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Every NL hitter will benefit from the universal DH in 2020. Todd Salem identifies players that could be risers for runs scored in fantasy baseball leagues.
For the first time in baseball history, the National League will employ the position of designated hitter. Besides making NL games more exciting to watch, this change should have two main effects.
First, NL pitchers will see some level of decline in their ratios. It is inevitable when facing superior opposing lineups. The second change will be an increase in production from NL offenses. There is no deep analysis here. Getting the inept pitcher out of the lineup and putting an actual hitter in his place will improve results. But whose results will improve the most? Obviously, the guy being slotted in at DH will benefit, but who else?
What we could see this year is an increase in runs scored from some of the better players at the top of lineups. Whereas in years past, NL lineups could fall off dramatically after the top half, each one will be lengthened in 2020. Putting a full-time hitter somewhere in the middle of the lineup means more times being knocked in for the guys getting on base at the top. Let's see who could benefit most.
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Trea Turner and Adam Eaton, Washington Nationals
The Washington Nationals are coming off of a season in which they scored the sixth-most runs in the league, trailing only four American League clubs and the Los Angeles Dodgers. In 2020, however, the defending champs will be replacing a putrid pitcher in the lineup with Howie Kendrick. Kendrick is lined up to play much more this season than originally thought. He and Eric Thames are two of the biggest immediate beneficiaries of the NL DH (also thanks to the absence of Ryan Zimmerman). But their teammates ahead of them in the lineup will benefit as well.
Turner and Eaton were already elite run scorers. They each topped 90 runs scored last year; Turner doing so in just 122 games played. That was with Anthony Rendon behind them in the lineup. We thought each would take a step back with Rendon moving on, but now they were gifted a darn good replacement.
Kendrick was second on the Nationals in slugging last year, trailing only Rendon. He only received 370 plate appearances, but even that was the seventh most on the club. He was a member of Washington's regular substitution pattern. Now he should be an everyday player. Instead of downgrading Turner and Eaton because their surroundings declined, we can remain confident in their elite run-scoring again in 2020.
Jean Segura, Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies were a disappointment in 2019. Segura was a small part of the reason. His OPS+, which had been well above league average for three straight seasons, dropped to 90. In the process, he scored just 79 runs in 618 plate appearances. He has never been a big walker, so some of his run-scoring ability comes down to guys behind him executing.
Philadelphia will now be able to replace a pitcher with Jay Bruce every day in the lineup. Bruce was looking like he might be squeezed out of playing time before the addition of the DH. This despite slugging .510 with 12 home runs in just 51 games for Philly last season. After a down 2018, Bruce's power returned last season, which should only benefit those ahead of him in the lineup.
Lorenzo Cain, Milwaukee Brewers
Before the changes to the '20 season, there was some consideration for ignoring Cain this year in fantasy. He is in his mid-30s and coming off a career-worst season in which he offered little more than steals, and even that production was inefficient by today's standards (18 steals in 26 attempts).
But that was before Milwaukee was able to replace their pitcher hitting with Ryan Braun. Braun was likely headed for a timeshare at first base. Now he should play pretty much every day. And though his star has faded, his production remains useful. As the Brewers control his playing time to keep him healthy, Braun continues to hit. This year, that load management shouldn't even be an issue, allowing for the hitters ahead of Braun in the lineup to reap the rewards.
If Cain suddenly gets back to elite production in two categories (runs and steals), without killing your batting average, he is firming fantasy relevant once again.
Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs have taken flak in recent years for disappointing results. Bryant and Rizzo are at the forefront of that criticism not because they've been bad, but because they are the faces of the franchise. On the contrary, they both remain very good hitters. And they may catch a break this year with some help from the DH.
Instead of that pesky pitcher hitting, Chicago likely turns to Ian Happ every day in the lineup (with Happ playing the outfield and Kyle Schwarber filling the DH slot). Happ isn't just underutilized; he's flat-out one of Chicago's most talented hitters when right. Other than midseason acquisition Nick Castellanos, no Cub slugged higher than Happ at .564. He only garnered 156 plate appearances as he worked his way back from a demotion to the minor leagues, yet Happ continues to barrel the ball as much as any of the elite hitters in the game. Bryant and Rizzo should benefit mightily from that power coming up behind them more often this season.
Conclusion
Every NL hitter will benefit from a deeper lineup around him this season. A few guys should see dramatic enough impacts as to alter their fantasy value and draft position. The confluence of events required for that result includes lineup placement, skill set, batting order, and the DH teammate ready to leap at his good fortune.
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