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Oakland A's first Baseman/outfielder Mark Canha had a solid 2019 MLB season. Kipp Heisterman examines his stats to determine whether he will be a strong sleeper candidate for fantasy baseball owners in 2020 based on ADP.
Mark Canha had a solid 2019 campaign and is one player that probably deserves more attention heading into 2020 than he is currently receiving. He finished the season hitting .273/.396/.517 with 26 HR, 58 RBI, 80 R, and 67 BB in 410 at-bats. It was a very productive line for a guy that played in a total of 126 games.
Looking forward to 2020, we have to ask if he will be able to repeat the performance or improve upon it. While he does play in an infamous pitcher's park, he also hits in the middle of a lineup that scored the eighth-most runs in baseball, and that was with Khris Davis having a down year. In 2020, Canha may also see action in more games as he is currently listed atop their depth chart in left field and will likely see some time at first base, where he played a total of 15 games in 2019.
Aside from these positives, a deeper look into Canha's advanced metrics should also give us an idea of what to expect in 2020. Looking into his splits will also shed some light on the season ahead.
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Canha had a surge in home runs in 2019 by hitting 26 after never hitting more than 17 in four previous seasons. His advanced metrics tell us he had an 8.5% barrel rate, 88.5 mph exit velocity, .248 xBA, and 41.1% hard-hit rate. Each of these was better than his career norms. The biggest reason for the surge was likely due to increased playing time. Canha had 410 at-bats, which was the most since 2015 when he accrued 441 at-bats. It is also no coincidence that 2015 was the only season that rivaled 2019 as far as production. He also pulled the ball 49.2% of the time, which was the highest in his career and was nearly seven percent above his career average. This could be a sign of things to come if he continues to transition to this style of hitting.
Continual development is great for Canha as long as he can keep the strikeout rate at a moderate level, which he did in 2019 by striking out 21.5% of the time. Canha also provides plenty of value as far as getting on base is concerned. He put up a solid walk rate of 13.5%, which ranked him in the top eight percent of the league. This is one of the main reasons he was able to put up a .386 wOBA, which also ranked him in the top eight percent of the league. The ability to get on base in an offense as potent as Oakland's cannot be understated. He is projected to hit fifth in the lineup, which will put him in a great spot to not only drive in runs with his power but also tally runs with his stellar on-base skills.
Examining Canha's splits also gives us a little more insight into his type of performance capabilities. In 2019, Canha was much stronger against right-handed pitching as he hit to the tune of .297/.418/.548 with a .966 OPS, 18 HR, 43 RBI, 57 R, and 44 BB in 279 at-bats. While it was a down year for him versus left-handed pitching as evidenced by his .221 average, this has not always been the case. He is just one season removed from slashing .282/.337/.604 with a .941 OPS and 13 home runs in just 149 at-bats vs. lefties. If he can return to this type of level vs. left-handed pitching in 2020, a 30-35 home run season would be well within reach.
2020 Outlook
Overall, Mark Canha should return solid value in 2020. He can hit for power while also putting up a tremendous walk rate. Pair this with the fact that he will be hitting in the middle of a potent lineup and you have the makings of a respectable sleeper. He currently has an ADP of 283 and is being taken as the 71st outfielder and 23rd first baseman off the board. This translates to him being taken in the 23rd round of 12-team leagues. He will provide plenty of value at this spot and can even be considered one to two rounds earlier given his dual position eligibility.
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