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Joe Nicely digs into his PGA DFS Core Four for Farmers Insurance Open, an article that provides DraftKings daily fantasy golf lineup selections.
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Hello RotoBallers and thanks for joining me for the Farmers Insurance Open! In this article you will find my four favorite overall DraftKings DFS lineup plays for this week's PGA tournament.
The 'Core Four' will usually be spread across different DraftKings price points, but every week in PGA DFS is different and this article will reflect that by trying to give you an overall outlook of how the slate is shaping up. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!
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Farmers Insurance Open Notes
We're already several weeks into 2020, but this is the first tournament of the year that feels big. This is the best field we've seen in a long time and golfers will face a challenging Torrey Pines South track. As usual, we have some big decisions to make up top, with players like Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and Tiger Woods that we would love to roster. However, putting these guys in your lineups puts a huge dent in the salary cap this week, which means you must be willing to embrace some risk at the lower end of the salary scale.
While that type of 'Stars & Scrubs' approach worked well for an event like last week's AmEx, I have my doubts as to its effectiveness for the Farmers. We've routinely seen the best players in the field be at or near the top of the leaderboard in this event, which sends me down the path of "get as much quality in my lineup as possible" this week. That said, I will be mixing in the big boys in some GPP builds, while going more balanced in single-entry formats.
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.
Gary Woodland - DraftKings: $9,500
Probably not a huge surprise here, as it looks as though Gary Woodland is going to be one of the most heavily-owned players on the board this week. I'm willing to eat a bit of chalk with Woody for a couple of reasons though...he's in solid form and heads to Torrey with four-straight finishes inside the top-seven over his last four starts.
His length and ball-striking ability makes him a great fit for this layout and it shows in his previous Farmers results, as he's finished inside the top-20 in this event every year since 2016. Woodland's price is also palatable and the salary savings he offers when compared to Rory or Rahm makes a difference when you get to the sixth spot in your lineup this week.
Tony Finau - DraftKings: $9,300
We can argue about "win equity" all day - and I understand and acknowledge the concept - but when it comes to Finau I'm admittedly a bit of a homer and subscribe to the much less-statistical thought of "he's too good not to eventually win a big tournament". I know that's a narrative-based statement, but he's also a great statistical fit this week.
Finau's length always serves him well on these types of stretched-out, difficult golf courses and he's been perfect in five Farmers starts since 2015, never finishing outside of the top-25 with a T4 in '17 and a T6 in '18. He's honestly not been great statistically over the last couple of months, but a second-round 62 at the AmEx last week lets me know that his game is rounding into form.
Marc Leishman - DraftKings: $8,300
I'm kinda surprising myself with Marc Leishman here, as he's not a guy that I roster very often. He usually goes as far as his putter carries him - and considering the fact that he was absolutely miserable on the greens during his last start at the Sony - rostering the big Aussie does require something of a leap of faith.
However, Leishman's ball-striking numbers were off the charts at the Sony - he led the field with a MASSIVE 6.8 Strokes Gained on Approach and also gained over 4 strokes Off the Tee - so I'm willing to gamble on him in this week's atmosphere, where I feel that we can devalue putting a bit. His track record at Torrey Pines doesn't blow you away, but it is solid enough (he's made four of five cuts since 2015 with a T8 in '18) that I feel comfortable with him at this DFS price point.
Keegan Bradley - DraftKings: $7,300
Say a little prayer for me here...I've tried my best to get away from Keegan Bradley throughout the week, but I just keep coming back to him. The $7.3k price is obviously the big draw for me, as it just opens up so many things when building lineups. Rostering Keegs at this price allows you to work in a Rory or Rahm if you so choose without relying on a sub-$7k player that you might feel is a dart throw.
He's volatile yes, but he's actually been really consistent in his last few Farmers starts, going T35/5th/T4 at Torrey since 2017. It's possibly a sign of the coming apocalypse that he GAINED strokes putting at the Sony, but I'm not even weighing that here, and instead choosing to focus on his reliably-sharp ball striking and value price tag.
