MLB Betting Picks (9/3/2020) - Moneylines, Totals, and Runlines

September 3, 2020

Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the MLB slate on 9/3/2020. He breaks down each team's situation and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, runlines, and more!

Tuesday was a bad day and my plays weren't even close. It's one of those days where you just shake your head and move forward. I took Wednesday off to recuperate my brain and am ready for this Thursday slate to take us into the weekend.

• Tuesday, Aug. 31: 0-2 (-2 units)
• 2020 Season Total: 17-22-2 (-7.16 units)

I feel obligated to remind you I'm not a professional and that each play is going to be "bet to lose" one unit. For those of you that followed my KBO run, there is a large amount of luck involved in this but this is all supposed to be fun so please only do this if you enjoy it.

Our betting team has been busy bringing you daily analysis, recommendations, and predictions for this wild 2020 MLB season. I'm pleased to bring you my insight for the MLB slate on Thursday, September 3rd. My analysis will be a little shorter than normal today due to time constraints. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or just chat in general about baseball. Good luck and play smart!

Toronto Blue Jays (-122) at Boston Red Sox

O/U: 10.5

TOR: Taijuan Walker, BOS: Martin Perez

Walker was solid in his first start as a Blue Jay, scattering just four hits and striking out four but he also walked three in six innings. The 28-year-old has always had impressive stuff but his 4.63 FIP says that the 3.27 ERA is due for some regression. On the other side, Perez has actually been a solid arm through seven starts for the Sox. He's given up more than three runs just twice, but his recent performance is worrisome. In his last four outings, he's allowed 12 runs and five homers with a 13/6 K/BB. His stuff isn't overpowering or really that impressive.

Boston has just average against righties of late, holding down a .764 OPS and a .180 ISO since Aug. 17. Alex Verdugo, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers have been three key cogs for Boston, and they'll have to step up even more now that Mitch Moreland Kevin Pillar got shipped off at the trade deadline. On the other side, the Blue Jays have struggled on the road, averaging under four runs per game as visitors. However, in the last two weeks, Toronto have had enough success against LHP on the road that I have confidence they can get to Perez. They've combined for an .832 OPS, .253 ISO, and a 123 wRC+ against southpaws in that stretch.

Neither pitcher wows me at all and while both offenses have had their struggles, they still have plenty of firepower able to put runs up.

Pick: Over 10.5 (-107, Draftkings) 1 Unit

Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies (-182)

O/U: 10.5

WSH: Anibal Sanchez, PHI: Zach Eflin

Eflin has been a pleasant surprise for Philly, despite the 4.10 ERA. His 2.73 FIP is more indicative of how he's been throwing. The 26-year-old has struck out eight or more in three of his five starts and he's allowed just three homers in 26.1 innings. Also, he still ranks in the 80th percentile or higher in xERA, xSLG, xWOBA, and K%. His mound opponent, Anibal Sanchez, has given up at least three runs in five of his six starts, and while he has a 9/0 K/BB in his last two starts, he's also given up three homers in that stretch and eight overall this season.

Offensively, the Nationals have been disgraceful this series, tallying just eight hits and no runs, and have now lost eight of their last nine. Since August 24, they have a .788 OPS as a team against RHP, but they just seem absolutely stymied right now. For the Phils, thy've been the exact opposite of Washington, winning eight of their last nine, including outscoring the Nats 9-0 through this series' first two games. They're carrying an .845 OPS, .233 ISO, and 117 wRC+ against RHP at home since August 24.

I was very wrong siding with Washington on Monday and they let me know it. Eflin has been quite underrated this year and the underlying metrics back that up. His offense has a positive matchup which should hopefully give him plenty of early run support to save any bullpen blunders.

Pick: Philadelphia -1.5 (+112, Draftkings) 1 Unit

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