RADIO
Eli Grabanski analyzes impressive offensive performances from Week 3 of the 2020 NFL season to find teams that will decline or regress at RB, WR, and TE for fantasy football purposes based on playcalling tendencies and historical data.
This series continues into its third week of where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on coaching in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value. After much research, I've developed a broad knowledge of how each team's play-caller historically operates and compiled data to help make informed decisions throughout the regular season as well.
After a wild Week 3 where we saw performances such as the Dallas Cowboys wide receivers catching 26 passes on 36 targets for 405 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns against the Seattle secondary or the New York Giants running backs taking only ten carries for 17 rushing yards, it's important to look at their play-caller's history and see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.
This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. Let's dive in!
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Regression
Chicago Bears Tight Ends (Matt Nagy)
Last week versus the Atlanta Falcons, the Bears tight ends caught nine passes on 13 targets for 75 receiving yards and two touchdowns. This means that through the first three games, the Bears tight ends have 14 receptions on 25 targets for 130 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns, and as a group, they are averaging 4.67 receptions on 8.33 targets for 43.33 receiving yards and a touchdown per game.
Meanwhile, Bears head coach Matt Nagy has had a solid TE room but definitely not that level of efficiency. Over the 48 games he was an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to the 2020 NFL season, his TE room averaged 6.69 targets, 49.06 receiving yards, and 0.35 receiving touchdowns per game. There is a decline coming for the Bears tight ends, in particular with receiving touchdowns.
Fantasy players this impacts: Jimmy Graham, Demetrius Harris, and Cole Kmet
Pittsburgh Steelers Running Backs (Randy Fichtner)
The Steelers running backs took 32 carries for 163 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown. In addition, they had five receptions on seven targets for 47 receiving yards (and zero receiving touchdowns). On the year this group has combined for 77 carries, 398 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, 12 receptions (on 18 targets), 71 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. On a per-game basis, this is 25.67 carries, 132.67 rushing yards, 0.67 rushing touchdowns, four receptions (on six targets), 23.67 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns per game.
Now compare this to what offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner has historically gotten out of his running back room. In the 32 games as an offensive coordinator prior, Fichtner had the Steelers running backs combining to average 20.13 carries, 81.09 rushing yards, 0.63 rushing touchdowns, 6.59 targets, 42.19 receiving yards, and 0.25 receiving touchdowns per game.
What this means is there is likely to be a dip in how much work these running backs get in the running game and it will result in fewer rushing yards than what the Steelers backs are currently getting.
Fantasy players this impacts: James Conner, Benny Snell Jr., and Anthony McFarland Jr.
Los Angeles Chargers Wide Receivers (Anthony Lynn)
The Chargers wide receivers combined for 17 receptions on 27 targets for 187 receiving yards and a touchdown last Sunday against the Carolina Panthers. On the year they are averaging 12 receptions (20.33 targets), 144.33 receiving yards, and 0.67 receiving touchdowns per game.
Looking at how much production Anthony Lynn's offense has gotten out of the position prior to this season, we should expect worse numbers than they put up against the Panthers. In the 62 games Anthony Lynn coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to the 2020 NFL season, his wide receiver room averaged 18.35 targets, 156.66 receiving yards, and 0.85 receiving touchdowns per game.
Overall, the season numbers look in line with what we'd expect in an Anthony Lynn offense. Just don't expect Sunday's performance to be the new norm.
Fantasy players this impacts: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Jalen Guyton
Seattle Seahawks Wide Receivers (Brian Schottenheimer)
The Seattles Seahawks wide receivers had 15 receptions on 23 targets for 225 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns. On the year, they are averaging 15.33 receptions, 20.33 targets, 228.33 receiving yards, and three receiving touchdowns per game.
Seattle Seahawks offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer had coached 176 games as an offensive coordinator prior to the 2020 NFL season. Over the course of these 176 games, his wide receiver room has averaged 18.31 targets, 140.48 receiving yards, 0.94 receiving touchdowns.
While Russell Wilson's MVP campaign is going to make these numbers higher than a typical year in Brian Schottenheimer's offense, there is regression incoming for this group.
Fantasy players this impacts: D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and David Moore
Green Bay Packers Tight Ends (Matt LaFleur)
Last Sunday, the Green Bay Packers tight ends had nine receptions on 10 targets for 104 receiving yards and two touchdowns. On the year they are averaging 4.33 receptions (on six targets) for 48.33 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown per game.
Head coach Matt LaFleur has been an offensive coordinator or head coach for 48 games (three seasons) prior to the start of the 2020 NFL season. In this time, he had his tight end room average 5.65 targets, 44.06 receiving yards, and 0.31 receiving touchdowns.
The performance last week was an outlier from LaFleur's previous production, with the team utilizing the position more with star wide receiver Davante Adams out. Going forward, expect a slight decline at the position, in particular with regards to receiving touchdowns.
Fantasy players this impacts: Robert Tonyan, Marcedes Lewis, and Jace Sternberger
Browns Running Backs - Touchdowns (Kevin Stefanski)
The Browns running backs took 35 carries for 154 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns in week 3. In addition, they also combined two receptions on four targets for 20 yards and a touchdown. This means that on the season, the Browns running back room is averaging 30.33 carries, 167 rushing yards, 1.67 rushing touchdowns, 3.67 receptions (4.67 targets), 19.67 receiving yards, and 0.67 receiving touchdowns per game.
Now compare this to Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski's previous production at the position. In the 19 games Stefanski coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season, his running back room averaged 26 carries, 123.21 rushing yards, 1.05 rushing touchdowns, 5.89 targets, 41.84 receiving yards, and 0.05 receiving touchdowns per game.
So what should we expect in the future? Surprisingly, the relative workload and yards seem sustainable so far this season based on Stefanski's previous reputation as one of the most effective coaches in the NFL at providing work for his running backs. But if there's one thing that seems unsustainable, it's the fact that the Browns runnings backs are averaging 2.33 total touchdowns per game right now. Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb will continue to be one of the most dangerous running back duos in recent history, but they are running on the high side of what we should expect over the course of the season.
Fantasy players this impacts: Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb
Cowboys Wide Receivers - Receiving Yards (Mike McCarthy & Kellen Moore)
The Dallas Cowboys wide receivers caught 26 passes on 36 targets for 4o5 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns against the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. On the year they are averaging 20 receptions on 29 targets for 295.67 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown per game (3 games).
The receiving yards per game are clearly in for regression. Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore directed one of the best offenses in the league last year where Dak Prescott threw for 4902 passings yards and his WR room 'only' averaged 217.19 receiving yards per game. In addition, considering Mike McCarthy topped out at 229.19 receiving yards per game back in 2011 for the Green Bay Packers, it seems highly likely regression is in place.
Expect the Cowboys wide receivers to perform well all year as they have two the best coaches in the NFL at getting production out of their wide receiver rooms. Just do not expect the current level of production.
Fantasy players this impacts: Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and CeeDee Lamb
