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Kipp Heisterman presents his expert NFL DFS prop picks for Week 4 of the Fantasy Football season. Use these prop picks to win money on Monkey Knife Fight, our partner for all DFS prop picks games.
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As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of in a couple of these games including the Seahawks at Dolphins, Saints at Lions, and Patriots at Chiefs.
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Seahawks @ Dolphins More or Less Contest
Recommended Prop Pick:
Russell Wilson more than 290.5 passing yards and Ryan Fitzpatrick more than 272.5
Russell Wilson has been lighting up defenses to start the 2020 season as noted by his 925 passing yards and 14 touchdowns through his first three games. He has thrown for over 300 yards in two of those three games and threw for 288 in the other. He will be facing a Dolphins Defense that has allowed an average of 281 passing yards per game. Keep in mind, these numbers were put up by the likes of Josh Allen, Cam Newton, and Gardner Minshew III. Wilson should come in and be able to shred this defense with Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. Chris Carson is also worth monitoring, and if he is out, the Seahawks would be even more likely to throw the ball.
While Fitzpatrick has only thrown for 679 through the first three games, he has yet to face an abomination of a defense like the Seahawks' secondary. The Seahawks are allowing nearly 440 passing yards per game by quarterbacks. Let that sink in for a moment, 440! The Dolphins have some solid weapons in the passing game with the likes of DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, and Myles Gaskin for Fitzpatrick to throw the ball too. The Seahawks have also been solid against the run as they have only allowed running backs to rush for 126 yards through the first three games, so running the ball for Miami may not be much of an option. The Dolphins are also 6.5 point underdogs in this game, which means the game script could line up for Fitzpatrick to be throwing the ball a bit more.
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Saints @ Lions More or Less Contest
Recommended Prop Pick:
Matthew Stafford more than 288.5 passing yards and Drew Brees less than 290.5 passing yards
Stafford is having a solid start to the 2020 season as he has thrown for over 800 passing yards and five scores. He lines up in a great spot Sunday to go over this total. First, the Lions are underdogs in this game and will likely be forced to throw the ball more. This is not such a bad thing for Detroit as they essentially have no running game to speak of as they rank 11th-worst in the league in rushing yards. The Saints Defense has been bad against the pass as well as they have allowed nearly 270 passing yards per game. Stafford should be able to find plenty of success against this defense by throwing the ball to the likes of T.J. Hockenson (Saints are last in yards allowed to tight ends), Kenny Golladay, and Marvin Jones Jr.
I do not think Drew Brees is going to be forced to throw the ball much in this game. The Lions have a defense that has given up 439 rushing yards to backs through the first three weeks, which is ranked third-worst in the league. They have also only given up 752 passing yards to quarterbacks, which ranks 12th-best in the league. The Saints will likely enter this game with a plan of getting the ball to Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray out of the backfield. This could and should prove to be a strong enough combination to where Brees will not rack up a ton of passing attempts and yards. The Saints are also four-point favorites in this game, which also leads to more running.
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Patriots @ Chiefs More or Less Contest
Recommended Prop Pick:
Patrick Mahomes more than 292.5 passing yards and Cam Newton more than 226.5 passing yards
We are going with a third more or less contest this week simply because I do not feel especially confident in the fantasy challenges. There is too much uncertainty or too many options to choose from in the games this week to determine exactly where specific production will come from outside of a few obvious spots across the slate.
Mahomes will be going up against a Patriots Defense that allowed Russell Wilson to carve them up for 288 passing yards. Mahomes is just too good to go under on a prop like this. The Pats have allowed an average of 247 passing yards per game to quarterbacks, but aside from Wilson, have only faced Ryan Fitzpatrick and Derek Carr. We all know Mahomes is a different animal as he has thrown for 300 yards in his previous two games, with his most recent performance being a 385-yard day vs. a Ravens Defense that was previously allowing just 232 passing yards per game. In his previous three games against the Patriots, Mahomes has averaged 310 passing yards per game. He will want to make another statement in this game and we should look for him to put up more than the total.
Cam Newton is going to have to perform as he did against the Seahawks when he threw for 397 yards, and I think he will. While the Chiefs are only allowing 220 passing yards per game, they have gone up against Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson in their previous two games, which are not known as the most prolific passers. In Week 1, they allowed Deshaun Watson to throw for over 250 passing yards and I would expect a similar performance from Newton here. The Patriots are seven-point underdogs in this game, which is a rare occurrence and should lead to some extra passing, especially considering they do not have an established runner outside of Newton himself and possibly Sony Michel.
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