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Miami Marlins outfielder Corey Dickerson is a fantasy baseball sleeper and undervalued draft target for the 2020 season. Jamie Steed explains why Dickerson could provide value at OF this year.
Corey Dickerson signed a two-year deal with the Miami Marlins this offseason, not normally something which is a recipe for fantasy success. However, Dickerson is someone who can provide fantasy value in what appears to be a slightly improved lineup.
The addition of Jonathan Villar along with the emergence of Brian Anderson and Jon Berti means the Marlins have some solid pieces around Dickerson who figures to feature in one of the top-four spots in the lineup.
The outfield fences at Marlins Park have also been moved in a bit (five feet in right field and seven feet in center field) which should help a lefty hitter such as Dickerson. Playing for the Marlins in 2020 isn’t as bad as it was in 2019.
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Dickerson's 2019
Dickerson suffered from injuries last year, playing just four games to start the year before a shoulder injury saw him shelved for two months. After being traded by the Pirates to the Phillies, Dickerson then suffered a foot injury in early September and was eventually shut down for a couple of weeks before the season ended. Prior to last year, Dickerson averaged 144 games between 2016 – 2018 so there’s no reason to be overly concerned about his health as he enters this season still only 30 years old.
A slight on Dickerson is his platoon splits, although being a left-handed hitter, at least he’s on the better side of a platoon. Despite being notably more adept at hitting right-handed pitching (RHP) than left-handed pitching (LHP), it’s not like Dickerson can’t hit LHP at all. He is still a useful enough hitter to get the fair share of at-bats against lefty starters. The table below shows how Dickerson still puts up solid (if unspectacular) numbers against LHP and how last year was an improvement compared to his career numbers.
| Split | AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | Hard hit % |
| 2019 vs RHP | .313 | .355 | .587 | 136 | 42.0% |
| 2019 vs LHP | .271 | .290 | .492 | 96 | 28.9% |
| Career vs RHP | .290 | .333 | .533 | 125 | 36.5% |
| Career vs LHP | .272 | .310 | .409 | 90 | 27.7% |
Dickerson's 2020 Competition
With that in mind, the Marlins aren’t flush with alternatives to sit Dickerson against LHP. The below table gives us a comparison of the outfielders currently on the Marlins’ 40-man roster and their career numbers against LHP.
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | Hard hit % |
| Corey Dickerson | 668 | .272 | .310 | .409 | 90 | 27.7% |
| Matt Joyce | 553 | .188 | .272 | .309 | 63 | 28.3% |
| Brian Anderson | 324 | .243 | .327 | .399 | 100 | 41.6% |
| Lewis Brinson | 194 | .208 | .284 | .347 | 70 | 42.1% |
| Garrett Cooper | 144 | .252 | .292 | .407 | 85 | 35.6% |
| Harold Ramirez | 124 | .263 | .298 | .364 | 75 | 39.8% |
| Jon Berti | 66 | .267 | .333 | .517 | 123 | 34.9% |
| Magneuris Sierra | 37 | .417 | .432 | .444 | 143 | 16.0% |
Although on the 40-man roster, Monte Harrison and Jesus Sanchez have been excluded as they’ve yet to play a major league game.
There are small samples for Berti and Sierra especially, but looking at those numbers, it’s hard to make a strong case to start three of the Marlins’ existing outfielders over Dickerson. There will still be occasions where Dickerson sits against LHP but health permitting, he should still make 140+ starts again.
Despite his 2019 injury woes, Dickerson still managed to put up some impressive Statcast numbers last year too. Of the 281 hitters with a minimum of 200 batted ball events (BBE) in 2019, Dickerson’s barrel rate of 6.1 Brls/PA% tied him for 98th and his sweet spot rate of 44.0 SwSp% was third best. Dickerson’s highest home run total in any season was the 27 HRs he hit in 2017 so expecting him to suddenly hit 30 HRs isn’t realistic. Despite that, given his career numbers and what he managed to do in limited games last year, his Steamer projection of 19 homers in 126 games looks a little light. That’s especially true of the projected .272 AVG which would be the second-lowest of his career since his first full season in 2014.
In Conclusion
Given Dickerson’s current ADP of ~318, according to our Expected Draft Values research released this February, just matching his Steamer projections to the closest EDV comp would offer break-even value at around a ~250 ADP. It's clear Dickerson is being undervalued! There’s an apparent Marlins discount built into Dickerson’s current draft cost, which is better than anything you’ll find in the Black Friday sales. As long as you’re not scrambling around for steals late in the draft, taking Dickerson is a good depth move in deep leagues.
