The COVID Conundrum - To Drop or Not to Drop?

July 18, 2020

Reuven the Injury Guru outlines his fantasy baseball strategy for 2020 based on the fluid COVID-19 situation along with a running, updated list of players affected by Coronavirus, either on the Injured List (IL) or opted-out.

So….real, actual baseball games are almost upon us. Opening Day is July 23rd. And yet, we are still in the midst of a pandemic. At the time of my writing this, by my calculations, at least 90 players have had COVID-19 or have gone through the COVID Protocol due to players being traced back to a positive party. This represents about 5% of the current 1800 players in the player pool- (60 players, 30 teams).

There also have been 14 players opting out of the season entirely to this point for various reasons related to the pandemic. Overall, to this point, around 5.8% of the entire MLB player pool has been affected. MLB teams are not supposed to disclose who had the virus and who hasn’t but when a player is put on IL for an unknown injury, specifically someone put on the COVID IL, it becomes obvious.

As fantasy players, we need to be aware of how to navigate this new “injury” and proceed accordingly.

A New Kind of Injury

Last year, 49.7% of pitchers (at least 10 innings pitched) landed on the IL while 52.4% of hitters (at least 70 abs) were on the IL at one point. If we add this new, additional, “injury” to the mix, I expect there to be a higher percentage of players on the IL this year when compared to last year. The injuries of prior years (shoulder, knee, elbow, wrist etc…) are basically “knowns”. We know how long it takes for a player to come back from Tommy John surgery or a wrist fracture. We know how long it takes for a back or oblique issue to resolve, more or less. COVID-19 is called a novel virus because it is just that. It is brand new and we are learning about it all the time. It has only been around since last year (that’s what the 19 represents in its name).

The medical profession has a basic idea of how long someone is infectious with it and how long it usually takes for someone to show symptoms. With the current protocols in place, MLB and the MLBPA will try to prevent a league-wide outbreak and at the same time have the league function as “normal.” Dr. Gary Green, the medical director of MLB has put out certain guidelines that have to be followed.

Current Guidelines

MLB players will be tested every other day. This is done with the hope to be able to prevent, as best as possible, an outbreak. Players will have their temperature checked multiple times a day and a player with a temperature of 100.4 or higher will be sent home and quarantined. Basically, once quarantined (which could be anywhere from 7-14 days or more), if the player tests positive, he must be symptom-free for 5-7 days and have two negative COVID tests before he will be cleared to return by the MLB and MLBPA joint committee. If the player is COVID positive and symptom-free, he must quarantine at least 5-7 days and have 2 negative COVID tests in order to return. Each team will have its own “COVID-19 Action Plan.” This means that each team’s protocol may vary (from state to state), but in the end, this joint committee must give the go-ahead to return.

How to plan what to do with a player who is in the COVID protocol and also on your fantasy roster is the question of the hour. Any person who is symptom-free and fever-free (without using medication to lower the fever) is not considered “catchy” after 5-7 days. So, if a player went into quarantine August 1st, stopped having symptoms August 5th, they must wait at least an additional 5-7 days (sometimes longer- again, varies by state) so as to avoid a possible spreading of the virus- so the earliest possible return is August 12-19. But it is not even that simple.

Fabian Ardaya, who is an Angels beat writer for The Athletic, reported the following story on Twitter regarding Angels 1st baseman Matt Thaiss. “Matt Thaiss said he was exposed to someone who tested positive for COVID-19 when he was working out and tested positive in early June. It took him until Sunday [August 12th] to get two negative tests. He was asymptomatic and isolated for 28 to 29 days... Thaiss said he took 10 to 11 saliva tests, and a couple of nasal tests (“which were pretty uncomfortable”) before he finally tested negative twice for COVID-19...” This story alone shows that it is a lot more complicated than just being symptom-free.

Making a Plan for Fantasy Purposes

So what’s the plan? To drop or not to drop? Let’s base the answer on some of this knowledge we now have. Of the players that have gone through the protocol, 11 players have returned so far with others being able to return soon. The earlier in the season a player is taken out of circulation, the better chance of a return during the course of the season. Asymptomatic players will also return sooner. Length of illness can differ, which is the big X-factor. But given the fact that a quarantine stay can last ~7-14 days or more (with negative testing), we can say that a player could miss at least 7-14/60 games, or 11-23% of the season. Knowing this, fantasy players could begin to manage their rosters, and their IL spots if they have them, with more confidence.

In an NFBC-style league, every roster spot is of such importance. So, if a player goes into the protocol with two weeks left in the season, I do not see a reason why they should be kept on their roster. If a player goes into the protocol September 1, there is a chance for them to return and there is a risk/reward of dropping a player only to have to pick them up again.

Oh, but there is a snag I didn’t mention. Hitters should be able to get back in the lineup pretty quickly upon return. But pitchers, especially starting pitchers, may have to work up their stamina and innings before a full return. So there is a possibility that if a starting pitcher goes into the COVID protocol, he may come out of it, for the rest of the season, as a middle reliever or a long man, and not as a starter.

Player safety is paramount in all of this. They are humans just like we are and they all have families to consider. There will be players, during the course of the season, that may decide not to come back. We can not hold it against them because we may do the same thing if we were in their place. MLB and its players will hopefully get through an entire season without major issues. That, in itself, should be considered a win.

List of Fantasy-Relevant Players Affected by COVID-19 Protocol

Alvarez, Yordan (DH, HOU)
Astudillo, Willians (C, MIN)
Beer, Seth (1B, ARI) - Returned
Bethancourt, Christian (C, PHI)
Blackmon, Charlie (OF, COL) - Returned
Brito, Socrates (OF, PIT)
Brinson, Lewis (OF, MIA)
Cabrera, Genesis (RP, STL)
Calhoun, Kole (OF, ARI) - Returned
Cano, Robinson (1B/2B, NYM) - Returned
Cessa, Luis (RP, NYY)
DeShields, Delino (OF, CLE)
Dietrich, Derek (1B/OF, CIN)
Drury, Brandon (3B, TOR)
Elias, Roenis (RP, SEA)
Freeman, Freddie (1B, ATL) - Returned
Garica, Jarlin (RP, SF)
Glasnow, Tyler (SP, TB) - Returned
Grichuk, Randal (OF, TOR)
Guerra, Junior (RP, ARI) - Returned
Hamilton, Billy (OF, SF)
Haseley, Adam (OF, PHI) - Returned
Hayes, Ke'Bryan (3B, PIT)
Hernandez, Darwinzon (RP, BOS) - Returned
Hirano, Yoshii (RP, SEA)
Hunter, Tommy (RP, PHI)
Jansen, Kenley (RP, LAD) - Returned
Joyce, Matt (OF, MIA)
Kela, Keone (RP, PIT)
Keller, Brad (SP, KC)
Kendrick, Howie (1B/2B/3B/OF, WAS) - Returned
Kingery, Scott (2B/3B/SS/OF, PHI) - Returned
Lauer, Eric (SP, MIL)
LeMahieu, DJ (1B/2B, NYY) - Returned
Luzardo, Jesus (SP, OAK) - Returned
Mahtook, Mikie (OF, DET)
Mateo, Jorge (SS, SD)
Meadows, Austin (OF, TB)
Moncada, Yoan (3B, CHW) - Returned
Neris, Hector (RP, PHI)- Returned
Nola, Aaron (SP, PHI) - Returned
Norris, Daniel (SP, DET)
O'Hearn, Ryan (1B, KC)
Perez, Salvador (C, KC)
Pham, Tommy (OF, SD) - Returned
Robles, Victor (OF, WAS)
Sano, Miguel (1B/3B, MIN) - Returned
Smith, Will (RP, ATL)
Soto, Juan (OF, WAS) - Returned
Suero, Wander (RP, WAS)
Teheran, Julio (SP, LAA)
Toussaint, Touki (SP/RP, ATL)
Urias, Luis (2B/SS, MIL)
Urquidy, Jose (SP, HOU)

Players Opting Out of the 2020 Season

Castillo, Wellington (C, WAS)
Desmond, Ian (1B/OF, COL)
Hernandez, Felix (SP, ATL)
Hicks, Jordan (RP, STL)
Koepech, Michael (SP, CHW)
Leake, Mike (SP, ARI)
Markakis, Nick (OF, ATL)
Noesi, Hector (RP, PIT)
Posey, Buster (C, SF)
Price, David (SP, LAD)
Ross, Joe (SP, WAS)
Ross, Tyson (SP, FA)
Smith, Joe (RP, HOU)
Zimmerman, Ryan (1B, WAS)

Follow my work here on RotoBaller and follow me on Twitter for regular updates on this ever-changing situation.

Reuven Guy, RPA-C
Twitter: @mlbinjuryguru

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