Wild Card Round Busts? Players To Consider Avoiding In DFS

January 3, 2020

Keith Hernandez analyzes NFL players to consider sitting or benching for wild-card weekend. These are his top potential fantasy football lineup busts to avoid starting.

The 2019 NFL regular season may be over, but fantasy football will continue into the postseason. If your teams disappointed you in season-long leagues, here's your chance to start the new year right and win some (or all) of your money back. Most of the fantasy action in the playoffs will be through DFS tournaments, but there are other formats out there that let you pick players for the entirety of the postseason. Here are some strategies to help you win in those setups.

We'll strictly focus on DFS weekly tournaments here. That means players from the Ravens, 49ers, Chiefs and Packers will be excluded this week, since they all have first-round byes and won't be playing until the Divisional Round next weekend. Forget about which teams you think will make it past wild-card weekend. This is all about the matchups and player prices.

Below are six potential DFS busts for the wild-card round of the 2020 playoffs.

Potential Quarterback Busts for Wild-Card Weekend

Deshaun Watson - Houston Texans Vs. Bills 

Out of eight starting QBs for wild-card weekend, Watson comes in priced fourth at DraftKings at $6,400. While Watson is one of the most athletic signal-callers in football and can use his legs for extra yardage, there are plenty of red flags. He's completed fewer than 20 passes in five of the last six games and hasn't had a 300-yard game since Oct. 20 against the Colts.

Houston's offense just hasn't been the same without receiver Will Fuller (groin) either, and he's a long shot for Saturday's game. If Fuller is inactive, Watson's bust prospects will increase. He's facing a Buffalo defense that allowed the third fewest fantasy points per game (16.2) to opposing quarterbacks in the regular season.

Others: Josh Allen (@ Texans)

Potential Running Back Busts for Wild-Card Weekend

Derrick Henry - Tennessee Titans @ Patriots

Henry is the heart and soul of this Titans run-first offense, so he's a virtual lock for 20-plus touches in this game. He's been the best fantasy running back in the second half of the season once again, going over 100 yards rushing in five of the last six games while also scoring 10 touchdowns in that span. It's why he's the most expensive DFS back at DraftKings at $8,200 for wild-card weekend.

That leaves him open to disappointment, however. Even though New England isn't the offensive juggernaut we've become accustomed to with Tom Brady at the helm, their defense is perhaps the best it's ever been under head coach Bill Belichick. Over the whole year, the Patriots D has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game (11.5) to running backs, including just one touchdown allowed on the ground and one through the air. Can Henry use sheer force to buck that trend? It's typically not smart to bet against Belichick, Brady and the Pats, especially in the postseason and at home.

Miles Sanders - Philadelphia Eagles Vs. Seahawks

Even though Sanders exited the Week 17 game against the Giants with an ankle injury, he's still the fourth most expensive back at DraftKings ($6,200) this weekend. He's expected to play Sunday, but the rookie has yet to practice this week. He's been impressive with a 4.6 yard-per-carry average, 509 receiving yards and three touchdowns in place of an injured Jordan Howard this year. Seattle's run defense isn't anything special, but how healthy is Sanders? And how much might Boston Scott -- three touchdowns in Week 17 -- spell him?

Others: Dalvin Cook (@ Saints), Boston Scott (Vs. Seahawks)

Potential Wide Receiver Busts for Wild-Card Weekend

A.J. Brown - Tennessee Titans @ Patriots

The second-round rookie has been impressive in his first NFL season with 52 catches for 1,051 yards and eight touchdowns. Brown also finished the regular season strong with three 100-yard performances in the last four weeks, including four touchdowns in that span.

While likely drawing shadow coverage from All-Pro cornerback Stephon Gilmore on Saturday, however, don't expect Brown to justify his $7,400 price tag at DraftKings. Belichick and the Patriots have a knack for slowing down rookies, and their defense allowed 15.0 fantasy points per game (lowest in NFL) to wideouts in 2019, including just four receiving TDs.

Tyler Lockett - Seattle Seahawks @ Eagles

On paper, this is a great matchup for Lockett; the Eagles allowed the fourth most fantasy points per game (28.8) to opposing pass-catchers in 2019. But what makes Lockett a potential bust at his $7,200 cost at DraftKings is the fact that he has seen double-digit targets in a game this year just three times, with the last instance coming all the way back on Nov. 3. The 27-year-old surely has the talent to get behind this secondary and put up a huge game, but he also has just as much of a chance of not finding the end zone and flopping for those that take him in DFS.

Others: DeAndre Hopkins (Vs. Bills), Adam Thielen (@ Saints)

Potential Tight End Busts for Wild-Card Weekend

Zach Ertz - Philadelphia Eagles Vs. Seahawks

Ertz, who is dealing with a fractured rib and a lacerated kidney, has yet to be cleared for contact in practice and might sit out this weekend. Even if he does suit up, the 29-year-old could very well be used mostly as a decoy. It doesn't make much sense to spend the top price at tight end ($6,000) on a guy that could just be diverting attention on the field, if he even plays at all. Ignore Ertz's 12-91-1 line against Seattle earlier this year and consider Dallas Goedert for $800 less.

Others: Jared Cook (Vs. Vikings)

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