Historically Fast Starters to Target

July 20, 2020

Todd Salem finds hitters who have historically gotten off to fast starts over their careers. These are players to target in fantasy with an unprecedented 60-game season upcoming.

The 2020 fantasy baseball season will be unlike any that has existed before. A 60-game sprint to the finish will offer all kinds of unexpected twists and turns. One consequence that seems obvious, though, is that players will not have a chance to round into shape. Guys will need to be on top of their game right from the jump or risk putting together a bad campaign. There is no month to get going this season. A month is half the year.

Historically fast starters could offer fantasy owners a leg up on the competition. These guys, who normally start off hot, can buoy a fantasy lineup for most of the season. And with the shortened slate, there may not even be time enough for them to ever cool down. Historically fast starters are the guys to target in the 60-game season.

One additional note: a lot of MVP-caliber players are historically good in the first halves of seasons. Many are also good in the second halves! It's why they are MVP-caliber players in normal seasons. Guys like Mike Trout, Nolan Arenado, and J.D. Martinez have first-half OPS figures above .900 for the past half dozen years. They also have career OPS numbers around or (in Trout's case) well above that mark. They should be targeted in any season, shortened or otherwise.

Eric Thames (1B/OF, Washington Nationals)

The 2020 season may shine on Thames in a number of ways. First off is the designated hitter rule that opened up the door for Thames to receive much more playing time in Washington. Then, Ryan Zimmerman opted out of the season, removing Thames' main competition at first base. Now, with Howie Kendrick possibly not ready for the start of the season, Thames could be in the lineup nearly every day for the Nationals.

On top of the playing time fortune, the 60-game sprint could favor Thames. He has heavy career splits in favor of the first halves of seasons. March/April are by far the best months of his career. That has pushed him to a career .863 OPS in the first half, compared to a .743 mark in the second half. His tOPS+ indicates Thames is 15 percent better than expected in the first half and 16 percent worse than expected in the second half.

Brett Gardner (OF, New York Yankees)

2019 was different for Gardner in so many ways. One of the more hidden reasons for his success was that he didn't crater in the second half of the season. On the contrary, Gardner's career year got even better in the later months, specifically slugging .549 after the break. That is abnormal for him though. For his career, Gardner has heavy splits favoring the first half of seasons.

His drop-off is not quite as dramatic as Thames' but comes pretty close. Gardner performs eight percent better than expected before the All-Star break and 11 percent worse after. His 2019 reversal shouldn't scare anyone away for this season, though. It's never bad when someone becomes a better hitter. Even more than that, his first half last year was still solid. He had a .798 OPS with 15 home runs and then took off.

Jean Segura (SS, Philadelphia Phillies)

In March, April, and May, Segura is one of the premier hitters in baseball. His batting average in those months is well over .300. He gets on base and even shows a little pop, eclipsing an .800 OPS in each month. After May? Segura is no longer a premier hitter. In fact, he is no longer good.

He continues to run, but steals become his lone useful category in standard 5x5 scoring other than not killing you in BA and R. If Segura plays this "full" year like it's a normal March-through-May, he could finish as one of the better hitters in the NL and a full, five-category contributor.

Tommy La Stella (2B/3B, Los Angeles Angels)

After good showings as a bit-part player for years, La Stella was a full-time player and All-Star in 2019 before getting hurt. Perhaps breaking his tibia and missing nearly all of the second half had a silver lining though. La Stella is a historically poor hitter in the second half. His .777 career first-half OPS indicates a player that had that All-Star upside.

Since the All-Star game doesn't take into account the second half of a season, La Stella could be someone who again benefits in the future. In the second half of seasons, though, La Stella falls off a cliff, with his OPS dropping 90 points. That is bad news for the Angels in normal seasons, but it could work to everyone's benefit in 2020.

Leury Garcia (OF, Chicago White Sox)

Garcia had a bit of a coming-out party last year as he earned everyday duties for the first time in his career. While he showed a reasonable split between first-half and second-half performance in 2019, the trend is even starker for the entirety of his career. Albeit in uneven playing time, Garcia is downright solid in the first half historically and pretty much unplayable in the second half. Take a look at his monthly splits. As seasons grind on, he gets worse and worse. The only time he ever improves from one month to the next is June into July. Otherwise, it is a steady decline in each subsequent month of the season.

Garcia isn't an elite fantasy option in any season, but he could be pretty useful in this short clip. If the White Sox stick him at the very bottom of the lineup every day, it will curtail his upside, but if Garcia plays this whole season like it's a normal March-June, we should see good production regardless in three categories.

Conclusion

There is no telling what impact this weird season will have on everyone in the league. It is even a stretch to assume that historically fast starters will do the same in these circumstances. However, projecting as best we can, it is useful to highlight those hitters who so often get off to hot starts that dwarf their overall performance and, most importantly, underestimate how much they should cost to acquire in drafts for this season.

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