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Antonio Losada looks at last season's top running backs and puts them in historical context to know where they rank among the best players at the position when compared to each year starters using their Value Over Starter.
We've already covered VOS for quarterback, wide receiver, and tight end. Now it's time for the all-important running back position.
In order to know how good a starter (top 12 for QBs and TEs, top 24 for RBs and WRs; the number of starters per position in Yahoo! standard leagues without considering the FLEX spot) was in any given season we shouldn't just look at his numbers in a vacuum, but rather in that year's environment. To do that we can use what I've called Value Over Starter or VOS. VOS is calculated on the basis of the top performers' fantasy points obtained during the full season, so different years have different performing levels (for example, a great passing year in 2019 might look more impressive than one in 2000 in terms of counting stats, but the best 2000 passer might have had a better year when compared to his contemporaries in their context).
This article will cover the top-24 RBs (that is, RB1/RB2) at the position during the past 20 years going from the 2000 season to the just finalized 2019 campaign. Let's get started!
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Value Over Starter: A Quick Primer
As I already introduced in the first paragraphs of the article, I'll be using the Value Over Starter metric to asses how good a player was in a given season compared to the rest of starters at his position. The VOS metric is calculated following a simple set of steps:
- Divide each player's total fantasy points into three categories: passing (paPPR), rushing (ruPPR), and receiving (rePPR); knowing what each stat is worth in PPR-format fantasy leagues (0.1 points per receiving yard, 6 points per rushing touchdown, 1 point per reception, etc...)
- Calculate the total points generated by the top 12 QBs and TEs and the top 24 RBs and WRs for each category.
- For each player inside those top 12 or top 24, subtract his paPPR, ruPPR, and rePPR for the combined addition for the position/year/category, then divide that number by 11 or 23 depending on the position.
- Divide the player value for each category by the number calculated in Step 3. The resulting number would tell us if the player was dead average among starters (VOS 1), if he performed over the starters' average level in that position in that category (VOS>1), or if he performed under the starters' average level in that position in that category (VOS<1)
Quarterback's VOS is based on both the passing and rushing categories, running backs' VOS is based on both the rushing and receiving categories, and wide receivers' and tight ends' VOS is based just on the receiving category.
Here is an example of the calculation to make things a bit clearer and allow you to replicate the method if you want to. Taking Lamar Jackson's 2019 season and following the steps aforementioned:
- Jackson scored 417.7 total points in 2019. 259.1 of those came via passing (259.1 paPPR), and 160.6 came via rushing (160.6 ruPPR).
- Top-12 QBs (starters at the position in standard leagues) combined for 3048.2 paPPR and 664.7 ruPPR.
- If Lamar Jackson had not been part of that top-12, the average starter would have averaged (3048.2-259.1 divided by 11) 253.6 paPPR, and (664.7-160.6 divided by 11) 45.8 ruPPR on the season.
- Lamar Jackson's passing VOS would come from dividing his paPPR by the average of the other 11 starters (259.1/253.6) and would yield a 1.02 paVOS. Same with the ruPPR (160.6/45.8) for a 3.50 ruVOS. Jackson's QB VOS in 2019 would be paVOS+ruVOS = 4.52 VOS, then adjusted for the season's environment taking in consideration the percentage of points the average starter got from passing/rushing/receiving stats. The final value comes down to 1.374 VOS on the 2019 season for Jackson, making him the leader among all starters.
2019 RB1/RB2 In Historical Context
Now that you know how the VOS metric works, we can put the 2019 running back class in context. There have been 480 top-24 running backs since 2000. The best of them had a 2.021 VOS (2019 Christian McCaffrey) while the worst had a 0.637 VOS (2003 Eddie George). And just like that, the best fantasy rusher ever (at least when compared to the level of his contemporaries) happens to belong to the very recent 2019 campaign!
Moving on to year-to-year trends, here is how things look like historically:
Turns out all of the praises thrown CMC's way were well earned. Not since 2006 had we seen a fantasy running back as valuable as McCaffrey was over the rest of the starters (top-24 players) at the position. It was LaDainian Tomlinson (481.1 FP) back then, who edged no. 2 that season (Steven Jackson) by more than 65 FP on the full year. McCaffrey bested 2019 no. 2 Aaron Jones by more than 155 FP (!). That was a staggering difference and shows how ahead of the pack CMC was this past season.
Although there is not a massively clear upward trend with running backs as there is with tight ends, for example, the truth is that the gap between the best and the worst starters at the position is slowly but surely narrowing each passing year although it has grown in the very last few seasons breaking that 20-year long trend.
The smallest gap was that of the 2008 season: every top-24 running back finished with a VOS between 1.318 (DeAngelo Williams, 307.6 FP) and 0.726 (Reggie Bush, 186.4 FP). Up to seven players reached at least 270 FP that year (Williams, Matt Forte, Jones-Drew, Michael Turner, Tomlinson, Thomas Jones, and Steve Slaton), and only six of the 24 fell under the 200-FP mark.
The 2019 class of starting-rushers was defined by CMC's season first and foremost. The Panther was followed by three players on the 300-plus FP range, and only one running back (David Montgomery wasn't able to break for more than 180 FP this past season:
Not only did CMC become the best VOS-rusher of the past 20 years, but he also is the only running back from the past season (considering the 2019 season numbers, not if he's active or inactive) to make the top-25 list of that span. While he has ranked inside the top-24 rushers of the season in each of his three professional years, his second-best VOS (in 2018) finished at 1.610 good for 20th-best in that aforementioned list. Here is the top-25 in VOS at the RB position since 2000:
The next-best rusher in 2019 to appear in the 20-year list would be Austin Ekeler at the 55th position with a 1.342 VOS mostly due to his receiving exploits (239.3 rePPR compared to just 69.7 ruPPR). In fact, Ekeler's fantasy points tally catching the ball is the second-highest ever only behind CMC's own 2019 season mark (242.5 rePPR, which he paired with 228.7 ruPPR).
I have highlighted still-active running backs in yellow, and they made for 8 of the 25 spots on the list (32%), which is a fairly high percentage considering the earliest of seasons to come from them is Le'Veon Bell's 2014.
It is possible that Brian Westbrook's 2007 outing has caught your eye. Even with a rather "low" total PPR tally (368.4 PPR on the year), he had a 1.789 VOS that season. What boosted his VOS was the fact that other than him and LaDainian Tomlinson (also in the top-25 list with 367.6 PPR and 1.703 VOS) no other RB1/RB2 topped 276 FP while a good number of them (up to 10 of 24) fell under the 200-mark on the year. That made the average starter rather mediocre at the position and thus Westbrook and Tomlinson way more valuable.
Historic Performances
As a last historical note, let's review the best performers at the position while focusing on LaDainian Tomlinson's magnificent run (no pun intended). Tomlinson played 11 seasons between 2001 and 2011 and in 10 of those he finished as a fantasy RB1/RB2 (he missed on the feat just in his last season). Adrian Peterson has been a top-24 rusher in nine of his 13 pro-seasons, and Matt Forte in nine of his 10. Frank Gore has 12 (!) top-24 finishes but he's played 15 seasons already.
Here are the top-15 running backs since 2000 by career-average VOS (active players highlighted):
Six currently active players are inside the historical top-15 at the position right now, but getting back to Tomlinson the number of seasons he played doubles (at minimum) those of the other 14 players to make the cut. That is truly incredible and paired with his average 1.367 VOS makes him one of the best players at the position in the last 20 years and one to perform to great levels virtually every season.
In his worst year of those considered (2009) Tomlinson still racked up 176.4 FP and finished as the RB24 of the season. Other than that, his nine other seasons went for at least 216 FP each and a 0.900-plus VOS every single time.
McCaffrey has already three seasons under his belt and is keeping up a massive VOS over that span when compared to those of other active players with the same or more experience (Alvin Kamara, David Johnson, and Le'Veon Bell). Ekeler's year could have definitely been a mirage -- and he was definitely helped by Melvin Gordon's holdout -- while Barkley has also to replicate what he did in 2018 after a "down" 2019 season. It won't be easy for McCaffrey to end his career at Tomlinson's level once all is said and done, but he's on the right path to improving on who could arguably be considered the best fantasy rusher of all time.
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