RADIO
Nick Federline reviews Super Bowl Squares historical trends in advance of Super Bowl LIV, including some strategies and advice for the popular office pool game.
One of the most common "office pool" games across the country this time of year is played on a piece of paper with 100 squares. The "Super Bowl Squares" game is a staple in offices and at Super Bowl parties because it is a fun way for everyone to have a rooting interest in the big game.
The game works simply. In the days leading up to the big game, a box with 100 squares, 10 wide by 10 high, is slowly filled one-by-one. Once all the boxes have been filled, the numbers 0 through 9 are randomly assigned to each column and then to each row so that each individual cell is a unique combination. The players now have their number combination that they are rooting for. The last digit of each team's final score will correspond with the winning square.
In the Chiefs' two Super Bowl appearances, the number zero was extremely popular, connecting on all four quarters in their Super Bowl I loss to Green Bay and the only other numbers to hit were the next-most-popular three and seven. The 49ers have appeared in the Super Bowl six times, bringing many unconventional or unexpected results. For example, their Super Bowl games have never ended the first quarter with a score ending in zero, bucking the most popular number in favor of three, seven and four. Over the course of the six appearances, the 49ers have ended a quarter with each of the 10 possible last digits. How much does historical data matter for something that seems like random luck, especially for games that took place years and even decades ago? More than you might imagine. Let's take a look, quarter by quarter.
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First Quarter
| Q1 | ||||
| # | NFC | AFC | Total | % |
| 1 | - | - | - | 0.0% |
| 2 | - | - | - | 0.0% |
| 3 | 14 | 9 | 23 | 21.7% |
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 6.6% |
| 5 | - | - | - | 0.0% |
| 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.9% |
| 7 | 8 | 11 | 19 | 17.9% |
| 8 | 1 | - | 1 | 0.9% |
| 9 | 2 | - | 2 | 1.9% |
| 0 | 23 | 29 | 52 | 49.1% |
The first-quarter results show that the best number to have on the board is undoubtedly zero, which has been one of the two teams' results in 49.1%. If you have the numbers one, two, five, six, eight or nine, you should take another trip to the buffet line during the first quarter because those have been winning numbers in the first quarter combination only six combined times. The American Football Conference (AFC) team has ended the first quarter with zero more often than their National Football Conference (NFC) counterparts.
Halftime
| Q2/Halftime | ||||
| # | NFC | AFC | Total | % |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4.7% |
| 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4.7% |
| 3 | 11 | 9 | 20 | 18.9% |
| 4 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 10.4% |
| 5 | 1 | - | 1 | 0.9% |
| 6 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 9.4% |
| 7 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 17.0% |
| 8 | 3 | - | 3 | 2.8% |
| 9 | 3 | - | 3 | 2.8% |
| 0 | 15 | 15 | 30 | 28.3% |
The second quarter adds variability to the results. Zero is still the most common result at 28.3%, followed closely by three, seven, and four. Five has only been in the halftime winning combination once out of 106 results.
Third Quarter
| Q3 | ||||
| # | NFC | AFC | Total | % |
| 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 5.7% |
| 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2.8% |
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 13.2% |
| 4 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 12.3% |
| 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3.8% |
| 6 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 11.3% |
| 7 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 21.7% |
| 8 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5.7% |
| 9 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 6.6% |
| 0 | 11 | 7 | 18 | 17.0% |
The third quarter is much more wide open, as teams' scores increase and more time for missed extra points and safeties helps the range of reasonable possibilities expand. As expected, the numbers zero, three and seven are the most common winners, but the rest of the pack is not far behind.
Final Score
| Q4/Final | ||||
| # | NFC | AFC | Total | % |
| 1 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 13.2% |
| 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3.8% |
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 11.3% |
| 4 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 14.2% |
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 4.7% |
| 6 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 9.4% |
| 7 | 13 | 6 | 19 | 17.9% |
| 8 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5.7% |
| 9 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 7.5% |
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 12.3% |
So what is the best final score number combination to have for the big game? The Chiefs' average points scored in a Super Bowl is 17 points per game (ppg), and they have allowed 21 ppg in their two collective Super Bowl appearances. The 49ers are averaging a more robust 37 ppg in six appearances against 21 ppg allowed in Super Bowls. Overall, the best number is traditionally zero, followed by seven, three and four, while two and five are the numbers that a competitor should desire to stay away from in the past.
Conclusion
The beauty of the Super Bowl Squares game is that anything can happen. In Super Bowl XLVIII, the Seahawks' Cliff Avril tackled Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno in the end zone for a safety, which caused unexpected Super Bowl Squares results for the remainder of the game. When Adam Vinatieri's extra point attempt failed in the first quarter of Super Bowl XLI, the resulting scores in the game's four quarters did not follow historical precedents.
We've seen which numbers are most likely to hit based on past results but often this game is played without player choice, meaning you are simply hoping for a lucky draw. The best thing you can do is sit back, relax, enjoy the game and hope history is on your side or that history is made depending on the number combination that you end up with.
