MLB Betting Picks (8/18/2020) - Moneylines, Totals, and Runlines

August 18, 2020

Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the MLB slate on 8/18/2020. He breaks down each team's situation and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, runlines, and more!

I'm back for another week of MLB slates. We continue to have COVID looming over the league, but so far-so good (fingers crossed). Personally, I've been having a tough time getting a grip on lines around the league and have been on a bit of a rough patch. I continue to read and research and hopefully I can pull out of it sooner rather than later!

• Friday, Aug 14th: 0-1 (-1 units)
• 2020 Season Total: 10-15-2 (-5.67 units)

I feel obligated to remind you I'm not a professional and that each play is going to be "bet to lose" one unit. For those of you that followed my KBO run, there is a large amount of luck involved in this but this is all supposed to be fun so please only do this if you enjoy it. We finally have sports back and it's been a blast finally being able to research team trends.

Our betting team has been busy bringing you daily analysis, recommendations, and predictions for this wild 2020 MLB season. I'm pleased to bring you my insight for the MLB slate on Tuesday, August 18th. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or just chat in general about baseball. Good luck and play smart!

Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves (-124)

O/U: 10

WSH: Austin Voth, ATL: Josh Tomlin

Voth hasn't been as good as his 3.21 ERA would suggest. His 6.42 FIP is a little more like it; he's allowed five home runs in the 14 innings he's pitched with just a 9/3 K/BB. At 28, he's just not effective when he needs to be. The Nats' lineup has been as good as advertised, but they might not be as heavy hitting as you'd expect. Against RHP on the road, they're hitting .294 but have just seven homers with a .170 ISO.

Tomlin is set to make his first start of 2020 and so far in eight relief appearances, he's been great with a 1.59 ERA. He's striking out more batters than ever with a 38 K% and his .182 xBA shows that he's truly confusing hitters at the plate. It will be interesting seeing the 35-year-old adjust back to starting the game instead of coming out of the pen. Atlanta's lineup has struggled with Ronald Acuna Jr. on the IL, averaging just under three runs over the L3. Since Aug. 10, they're hitting .265 with a .347 BABIP against RHP, but a guy like Voth is someone they can target with his heavy fastball usage.

Atlanta started the series off with a bang on Monday, scoring four in the ninth to walk-off 7-6.  Now they'll look to Tomlin to prove that he can still has it in him to start ball games. Sure, Atlanta's offense is a bit down, but if they can pull from Monday night's momentum, getting to Voth is certainly in the realm of possibilities.

Pick: Atlanta ML (-124, Draftkings) 1 Unit

Philadelphia Phillies (-112) at Boston Red Sox 

O/U: 11

PHI: Zach Eflin, BOS: Zack Godley

Eflin has been solid through his first two starts (10IP) and his metrics say this is only the beginning. Ranking in the 85th percentile or higher in every major pitching metric on Statcast. He did allow two blasts to the Orioles in his last time out, but he aso struck out 10 and walked just one in six frames. The Phillies offense has been surging a bit, slashing .281/.324/.491 since Aug. 10 and averaging 6.9 runs per game, which was boosted by a weekend sweep of the Mets. J.T. Realmuto is tearing the cover off the ball, while Bryce Harper and Didi Gregorius are doing their best to keep the lineup steady.

Godley has been just awful through his first 14.1 innings, carrying an 8.16 ERA and .391 BABIP, while also allowing five home runs. However, all 13 runs allowed come from two outings, his second and then his most recent where he allowed eight runs in three innings. He has a .565 xSLG and his Barrel rate is just a hair under 10, so opponents are locked in when he's throwing. The Red Sox are hitting just .243 against RHP in August, but have been better in the last week, hitting .305 since Aug. 10, but there's not a ton of power behind it with just a .172 ISO.

Boston is a bit down in the dumps right now as their pitching staff is at the bottom of the barrel. Their bullpen had to cover five innings in a loss on Monday, and then they come into a new series with another pitching disadvantage. Look for Eflin to challenge Boston, while the Phillies have the fire power to put a lot of pressure on a mightily struggling Godley.

Pick: Philadelphia ML (-112, Fanduel) 1 Unit

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