Divisional Adjustments: Pitching Fallers

July 18, 2020

Riley Mrack evaluates starting pitchers whose fantasy baseball value is falling based on MLB divisional adjustments for 2020.

With summer camp officially underway, the beginning of the 2020 MLB season is fast approaching on its coattails with Opening Day coming later this month. The upcoming fantasy baseball campaign will be unlike any other we have seen before, with one of the reasons being the unorthodox schedule to help limit travel during this pandemic.

The regular season's 60-game schedule will break down into 40 games versus divisional opponents and 20 games versus a team's NL or AL divisional counterpart. Barring some missed time, a rough outlook of potential matchups for a starting pitcher should see them make 12 starts, two against each divisional foe (one home, one away), and one start versus each inter-league divisional counterpart. Judging by the limited number of opponents a team will face this year, we can identify which starting pitchers will play in a much more difficult schedule and might not produce the fantasy outcomes we'd typically expect.

We'll highlight the top hitting divisions from last season to determine where the disadvantages lie in some starting pitcher's schedules. Analyzing a team's K-rate (K%), On-Base Plus Slugging percentage (OPS), and Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) will give us an accurate representation of their hitting prowess versus both left and right-handed pitching. With a much smaller sample size to come in the 2020 season, we'll have much more unpredictable year-end results, but this exercise will hopefully help us wean out some of the potential underachievers for the upcoming fantasy season.

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Charlie Morton (TB, SP) - 59 ADP

It's no secret that the AL East is the most hitter-friendly division in the MLB, with four out of the five parks continually ranking in the top third of the league in Park Factor. Fortunately, Charlie Morton's home park in Tampa Bay is the most pitcher-friendly of the bunch, although his opponents within the division are well apt at hitting right-handers.

The Yankees and Red Sox were both top-five offenses in 2019, and we can expect similar production from these clubs in 2020 despite the loss of Mookie Betts in Beantown. The Blue Jays were underwhelming a season ago, but with their new crop of young infielders ready to play the entire schedule, they'll prove a much more formidable opponent in 2020. This leaves the O's as the only soft spot in the schedule, who were still tough to strike out a season ago, but they'll miss the top of the order bats of Trey Mancini and Jonathan Villar this year.

Morton wasn't terrible versus his inter-divisional competitors last season, going 6-2 with a 3.40ERA and a 30.8% K-rate in 82.0 IP. He did have much more success versus the rest of the league with a 2.80 ERA, but this season his only other opponents will reside in the NL East, who we'll soon find out how dangerous they were against righties in 2019. The strikeouts will still keep Morton's fantasy value high, but we should pump the brakes on his early-round ADP with one of the more problematic schedules on his agenda.

Zack Wheeler (PHI, SP) - 118 ADP

Zack Wheeler has a new home for the 2020 season after leaving the Mets and signing a five-year deal with their divisional rival in Philadelphia. He's always posted pretty solid numbers versus the Phillies, so it's no wonder they wanted him on their side for a change. His results versus the rest of the NL East, however, are less than appealing. Wheeler went 4-5 versus his remaining divisional foes in 2019 while holding a 5.13 ERA and a lowly 20.3% K-rate in 73.2 IP. The NL East was tough against righties a season ago, illustrated by the chart below.

The Braves, Nats, and Mets all touched up righties and will benefit from an additional hitter in their batting order instead of a pitcher for the upcoming year. The Phillies were a below-average offense, but he won't face his own club, leaving the Marlins as his only favorable divisional matchup.

We also know how harsh of an environment the AL East is to pitch in, and we also need to factor in that Wheeler may miss a start or two due to the arrival of his first child at the end of the month. He even mentioned possibly sitting out the entire season once he leaves the club to go on paternity leave. The threat of Wheeler missing time makes him extremely risky to roll the dice on for the 2020 season.

Max Fried (ATL, SP) - 134 ADP

Max Fried also had his difficulties versus his division last year, finishing his campaign with a 4-4 record, a troublesome 5.53 ERA, and a 23.5% K-rate through 68.2 IP. A far cry from his 2.96 ERA and 13-2 record versus the rest of the league, let's look at the data on how well the NL East fared against southpaws in 2019.

The Mets had a very underrated offense last season and could get back a healthy right-handed-hitting Yoenis Cespedes to DH for this season. While the Phillies underachieved as an offense in 2019, it'll be interesting to see if new manager Joe Girardi can get more out of his lineup in 2020. The Nationals lost Anthony Rendon to free agency, and lefty-killer Ryan Zimmerman is sitting out due to personal reasons, but overall it's still a great lineup. The reigning World Series champ return as an offensive threat; we just might not see as high of a finish in these categories. The Marlins are a weak spot in the schedule, but even their underwhelming lineup touched Fried up for eight earned runs in 11.0 IP last season.

Fried is a rising star in this game and, with enough time, could adjust to the hitters within his division. It will be harder for him in a shortened season with stricter pitch counts early in the year, so he may not throw the amount of innings to see it fully transpire. Facing the potent Yankees and Red Sox lineups plus the rising Rays and Blue Jays squads will also prove a difficult task, which is enough to move Fried down draft boards.

Caleb Smith (MIA, SP) - 227 ADP

Staying in the NL East, Caleb Smith is another left-hander that we should avoid targeting in the later rounds of drafts this season. He didn't find a ton of success against his divisional foes in 2019, going 5-5 with a 5.61 ERA and a 23.7% K-rate in 69.0 IP last year. Considering he'll face the same above-average offenses as Fried, but substitute in the Braves lineup instead of his own Marlins squad, his schedule looks even more difficult.

The Braves didn't hit southpaws as well as you may expect in 2019, finishing 20th in K-rate (23.7%), 10th in OPS (.784), and 15th in wRC+ (99), but they were by no means a team you'd want to face. With the arrival of Marcell Ozuna and the right-handed power bats of Austin Riley and Adam Duvall, who will see time with the addition of the DH, the Braves offense looks like their best lineup put on paper since the '90s.

Smith's 1.94 HR/9 also would have finished as the worst mark in baseball last season had he thrown nine more innings to qualify for the title. By the way, he accomplished this feat in arguably the most pitcher-friendly park in the league. These results won't bode well for his starts in the bam boxes of the AL East, plus Marlins Park is moving in their fences this year. Smith is a clear avoid for the 2020 season.

Mike Minor (TEX, SP) - 175 ADP

The AL West was undoubtedly one of the toughest divisions to pitch in as a left-hander a season ago. Looking at the table below, we see the damage that these teams did versus southpaws in 2019.

The Astros, A's, and Angels were the three most difficult clubs to strikeout last year, and all three teams will return with similar lineups plus the addition of the right-handed swinging Anthony Rendon to the Halos. Even the Mariners surprisingly finished in the top-10 in wRC+, although strikeouts will remain an issue with not much experience in the batting order. The Rangers were the only weak-hitting squad of the bunch, making Mike Minor a candidate to struggle in 2020 with the majority of his starts coming against the remaining clubs in the division.

The 32-year-old had his troubles versus his divisional rivals a season ago as he went 5-7 with a 5.08 ERA and a 24.6% K-rate in 95.2 IP. Minor's strikeout numbers were commendable, but seeing how he went 9-3 with a 2.32 ERA versus the rest of the league, it seems like the hitters in the AL West have him pegged. His new retractable-roofed home ballpark could help suppress some runs with less exposure to the warm Texas air, but it's dimensions are a bit smaller down the lines and to the power alleys. Add in a start versus each of the dangerous Rockies and Dodgers lineups, and Minor's schedule is looking grim.

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