Champ or Chump: Year in Review

October 3, 2020

Rick Lucks takes a look at his predictions throughout the 2020 regular season to identify useful statistics and any avenues of improvement moving forward. Is he a Champ or a Chump?

Now that the 2020 fantasy baseball season has come to a close, it is time to assess your performance. Did you ignore red flags that you wish you hadn't? Was a strong process foiled by unpredictable factors outside of anybody's control?

Both of these things are likely true to some extent. The key is to identify what worked well and any areas of opportunity for improvement next season.

With this in mind, let's go back and revisit each of the nine players that received in-season write-ups in this column over the 2020 season. We will review each player's name, publication date, and a brief synopsis of the argument made. We will also look at how a player actually performed to get a better sense of what we should look for in the future. Let's get started!

7/25 Nate Pearson (SP TOR)

Original Verdict: Champ

Hindsight: Chump

Pearson offered a lot to like heading into the season: he's a hard thrower who generates a ton of spin with a strong MiLB resume. Success seemed like a foregone conclusion, leading to easy (if lazy) Max Scherzer comps. Unfortunately, Pearson got off to a slow start before a flexor strain in his right elbow kept him out of action for over a month. He ended up with a 6.00 ERA and 3.7 K-BB% over 18 IP, numbers that didn't help fantasy gamers at all.

That said, Pearson struck out five over two scoreless relief innings in the playoffs and maintains the stuff and pedigree that made him a desirable add in fantasy. His 2020 may have been a dud, but he'll likely be a hot name during the 2021 draft season. Just save the Scherzer comps until he does something at the MLB level.

Miss

8/1 Isiah Kiner-Falefa (C/3B/SS, TEX)

Original Verdict: Champ

Hindsight: Champ

Isiah Kiner-Falefa was virtually unknown before the season began, and playing for the lowly Texas Rangers doesn't help you get your name out there. Still, this column suggested adding him for his catcher eligibility, everyday playing time, and his potential for "steals with a workable average." He delivered exactly that, slashing .280/.329/.370 with eight steals and three homers while working his way to the heart of the Rangers order. Considering how bad catchers performed as a whole, you got a free top-five catcher here.

Sadly, Kiner-Falefa didnt log a single game behind the plate in 2020, so he won't have catcher eligibility in 2021. He was also caught stealing five times, so his speed won't play as well at other positions. He was a great add in 2020, but your 2021 plans probably shouldn't include him.

Win

8/8 Jo Adell (OF, LAA)

Original Verdict: Chump

Hindsight: Chump

Adell's major league arrival was greeted with the enthusiasm expected for a top prospect, but his MiLB track record included a ton of swing-and-miss and a meager 35 HR over 1,004 PAs. His MiLB breakout also occured at Hank Aaron Field, a park notorious for inflating offense. This author recommended letting somebody else add him to their roster, prudent advice considering that Adell managed just a .161/.212/.266 line with three homers and a 41.7 K% over 132 PAs.

Adell's prospect pedigree may help him get drafted in 2021, but he appears to be too far away to justify doing so in redraft leagues. He might join his teammate Mike Trout in an All-Star Game someday, but likely not in the immediate future.

Win

8/15 Alec Bohm (3B, PHI)

Original Verdict: Champ

Hindsight: Champ

Every fantasy gamer has a type, and this author loves MiLB bats that combine strong plate discipline numbers with high FB% rates. Alec Bohm's MiLB resume included both, though he seemed to struggle to access his above-average raw power in games. As such, he was recommended to fantasy managers looking for BA, OBP, and Runs with the potential for homers if everything clicked.

Bohm only hit four homers over 180 PAs, so the big-power prospect didn't produce power numbers right away. Adding him to fantasy rosters was still a smart move, as he slashed an insane .338/.400/.481 in his first taste of big league action. He'll probably be a top-100 draft pick in 2021 and could well earn every penny it takes to sign him. Just be wary of his .410 BABIP coming down a little.

Win

8/22 Casey Mize (SP, DET)

Original Verdict: Champ

Hindsight: Chump

Not going to lie: this is the miss that bothers me the most on this list. The original analysis noted that pitch tracking systems like Pitch Info and Statcast detected no discernable difference between Mize's slider and cutter, suggesting that his pitches blur together and lack consistency. I also correctly predicted that the Tigers were a terrible team despite a hot start, leaving Mize with minimal offensive and bullpen support. Yet I still advised adding Mize because "pitch tracking systems aren't foolproof."

The piece was written after Mize's first start, after which he had an ugly 6.23 ERA. That jumped to 6.99 by the time the season concluded, a number completely supported by a 9.8 K-BB%. The lesson here is clear: if a young pitcher's offerings seem to blur together, avoid that arm in fantasy.

Miss

8/29 Jake Cronenworth (1B/2B/SS, SD)

Original Verdict: Champ

Hindsight: Chump

Cronenworth came out of nowhere in 2020, slashing a ridiculous .360/.415/.605 with three homers and a steal through August. His low FB% and middling exit velocity suggested that his power was a mirage, but the column recommended Cronenworth anyway because he was in the 100th percentile of xBA with a .394 mark. The 26-year-old combined a pristine batted ball profile with plus-speed and excellent contact skills, so why wouldn't he continue to hit for a high average?

Naturally, he hit .183 with no homers in September. His plate discipline metrics were still good with a 16.3 K% and 10 BB% that month, so pitchers didn't suddenly figure him out. Instead, his problem was a .224 BABIP that Cronenworth should have no problem besting in 2021. The result was a miss, but the process was sound: Cronenworth should be a good BA investment in 2021 and beyond.

Miss

9/5 Kevin Gausman (SP/RP, SF)

Original Verdict: Champ

Hindsight: Champ

Gausman's is an interesting profile: both his four-seam fastball and splitter are elite pitches, allowing him to pile up Ks like few arms can. However, Gausman also features only those two pitches, making him predictable and increasing his blowup potential. Gausman had a 4.43 ERA reflective of both his upside and downside at the time of his write-up, and he was recommended to managers looking to climb the standings as opposed to teams trying to maintain their ratios.

Gausman provided a significant boost down the stretch, generating a QS in each of his final three starts (2.00 ERA overall) while also notching 24 Ks in that time frame. He remains a high-risk, high-reward fantasy option, but should be able to help fantasy managers in 2021 as well.

Win

9/12 Deivi Garcia (SP, NYY)

Original Verdict: Champ

Hindsight: Variable

Deivi Garcia began his big league career with a bang, posting a 3.06 ERA as an SP. His write-up emphasized strong MiLB stats, stuff scouts rave about, and a solid prospect pedigree, recommending him to all fantasy gamers. His next start against the Blue Jays went well: 7 IP, 3 ER, 6 K. Unfortunately, he followed that up with a clunker against Boston: 3 IP, 6 ER, 2 K. His third start against the Marlins was kind of neutral: 6 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 7 K. He went 2-1 overall, so he helped gamers looking for Wins and Strikeouts but not ratios.

I thought he would be good for ratio help as well, so I'm counting this as a miss. There is some concern that his small frame will land him in a bullpen role, but he should be a worthwhile fantasy starter as long as the Yankees use him in the role.

Miss

9/19 Trent Grisham (OF, SD)

Original Verdict: Champ

Hindsight: Unknown

The Grisham piece noted that Grisham has batting average upside based on his MiLB history, potentially leading to a better 2021 season than his strong 2020. Since the piece is forward-looking by design, it's too soon to determine its accuracy.

Push

Conclusion

Overall, I have four wins, four misses, and a push. Of the misses, I earnestly believe that Pearson and Cronenworth were examples of good analysis belied by small sample sizes, and Garcia was usable in the right situation. Mize was a total miss caused by ignoring a data point that proved prophetic.

Moving forward, I should try to avoid top prospect pitchers, a type of player that I seem to overrate. Relying on plate discipline and HR numbers on the farm appears to be a great way to evaluate rookie bats, and you can never go wrong with proven strikeout stuff at the big league level. What about you?

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