STRONGLY advise that you guys also check out the "Just Missed" List that I include at the bottom of the write-up, as it is a great resource for some of my other favorite plays on this exciting slate...and, truthfully, it's the "secret sauce" that's needed when building multiple lineups. As I mentioned above, there are some great options that I was forced to leave out of this week's core build.
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.
The Core Four
Dustin Johnson - DraftKings: $10,000
I feel I hammered it home in the intro, but there are some tough choices to be made at the top of the board this week. Honestly, I wouldn't argue with any player that you wanted to lock in above $9.6k...that's how deep the top of the salary scale is this week. That said, while we can grab a little exposure to all of these guys when building multiple GPP lineups, we're forced to make hard decisions to make our "Core" Builds as sharp as possible.
While it pains me to skip over guys like Bryson, JT, and Rahm...I'll be starting my Core Builds this week with Dustin Johnson at $10k. I'm aware that he'll be popular, but I'm willing to differentiate my lineups in other spots in order to lock him in.
DJ has been the best player since the restart. He's posted multiple wins and multiple runner-up finishes over recent months. He leads this ultra-elite Masters field in all of the following major statistical categories over the last 24 rounds: SG: Total, T2G, Ball Striking, Approach and DraftKings Points Scored. It appears not even COVID-19 can slow him down right now, as DJ rebounded from a multiple-week layoff to gain over 10 strokes T2G in Houston last week.
In addition to the beastly current form, Johnson's track record at Augusta National is elite. After struggling at AGNC initially in his career (which happens to lots of players), DJ has cracked the Masters code in recent years, with last year's runner-up finish marking his fourth-straight top-10 result in the Masters.
Listen, I'm admittedly a long-time DJ apologist, but I've tried to take my personal biases out of this evaluation. There's no doubt that Johnson has disappointed many times by failing to close the door in major championships. Can that happen again here? Absolutely. It is unfathomably hard to win any golf tournament - much less the Masters - but all the pieces are in place for DJ to be a strong contender for the title this week.
Xander Schauffele - DraftKings: $9,800
You can make a strong argument for Brooks Koepka at this same price point or drop down to Bubba Watson to give yourself more salary flexibility, but I love what Xander Schauffele brings to the table enough to lock him into this week's Core Four.
We can go through all the statistics, all the recent results, and all the major-championship results here if you'd like...but let me just tell you that after a solid 10 days of poring over both the Masters and every player in this field...there are no holes in Xander's resume. He's rock-solid in every facet of the game, has the specific tools needed for success at Augusta National, and possesses a major-championship mindset with the required mental toughness.
In addition to the physical and mental tools, Schauffele has learned quickly at AGNC, going from a T50 in his Masters debut two years ago to a tie for second place last year.
Tony Finau - DraftKings: $8,800
"Value" doesn't necessarily mean "dirt cheap"...so while Tony Finau's $8.8k price tag is one that's a little higher than what we'd normally consider a "value play", I believe he still qualifies as a bargain.
The knock on Finau is that he can't close the door on wins...that's fair. However, if we're being brutally honest here, he has the same number of major championships as guys like Rahm, Xander, Cantlay, and Hatton...all players that are priced above him this week. In the simplest of terms, all golfers have zero until they win their first one.
Despite not actually winning a major, he's still consistently demonstrated the ability to play well enough to log high-end finishes in major championships (which brings us back around to his reasonable $8.8k price tag...we don't have to have a win at this price). That's been especially true in the Masters, where he's went T5-T10 in two career starts. His game fits Augusta National like a glove, as he's able to take advantage of all four Par-5s and manage the lengthy Par-4s. Finau's length becomes even more of a factor when we consider the expected-to-be-soft-nature of the golf course this week.
Cameron Smith - DraftKings: $7,300
As I mentioned in the intro, the $7k price range feels stale to me this week, which is disappointing considering it's often a nice sweet spot in major championships. Many of the players in the $7k range forces us to decide between either good recent form or good course history, with very few players in possession of both the desired qualities.
One notable exception is Cameron Smith at $7.3k. The Aussie has a "solid enough" Masters track record - T51-T5-T55 - to go along with some trending recent form. The concern with Smith is always his spotty ball striking, but he's solidified his iron play as of late and has gained strokes on Approach in eight consecutive starts dating back to the PGA Championship. That improved iron play has resulted in top-25 finishes in six of his last seven starts, with a T4 in his most recent outing at the ZOZO Championship.
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The "Just Missed" List
Bryson DeChambeau - ($11,200)
It's always tough to include the highest-priced player on the slate in the Core Four, that's especially true when you don't love many of the available options in the $7k price range. Though I wasn't able to squeeze Bryson into core builds, I'll certainly have plenty of exposure this week, as I believe the possibility that he dominates this tournament is very real. Distance is always an advantage on this layout, Bryson's freakish distance will only amplify that advantage. However, Augusta National's many subtleties and nuances will still present DeChambeau with challenges. He'll need to hit his wedges very well (not always a guarantee) and bring his "A Game" with the flatstick (without the help of his beloved green-reading book).
Justin Thomas - ($10,700)
JT has yet to fully crack the code at the Masters, though a career-best T12 last year indicates he's headed in the right direction. He's a player that you can trust fully, as his game has no real weaknesses. Thomas has been consistently tremendous T2G with only an inconsistent putter holding him back from time to time. I believe that will be the case again this week, if his putter is warm-to-hot he can win and even if he's struggling on the greens we're probably still looking at a very strong finish. A great combination of safety and upside.
Jon Rahm - ($10,500)
A major championship win feels almost inevitable. Is this the week? It very well could be, as Rahm has been tremendous over the last several months, picking up two wins on tough golf courses against elite fields. The Masters has also been his "best" major to this point in his young career as his finishes of T9 and 4th over the last two years reflect.
Rory McIlroy - ($10,200)
Just a Masters win away from the Career Grand Slam, putting on a green jacket has proven elusive for Rory. Form has been very spotty since the restart, but he always plays well here - and has historically played very well in soft, wet conditions. You're never gonna sneak up on anybody by rostering Rory McIlroy, but his ownership should be the lowest of the $10k-plus group.
Brooks Koepka - ($9,700)
At least for the short term, I'm never going to doubt Brooks Koepka in major-championship environments. Despite the injuries, poor form, and whatever other reason you want to throw out for why he can't win...believe me, he certainly can, as he's one of the few "young guns" that's displayed the ability to rack up majors in bunches. He looked solid in Houston last week and it wouldn't surprise me if he's in the mix to win this thing.
Patrick Cantlay - ($9,600)
I've been a big believer in Cantlay for the last couple of years, but he's consistently disappointed since the restart until winning at the ZOZO a few weeks ago. That's the Cantlay we expected to see all year and the Cantlay we have to hope for at this price tag. Has all the tools needed to contend and briefly held the Masters lead in the final round last year. It's just tough starting lineups with him when you have guys like Koepka, Schauffele, and DJ available for just a few more hundred bucks.
Bubba Watson - ($9,000)
I've been banging the Bubba drum loudly over the last several weeks and the mercurial lefty has produced excellent results. His ball striking is elite at the moment, as he grades out second in this field in SG: T2G & Ball Striking over the last 24 rounds. We can also throw in the fact that he absolutely loves Augusta National and is a two-time Masters champion. Outside of kinda the inherent erratic (and eccentric) nature of Bubba himself, there's a lot to love about this play.
Hideki Matsuyama - ($8,700)
Hideki and Tony Finau feel like almost the same guy here. I prefer Tony's length and consistency both in recent majors and in recent months. That said, Matsuyama is a rock-solid play in his own right, as his form and Masters resume are both strong.
Jason Day - ($8,400)
He won't be coming anywhere near my core build, but I'll definitely (grossly) have some Jason Day exposure this week. His Masters record is almost impossible to ignore - three top-fives and has never finished worse than T28 outside of a WD in 2012 - but there is that pesky WD factor that will always loom around Day...which makes him strictly a GPP play for me.
Louis Oosthuizen - ($7,900)
Was one of the last players eliminated from the Core Four this week. Just a really solid sub-$8k option due to his experience at Augusta National, major championship track record, and rock-solid recent form.
Matthew Fitzpatrick - ($7,600)
Another player that was almost included in the Core Four. Really like Fitzpatrick's price tag and he's the standout play for me in the mid-$7ks. Often relies heavily on the putter, but his iron play has been consistently strong as of late. Has played well in prior Masters appearances, but his lack of length off the tee - in combination with the soft conditions this week - was a big enough concern for me to leave him out of the Core Four.
Lee Westwood - ($7,200) & Ian Poulter - ($7,000)
These two are basically the "same guy" to me this week...veterans with tons of great Masters experience and good recent form. Both have been extremely consistent at Augusta National throughout their careers and have demonstrated with recent results - both in Europe and the U.S. - that they still have the ability to compete at a very high level (Westy posted a runner-up here in 2016 and Poulter a T12 last year). I'll be utilizing these two heavily this week.
Jason Kokrak - ($7,000) It's not impossible for a first-timer to play well in the Masters, but history teaches us it's certainly difficult. That's the only thing holding me back from tons of Jason Kokrak exposure this week (and is most likely the reason for this really low price). At just $7k, he ranks eighth in this field in SG: T2G over the last 24 rounds and also has the length off the tee that we're heavily weighting this week.
Sub-$7k Plays - With all the temptation that lies at the top of the salary scale, we'll want to dip below $7k in some instances this week. I would rate the options as "decent", but definitely not "great"...with none of these players being in true "core" consideration. However, there are some things to like down here. Here are my favorites in order of their price:
Erik Van Rooyen / Si Woo Kim / Zach Johnson / Sebastian Munoz / Francesco Molinari / Lanto Griffin / Justin Harding (Dart Throw)
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