MLB Betting Picks (7/31/2020) - Moneylines, Totals, and Runlines

July 31, 2020

Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the MLB slate on 7/31/2020. He breaks down each team's situation and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, runlines, and more!

While the Cincy/Chicago game got rained out, Shane Bieber ran roughshod through the Twins lineup. While he's a great arm, I wasn't expecting this dominance against such a stout offense. Nonetheless, you tip your cap and move on to the next day.

• Thursday, July 30: 0-1 (-1 units)
• 2020 Season Total: 4-3-2 (+0.59 units)

We move onto another day and another slate of games in a season clouded by a pandemic that makes everything questionable. I feel obligated to remind you I'm not a professional. For those of you that followed my KBO run, there is a large amount of luck involved in this but my goal is to evaluate the slate and find the right value to make some money.

Myself along with Tommy Bell will be supplying you with analysis, recommendations, picks, and other fun information all season long, and hopefully some money to be made as well! I'll be writing up my picks on Tuesday-Friday, and Tom will take care of the rest of the week. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or just chat in general about baseball. Good luck and play smart!

New York Mets at Atlanta Braves

O/U: 10

NYM: Rick Porcello, ATL: Sean Newcomb

The Mets hit .278 with a .338 wOBA against lefties in 2019. Pete Alonso, J.D. Davis, and Yoenis Cespedes are the big righties in the lineup, but a lefty like Jeff McNeil still hit .312 against southpaws in 2019. They were held to just two runs Thursday, but scored 13 with 25 hits in the two games prior. This lineup is underrated and has the pieces to make a run. Their mound opponent, Sean Newcomb, is in a weird spot for 2020. After being in the rotation full-time in 2018, he was a reliever in 2019 (a good one at that), but now he's back in the rotation.

The 27-year-old isn't a Cy Young candidate but he's had his moments. However, he's not at his best at home. Over 182.1 innings on his own mound, he has a 4.24 ERA while allowing a .250/.334/.400 slash line. I might sprinkle some on the Mets moneyline here, but this offense has been much better than they showed Thursday and I see them getting to Newcomb.

Pick: Mets Team Total Over 4.5 (-104, Draftkings) 1 Unit

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees (-235)

O/U: 10.5

BOS: Ryan Weber, NYY: Jordan Montgomery

The Red Sox obviously lost a big piece of their roster when Mookie Betts was traded to the Dodgers this offseason. But retaining Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, and J.D. Martinez is ignore. The Sox have averaged 5.1 runs per game so far, and that's with Andrew Benintendi and Bogaerts struggling, to say the least. Weber flat out isn't good as a starter, holding down a sub-8 ERA in just three starts last year, and started off this year getting shelled for six runs by the lowly Orioles.

The Yankees are obviously one of the most devastating lineups a team can face. They hit .265 with a league-leading 220 home runs against righties in 2019. While a grand salami saved them on Friday, this is the arguably the best lineup in baseball. They'll be backing up Jordan Montgomery Friday who finished his 2019 campaign recovering from Tommy John. His 3.45 ERA at Yankee stadium is pretty solid, but Boston carried the best average against lefties last season.

Sure, Boston doesn't have thier MVP candidate but they still carry some of the best at their respective positions and I shouldn't have to tell you about New York's lineup. Neither pitcher is anything to write home about so I look for the bats to take precedent.

Pick: Over 10.5 (-112, Fanduel) 1 Unit

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