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Kyle Ringstad’s KBO DFS picks for 7/16/2020. He breaks down the KBO slate for FanDuel and DraftKings and offers his favorite pitchers, hitters, and value plays for DFS contests.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! These last few months without our usual professional sports have been rough, but we can take solace in the fact that DFS contests haven't stopped and KBO has provided us with some exciting content in what has become an unusually empty summer to this point (sincere apologies to UFC and PGA).
My general strategy is to keep an eye on the betting lines found at Bovada and identify potential starting pitchers and hitter stacks to target from there (combined with a little statistical analysis, of course). If you have the ability to stay up until an hour before lock, do yourself a huge favor and check out RotoWire's daily lineups to make sure you're playing guys who are actually starting. Lastly, keep an eye on MyKBOStats.com for updated weather projections.
Reminder: the FanDuel and DraftKings slates lock at 5:30 (ET) on Thursday, July 16, 2020. Follow me @kringstad19 (and my fellow KBO analysts @ehatch1990DFS or @MarkStrausberg.)
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KBO DFS Pitchers
Pricing is all sorts of mixed up when it comes to the 7/16 starting pitchers, mostly on FanDuel's side. Kiwoom's Sung-Hyun Moon, making his second start and facing NC, is the cheapest option on DraftKings and the second-most expensive on FanDuel. Chris Flexen, facing SK, is the third-most expensive SP on DraftKings yet he comes in as the cheapest pitcher on FanDuel. None of it makes much sense, other than Drew Rucinski being the most expensive on both sites - they got that one right.
Note: Rucinski is the top pitcher on the slate, but Flexen, Jeong, and Cuevas all have far easier matchups. Roll with Rucinski against Kiwoom if you'd like, but you'll need to get creative with value bats if you do so.
Chris Flexen - DOO Starting P ($20 Fanduel, $8900 DraftKings)
Another slate, another easy FanDuel lock on a starting pitcher that is egregiously mispriced. He has a 4-3 record and a tidy 3.86 ERA, 3.38 FIP (leads the slate), and a 21.5% K%. Best of all, he's facing the SK Wyverns, a team that is averaging just 3.82 runs per game and 0.85 home runs per game in 2020. They're just not an imposing offensive team. Flexen went six innings against SK on 6/23, allowing only two earned runs and recording eight strikeouts. The Bears are currently favored by 1.5 runs at home.
Chan-Heon Jeong - LG Starting P ($25 FanDuel, $8300 DraftKings)
Jeong looks really impressive on paper and comes into this game on a serious roll. He's 4-0 in his last five starts, allowing just 1.4 earned runs per game and averaging seven strikeouts per game in that span. It should be noted that those starts came against bottom-tier offenses, but tonight's matchup falls right into that same boat. The Lotte Giants aren't a team we should shy away from, and Jeong's 2.62 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 23.7% K% (leads the slate), 5.7% BB% (leads the slate), and 1.07 WHIP (leads the slate) all point to continued success on 7/16. The LG Twins are currently favored to win by 1.5 runs on the road.
William Cuevas - KT Starting P ($24 FanDuel, $7900 DraftKings)
There's not much to say here, other than the fact that we have an about-league-average starting pitcher who's facing off against Hanwha's exploitable offense. Cuevas is 4-2 with a 4.67 ERA, and his 17.8% strikeout rate is good enough to put him in consideration as an SP2 on DraftKings. He gave up two earned runs and notched four strikeouts against the Eagles on 6/27, and he gave up four earned runs and recorded seven strikeouts against them back on 5/19. Expect production similar to those two outings tonight.
*Longshot GPP Play(s)*
Min-Woo Kim - HAN Starting P ($23 FanDuel, $7300 DraftKings)
I'd caution against starting Kim in anything other than a GPP tournament, but he's worth a look as a dart-throw against KT. Kim is 2-5 in 2020, but that's more a product of being a member of the Eagles than it is a discredit to his skill set. He has a decent 4.37 ERA, but it's his slate-leading 23% K% that we're targeting. KT has four regular starters (Kyung-Su Park, Jung-Dae Bae, Mel Rojas Jr., Woo-Jun Shim) who strikeout at a clip of 20% or higher. You're likely not going to get the win bonus here, so if you take Kim you're hoping for at least five strikeouts and a quality start.
KBO Top Hitter Stacks
Ideally, you'd like to target offenses in the highest run total games who are facing pitchers (and bullpens) that are likely to give up a crooked number. A players counting stats, .ISO (isolated slugging percentage), and production against the handedness of the opposing pitcher are all keys to selecting the correct hitters. LG again looks like they're in a sneaky-elite spot, KIA and Doosan are very intriguing, and a few potentially overlooked stacks in NC and Samsung are in play as well.
LG Twins
LG was the sneaky stack that put up the most runs on last night's slate, and they're in a great spot again here. They're facing Lotte's Won-Sam Jang, who is making his fourth start this year and holds a 7.20 ERA, 6.44 FIP, 1.8 HR/9, 5.9% K%, .313 batting average against, and a 1.60 WHIP.
Roberto Ramos ($17, $5000) - Ramos ranks second in the KBO in homers (16), fourth in OPS (1.005) and ISO (.286), and 17th in average (.321). The Twins aren't the best-hitting team overall, but Ramos is certainly one of the best hitters in the league. Fading him against LHP is generally a good idea, but Jang may not last too long in this one.
Hyun-Soo Kim ($15, $4800) - Kim holds a superb .326/.369/.541 slash line with 10 homers, 47 RBI, and 41 runs scored. He's also second in the KBO with 20 doubles in 2020.
Ji-Hwan Oh ($9, $3700) - Oh contributes everywhere as he has five homers, 12 doubles, two triples, 31 runs scored, 25 RBI, and 10 stolen bases for the season
Eun-Seong Chae ($13, $3200) - Chae, like Oh, contributes in multiple areas but doesn't provide the stolen base upside. Chae is a secondary target on LG tonight.
KIA Tigers
It should be noted that KIA ranks dead last in runs per game and homers per game on the road, but the counterpoint is that they're facing Samsung's Yun Dong Heo at the top park for offensive production. Heo is making his seventh start and holds a 4.50 ERA, 6.15 FIP, 10.7% strikeout rate, 14.1% walk rate, and a 1.73 WHIP. That ERA has been due to come tumbling down for a while now with underlying statistics like that.
Preston Tucker ($16, $6100) - Tucker is the undisputed team leader with a .320/.404/.607 slash line and 15 homers, 51 RBI, and 41 runs scored in 2020. He has four home runs in July so far.
Hyung-Woo Choi ($13, $5200) - Choi has a .314/.418/.510 slash line and has nine homers, 36 RBI, and 37 runs scored this year.
Ji-Wan Na ($9, $4000) - Ji-Wan Na holds the third-highest ISO among KIA regulars at .184 and he has nine home runs for the season.
Joo-Hwan Na ($5, $2500) - Joo-Hwan Na has six homers on the year to go along with his .181 ISO. Not bad for a minimum-salaried hitter in a great matchup.
Ming-Sang Yoo ($7, $3300) - Yoo doesn't hit for much power, but he holds a .309 batting average and has contributed 29 RBI in 2020 in just 139 at-bats.
Doosan Bears
Daaaaaa Bears have a blow-up spot on deck here against SK's Seung-Geon Baek. They are not a solid-hitting team at home, and they rank last in home runs hit per game at their park, but Baek is so inexperienced and terrible that it shouldn't matter. He has been awful through three appearances (one start), and he just gave up two solo homers over 2 and 1/3 innings in his last appearance on 6/28 against Doosan. He has allowed four long balls in just nine total innings. Even if when he is chased early, SK's bullpen isn't anything to worry about with a lineup this good.
Kyoung-Min Hur ($10, $4700) - Hur is riding an impressive 12-game hitting streak, and he's had multiple hits in seven of those games. He contributes in the runs scored and RBI department, and he's still cheap. Keep riding him.
Kun-Woo Park ($14, $5000) - Kun-Woo Park is on his own nine-game hitting streak, but he hits for more power (14 doubles and five homers) and scores more runs (47) than Hur, hence the price-jump. He also hits leadoff and if the Bears are going to put up a big number on SK, you can bet Park will have an impact.
Jose Miguel Fernandez ($17, $6000) - Doosan's leader in batting average, runs scored, and doubles, Fernandez has hit four homers in July and could be due for another one tonight.
Jae-Il Oh ($15, $4800) - Jae-Il Oh leads the team's regulars with a .209 ISO, thanks to his seven home runs and 15 doubles. He gets on base a lot as well and has amazing lineup protection with Fernandez in front of him and Jae-Hwan Kim behind him in the order.
Jae-Hwan Kim ($17, $5700) - Jae-Hwan Kim has slid to fifth on the team with a .184 ISO, but he's still the team leader with 11 homers, 52 RBI, and 40 walks. He hasn't hit a bomb since 6/27, so he's definitely due for one.
Joo-Hwan Choi ($13, $4300) - Choi has a 15-game hitting streak on the line, and his price refuses to budge. He hasn't hit a home run since 6/18 and he's still third on the team with eight.
Other stacks/hitters to consider:
- NC and Samsung are in great spots and can be stacked, but prioritizing LG, KIA, and Doosan seems to be the way to go initially.
- NC will square off with Kiwoom's Sung-Hyun Moon, but it will be a bullpen game and their relievers are taxed. This could easily be a blow-up spot for the Dinos, so take a look at the usual suspects of Aaron Altherr ($15, $5600), Sung-Bum Na ($18, $5900), Min-Woo Park ($12, $5300), and Eui-Ji Yang ($13, $5500). Don't forget about Jin-Sung Kang ($15, $4300) just because he hits at the bottom of the order.
- Samsung's up against KIA's Hyun-Jong Yang, who has been very unimpressive through 12 starts in 2020. The Lions' top targets are Tyler Saladino ($13, $4400), Sang-Su Kim ($8, $4200), Won-Seok Lee ($8, $3300), Sung-Gyu Lee ($9, $3000), and Min-Ho Kang ($7, $3400)
Good luck with your KBO DFS lineups tonight and thanks for checking out my KBO DFS lineup picks here at RotoBaller!
