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Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Rhys Hoskins is a 2020 fantasy baseball draft value. His ADP is undervalued, making him a potential draft bargain and late-round sleeper to target.
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~100
CURRENT ADP: ~120 overall
ANALYSIS: Rhys Hoskins had a rough 2019 but not as bad as most people are making it out to be. Yes, his .226 average wasn't good, and hitting five fewer home runs is never something we can get excited about. However, there are still some strong indicators of a bounceback if you look under the surface.
Perhaps most crucially, Hoskins' elite batting eye is still there. His K% jumped to 24.5% but his BB% also increased to 16.5%, which indicates he was being too patient. However, a 16.5 BB% is elite and tremendously important for a slugger because it shows he can work the count into a favorable situation where he can get pitches he can drive. The issue is that his swing mechanics led to an increase in launch angle to 24 degrees, which was way too high and caused a 15.3% infield fly ball rate. In fact, his increasing launch angle over the last three years has been directly connected to a decline in his overall production (left).
However, Hoskins' exit velocity was strong last year, coming in at 89.7 mph, which was up from 2019. He's also, obviously, taken note of his flaws and spent the off-season re-working his swing to try and cut down on the exaggerated launch angle. With his strong exit velocity, impressive patience, and a spot in the middle of a strong lineup, I believe that Hoskins could be in for a strong season if he can adjust his launch angle back to 2017 and 1028 levels. You could be looking at a .245 average with 35 HR, 90 RBI, 90 Runs, and a solid OBP. I'll take that as my starting 1B at his ADP, which will allow me to load up on other positions first or take some of the really intriguing SPs that have been rising to an ADP of 100.
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