Underpriced Hitters According to ATC Projections

With the 2020 MLB season shortened to 60 games, RotoBaller's Ariel Cohen has updated his ATC projections. Nicklaus Gaut turns these projections into fantasy baseball dollars and looks at underpriced hitters compared to NFBC ADP.

While nothing is guaranteed, we can at least see the light at the end of the tunnel. Baseball is back, baby! Summer camp (I refuse to call it Spring Training 2.0) has now begun and Opening Day is set for July 23/24. Coming with the return are seismic changes; a universal DH, limited opponents, a free runner in extra innings, and - in case you missed it - only 60 games!

All these new changes mean we have to throw out all of our old projections. Luckily, RotoBaller has 2019's most accurate ranker, Ariel Cohen, to give us his updated ATC projections. I took those projections and turned them into fantasy dollars, ranking them accordingly. By comparing these rankings to the latest NFBC ADP data, we can see which players ATC likes at their draft price, and who should be passed on.

We'll start with our dessert first and take a look at some of the bargains in the top-100 according to ATC. Projections aren't foolproof and there is bound to be some wild stuff in this short-sample season. But since it's release, ATC has proven to be one of the best forecasting systems available and it's wise to pay attention to some of the price discrepancies that it has found. Let's get started.

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Methodology

To work out the fantasy values, I applied a z-score methodology to ATC projections, first running the projections through the Fangraphs auction calculator and taking the 210 hitters who were valued above negative five dollars. I then applied my own z-score method to this revised player pool.

Slotting each player into their most important eligible position left me with the following distribution:

Along with my calculated dollar values, I used NFBC ADP's since April 15th, which left me with a sample pool of 30 drafts. Below are the 70 hitters being drafted within the top-100, along with what number hitter they're being drafted as, what number hitter ATC projects them as, and the difference between the two ranks:

J.D. Martinez, OF - 23 ADP

ATC Projections: 232 PA - 14 HR - 34 R - 39 RBI - 1 SB - .299 AVG

Martinez is one of the paragons of the type of player I'm gravitating towards this wild, wild west of a season. Similar fantasy contributions across the three non-SB categories and a hit tool that puts an elite average on the table.  While I don't think that batting average will be quite the driver of value relative to the other hitting categories that ERA and WHIP will be to pitchers, I think it has the best chance to be the game-changer category for hitters.

Tim Anderson's .335 AVG was best in baseball in 2019, with only four players batting over .320, and 19 finishing over a .300 AVG. After 60 games in 2019, four players had Anderson's mark beat, with Cody Bellinger leading the league with a .376 AVG, 11 players topping .320, and 29 players finishing over .300. There are going to be some crazy batting average spikes that make the fantasy superstars of 2020 and I want to collect as many hopefuls as I can.

The 32-year-old Martinez certainly fits the bill, having finished over a .300 AVG the past four seasons, and five of the last six. There was also the .330 AVG that Martinez put up in his spectacular 2018 campaign. I don't think he has another .330 season in him for a regular year, but for 60 games? Zero people should be surprised if Martinez bats .350 in 60 games. This isn't really about hoping that he will, it's about knowing that his skillset gives him a better chance than most.

Best Case Scenario

Pretty much what ATC is projecting but with an unsustainable batting average? Looking at his rates, ATC sees Martinez as essentially the same player in 2020 as he was in 2019, only with slightly more power (+1 HR). That was good for the 20th-best hitter and 9th-best outfielder according to the Fangraphs auction calculator. This was a fairly poor result given his first-round draft price prior to the season.

The first round price is gone, however, with Martinez now slotting in towards the back of the second round. That makes him a big bargain in ATC's eyes. Other players may have bigger gaps in their value but Martinez is a first-round player according to ATC and anytime you can get first-round production anywhere else, you have to call it a big win.

But what if he does crank up the average in this truncated season? Giving Martinez five more hits moves him to a .324 AVG and the #5 hitter. If we shoot for the stars and give him 10 more hits (.348 AVG), he moves up to the #2 hitter. Wishful thinking? Sure. But not off the table.

George Springer, OF - 45 ADP

ATC Projections: 233 PA - 13 HR - 37 R - 32 RBI - 2 SB - .276 AVG

The perennially underrated George Springer gets some ATC love! The above line made Springer the 18th hitter and ninth OF according to my valuations, one spot behind Bryce Harper and one spot ahead of Starling Marte, who is being taken 20 picks earlier. Springer is coming off the best season of his career, setting highs in HR (39), RBI (96), and batting average (.292). Normally I avoid paying for a player who's coming off of a career year but Springer's 2020 draft price didn't spike nearly as much as his 2019 performance did; he's moved from a 60 ADP in 2019 to a 45 ADP this season.

Springer gives you a bit of everything, albeit very little in stolen bases, but his biggest projected contributions are in HR and R. Projected for the ninth-most runs scored, you don't have to squint very hard to imagine Springer continuing to put up top numbers in the category. He's locked into batting leadoff for one of baseball's most dangerous offenses, trashcan or not. Runs shouldn't be an issue.

At first blush, you might think that ATC is being too aggressive by projecting Springer to hit the 14th-most home runs (and the same as Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, and Christian Yelich), especially following a year where he hit 39 HR in 556 PA after hitting just 22 HR in 620 PA in 2018. However, ATC isn't projecting the high HR/PA rate that Springer put up in 2019 or the low that he had in 2018, but rather closer to the happy-medium rate that he ran in 2017:

I'm comfortable with that rate, especially since Springer had a 14.3% Brl% that was easily a career high. That was good for the top 7% of baseball, while his xSLG, wOBA, xwOBA, and xwOBAcon were all in the top 4%. The biggest knock against Springer often has to do with the number of games he misses, but in a 60-game season, those aren't as big of concerns for me.

Besides the favorable projections and draft price, what I really love about Springer in this shortened season are the hot starts that he's proven capable of having.  Example? Since 2016, Springer has averaged 13 HR in April and May. That's the sixth most in baseball over that period, trailing only Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Nolan Arenado, J.D. Martinez, and Khris Davis. You've heard of those guys, right? How has he fared in the other categories?... To the Hot Start Index*!

*patent pending

In this bizarro season, I'm looking for guys who have proven capable of hitting the ground running when the season starts. With that in mind, I took a look at performance in just April and May since 2016, ranking players each year in each of the five roto categories.

Since 2016, Springer has averaged the following in April/May:

13 HR - 39 R - 35 RBI - 3 SB - .285 AVG

Comparing the above to the rest of baseball over the same period, where does Springer rank? Here are the players with the top-five average ranking:

That's the hot stuff, right there. Looking at ranks in this way is a bit simplistic but it's hard to deny that Springer likes to do a heavy spring raking.

Best Case Scenario

Here's a fun fact; ATC projects Springer for 233 PA, which coincidentally is his exact average for April/May from 2016-19. So let's just make our best-case scenario one where Springer puts up the same four-year averages in April and May from above. They're mostly small additions to his ATC projection: 2 runs, 3 RBI, 1 SB, and two more hits...The results are in.

Remember, Springer already started out pretty good, clocking in as the projected 19th-best hitter while being drafted like the 32nd. Moving him to his four-year average by adding the numbers above, however, moves him into an elite tier. With the additions, Springer would project as the 11th-best hitter, finishing just ahead of Jose Ramirez, Trevor Story, and Freddie Freeman.

Eddie Rosario, OF - 92 ADP

ATC Projections: 215 PA - 11 HR - 30 R - 33 RBI - 2 SB - .282 AVG

Here's the thing; all the above projections have done is throw more fuel on my Eddie Rosario fire that hasn't stopped burning all of this extended offseason. Being drafted as the 66th hitter, Rosario lit things up in 2019, slashing .276/.300/.500 with 32 home runs, 91 runs, 93 RBI, and 2 SB.

Batting cleanup, Rosario was a monster cog in Minnesota's offensive juggernaut, even as he battled a lingering ankle issue in the second half. Rosario went from an .841 OPS prior to going on the IL in late-June, to a .750 OPS in 266 PA following his return. But Rosario is now fully healthy and still in the middle of a Twins lineup that could be even better with the offseason addition of Josh Donaldson.

Best Case Scenario

I was high on him before and I'm even higher now, placing Rosario #40-overall in our latest RotoBaller rankings. I think the above projection feels pretty realistic and it would only need to be a little better to justify my ranking. But we're here to dream bigger. What if Rosario puts up the same numbers as he did in April and May of 2019?

2019 April/May: 229 PA - 17 HR - 39 R - 49 RBI - 2 SB - .277 AVG

Admit it, you didn't remember just how on fire Rosario was last year. How good? Giving him the above numbers moves him from being the projected #37 hitter to the #4 hitter, finishing behind only Trout, Acuna, and Yelich. That's how good.

Nelson Cruz, DH - 68 ADP

ATC Projections: 233 PA - 9 HR - 32 R - 29 RBI - 4 SB - .268 AVG

Do you hear that? Somewhere RotoBaller's Nick Mariano is softly weeping tears of joy at ATC being on board with his love of Cruz's awesomeness. Wait...(checking the recently updated RotoBaller ranking and sees that I actually have Cruz ranked higher than other Nick)...It looks like I'm weeping tears of joy too! And not softly. Because when Mariano and Ariel Cohen - fantasy baseball's most accurate rankers from 2018 and 2019 - both agree with your assessment, you're probably on the right track. Huzzah!

I don't care if Cruz is now 40 years old. In a wacky season where anything could happen, I'm looking for players with track records of consistent performance. It doesn't get much more consistent than Cruz:

I'll personally always have a soft spot for Cruz because of how he alligator-armed David Freese's triple in the 2011 World Series but how can you not love that kind of fantasy performance? You can basically book 40 HR, 100 RBI, and 80-90 R, along with a majority of the games played.

Cruz did play in his fewest games since 2013 due to two separate wrist issues but neither the three weeks missed in May or the two weeks in August seemed to affect the slugger:

Cruz is set to bat third in one of baseball's most dangerous lineups, being preceded by Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco, and followed by Josh Donaldson, the aforementioned Rosario, and Mitch Garver. That lineup is not just overpowered but one that should be well-served by the limited schedule that teams will play in 2020.

Here are the teams that Cruz and the Twin will be playing in 2020, ordered by their 2020 rotation's ERA in 2019:

Best Case Scenario

Barring injury, I find it hard to believe that Cruz won't again be dropping fantasy bombs in 2020. Skills, lineup, opponents; all of these are already wildly in Cruz's favor. If Cruz does his typical Cruz things, he'll far outearn his draft price. In only 120 games in 2019, Cruz finished as the #25 hitter in 5 x 5 leagues according to the Fangraphs auction calculator, finishing just ahead of Starling Marte.

It's hard to give a 40-year-old player the same production rates as last season, but once again, we're here to dream big. Plugging in Cruz's per-PA rates from 2019 results in the following line:

16 HR - 32 R - 42 RBI - 0 SB - .306 AVG

That is a bump up from ATC of three home runs, four runs, six RBI, and four hits. Those bumps would move Cruz from the projected 33rd-hitter according to ATC, to the 8th-highest hitter, finishing just behind Nolan Arenado and just ahead of J.D. Martinez and Rafael Devers. Once again, Cruz is going in the sixth round of 12-team league drafts.

Marcell Ozuna, OF - 92 ADP

ATC Projections: 224 PA - 11 HR - 29 R - 34 RBI - 3 SB - .272  AVG

If you thought I was going to skip by Ozuna even though he's projected to be the second-biggest bargain in the top-100, allow me to say, "Welcome, new reader!" Pandemic or no pandemic, I refuse to slow down my personal Ozuna hype-train.

All it took was one soft year to make fantasy players drop Ozuna after he finished as the 64th-best hitter according to Fangraphs auction calculator, playing in just 130 games. He still managed 29 home runs, 80 runs, 89 RBI, and 11 SB. Solid stuff but Ozuna was really dragged down by a career-low .241 AVG.

However, that might have had something to do with the two fractured fingers that caused him to miss the entire month of July. Ozuna batted .312 in 2017, .280 in 2018, and was batting .260 prior to breaking his fingers while diving back to first base on June 28. He returned on August 4 and proceeded to post a .214 AVG over his final 223 PA, with just a .729 OPS. I'm no pro but sources tell me that messed up fingers make it hard to hit.

Ozuna's final line may have been disappointing but his Statcast profile was a completely different story. Think I'm exaggerating? Roll that beautiful bean footage:

Wait, that's not it. I meant that beautiful Statcast footage:

Ozuna's hard-hit rate was in the top 4% of baseball, his average exit-velocity was in the top 7%, and his xSLG was in the top 9%. He may have only managed a .241 AVG but his .288 xBA was basically on point with recent history, and Ozuna had a career-low .257 BABIP.

Best Case Scenario

Does everyone really think that Ozuna is going to have a brutal batting average again? Because I don't. And while I'm mostly on board with his ATC projections, I think there's some more left in that production tank. The Cardinals offense was mediocre in 2019, finishing with a .314 wOBA that was the 12th-lowest in baseball. Now, Ozuna goes to a high-powered offense where he'll bat cleanup and be preceded in the order by Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, and Ronald Acuna Jr. And with a season that won't start until late-July, Ozuna will be playing all season in Hot-lanta weather. And speaking of hotness, going back to the Hot Start Index from above, Ozuna dominates early in the season, finishing with the eigth-highest average rank across the roto categories.

Let's do as we've done before and give Ozuna the production rates from 2019, over the 224 PA that ATC is projecting. That would give him the following line:

12 HR - 33 R - 36 RBI - 5 SB

Not that big of an upgrade, with just one home run, four runs, two RBI, and two stolen bases. Those additions, however, would move Ozuna from the 39th-highest projected hitter to the 18th-highest. But what about his average? Truthfully, I think ATC's projected .273 batting average is probably about right. But we're not here for his above-average scenario, we're here for the best-case.

Giving Ozuna three more hits brings him up to a .287 AVG that's more in line with his .288 xBA from 2019. That would bump Ozuna up even higher, with him projected as the 15th-highest hitter.

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