Break The Slate: DraftKings NFL DFS Lineup Picks - Week 15

December 15, 2019

Joe Nicely's DraftKings NFL DFS picks and lineup sleepers for Week 15. His top daily fantasy football recommendations to target for DraftKings DFS contests.

Hi RotoBallers and thanks for joining me for Week 15! We once again have a jam-packed slate that includes a massive nine games with projected point totals of over 45. This means that there are lots of strong options on the board this week, but as a result we can expect very high scores to be needed to win DFS tournaments. Thanks for joining me here at RotoBaller, let's dig in and find some huge scores again this week!

These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 15.

Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!

DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Week 15 Picks

Deshaun Watson - HOU @ TEN ($6,800)

On paper, this looks like one of the best games to target in DFS tournaments this week, as we have a tight spread, high projected point total, and tons of explosive players on the field. On the Texans side of the ball, Deshaun Watson has as much fantasy upside as any QB in football, as evidenced by his four outings of over 30 DK points. Watson is coming off back-to-back 28-plus point performances and he's in a great spot this week against a Tennessee defense that is 25th in the NFL in yards allowed per pass.

Kyler Murray - CLE @ ARI ($5,600)

This is a great "buy low" opportunity on Arizona's rookie QB Kyler Murray. Murray heads into this home matchup against the Browns at just $5.6k...his lowest DK salary since Week 2 of the season. The price reduction is a result of his pedestrian outings recently against the tough defenses of Pittsburgh and LA, but this game against the Browns offers Murray's most "beatable" matchup since a 30.8-DK point outing against the Bucs in Week 10. To be transparent, Cleveland has been fairly solid against the pass as of late and isn't a secondary that we normally want to go out of our way to target, but the upside his there for Murray at this price, as he's attempted over 30 passes in 11 of 13 games for this high-volume Cards offense.

DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Week 15 Picks

Saquon Barkley - MIA @ NYG ($7,700)

This feels like a "now or never" spot for Saquon. There's not any stats behind that analysis, but common sense tells me that Barkley is just simply too good not to produce a big game at some point before this season ends. If (and his recent output makes this a true "if") he is going to do that, there's no better spot than this week against the Miami Dolphins, a team with one of the worst defensive units in the league. Miami has allowed the most rushing yards to RBs in the NFL and New York (in a rarity) is a home favorite against the Dolphins. Barkley is averaging just over 17 carries and almost five targets per game over the Giants last three, and this week presents a matchup in which he should finally be able to capitalize on that volume.

Chris Carson - SEA @ CAR ($7,700)

It's been an up-and-down season for Seahawks RB Chris Carson, as he appeared to have a stranglehold on the job before "fumbling" away the opportunity. Carson's butterfingers brought Rashad Penny firmly into the mix. However, with Penny suffering a season-ending injury last week, Carson should move right back into a bellcow role for Seattle. If we look at his usage from roughly the first 10 games of the season, we can expect at least 20 touches for Carson in this spot against a Panthers Defense that has been slaughtered on the ground. Carolina is DEAD LAST in the league in DK points allowed to the RB position, has allowed 21 rushing TDs to opposing RBs, and is 31st in the NFL in both total rushing yards and yards per carry allowed. Seattle enters every week with a "run first" game plan and that philosophy should especially hold true in this matchup.

Phillip Lindsay - DEN @ KC ($5,800) & Raheem Mostert - ATL @ SF ($5,200)

I wanted to at least touch on these two guys, as they are both well worth consideration in tournaments this week. Both Phillip Lindsay and Raheem Mostert have slate-breaking ability, but both have an extremely unpredictable amount of volume from week to week, so a bet on either/or is a bet on their talent and extreme efficiency. I've been banging the Lindsay drum for several weeks with underwhelming results, but I'm still interested due to his matchup against a Chiefs Defense that is last in the league in DK points allowed to the RB position. As for Mostert, he's basically played his way into playing time by being unbelievably productive with limited opportunities. Niners coach Kyle Shanahan even admitted this week that Mostert has given the team "no choice" but to continue giving him work. I wouldn't go overboard in buying into the "coach speak", but Mostert does draw an intriguing matchup against a Falcons Defense that has been mediocre against running backs, but very bad overall.

DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Week 15 Picks

Kenny Golladay - TB @ DET ($7,200)

If I'm being honest, I don't love the higher price tag here for Kenny Golladay. However, we are looking for slate breakers, and the Lions wideout has a matchup against the Tampa Bay Bucs that has an excellent chance of producing some DFS fireworks for us. Despite Matt Stafford's absence, Golladay just keeps on rolling. With David Blough stepping in at QB for Detroit's last two, "Baby Tron" has still posted impressive stats, combining for 216 yards and two TDs on 10 catches in Blough's two starts. He gets to tee off against a Bucs defense that strongly funnels volume to the air and ranks DEAD LAST in the NFL in DraftKings points allowed to opposing WRs. With running mate Marvin Jones Jr headed to IR, we should see Golladay get all the work he can handle in this pristine spot.

Darius Slayton - MIA @ NYG ($4,700)

This is our second highlighted Giants player of the week, which is kinda gross in and of itself. However, New York wide receiver Darius Slayton is massively underpriced at just $4.7k this week in a smash spot against the Miami Dolphins. We should be thankful for DK's early pricing, because Slayton's price decreased by $400 on the heels of a huge 35.4-point game on Monday night. The Dolphins are 30th in the NFL in DK points allowed to the WR position and have relinquished 23 receiving TDs to opposing wideouts, the most in the league. Slayton's floor is fairly solid, as he's received target counts of 8/9/7/15 over New York's last four and, as he exhibited in Week 14, he has tournament-winning upside.

Breshad Perriman - TB @ DET ($4,500)

We've already touched on Detroit wide receiver Kenny Golladay in this week's article, but I'm also very interested in the other side of this matchup. As if this Bucs offense wasn't already the perfect setup, they will now be without stud wideout Mike Evans for the remainder of the season. Evans accounted for a huge chunk of usage in this pass-happy system...usage that will be now be inherited by other Bucs pass catchers. The natural inclination here is to head straight for Chris Godwin - and you can definitely do that, so don't feel that I'm low on Godwin - but for the purposes of this article (and salary savings), let's click on Breshad Perriman at just $4.5k. Perriman is a former first-round pick that has bounced around the league over the course of his career, despite possessing obvious athleticism. With Evans out, Perriman will slide into a concrete role beside Godwin as Tampa's number-two receiver. This comes at a time when Perriman has already put together his two best games as a Buc in recent weeks, having combined for 157 yards and a TD on eight catches over Tampa's last two. He draws a dreamy matchup against a Lions secondary that has been routinely torched as of late and has relinquished over 2,300 yards and 13 TDs to the WR position.

DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Week 15 Picks

Zach Ertz - PHI @ WAS ($6,000)

Nothing fancy here, just lots and lots of expected volume for Zach Ertz. With the Philly receiving corps basically non-existent due to a crazy amount of injuries, Ertz is coming off a 13-target game against the Giants last week, his fourth game with double-digit targets over the Eagles last five. His matchup against Washington is soft, as the Redskins stand 24th in the league in DK points allowed to the TE position. This Philly offense hasn't been as potent as we've seen in the past, but Ertz has remained a consistent usage monster and leads the league in TE targets with 119. If you can find the salary to splurge at tight end, he offers a very high floor and always has the potential to pop off for a big outing.

Tyler Higbee - LAR @ CAR ($3,900)

I wrote up Tyler Higbee in this article a couple of weeks ago in advance of his matchup against the Arizona Cardinals, and while Higbee's matchup against Dallas is nowhere near that type of slam dunk, he does remain very viable this week, as he's played unbelievably well in the absence of Gerald Everett. It seems as though this Rams offense has finally realized what they have in Higbee. He's been targeted a massive 19 times in LA's last two games, and has produced to the tune of 14 catches for 223 yards and a TD. This is a "ride the hot hand" type of play and the usage for this Rams offense has been frustratingly sporadic, but the price tag is attractive and the Cowboys Defense does filter targets to tight ends, having allowed the tenth-most DK points in the NFL to the position.

O.J. Howard - TB @ DET ($3,500)

This was supposed to be a monster season for OJ Howard...but things haven't exactly went according to plan for the talented third-year tight end, as Howard has battled injuries that have kept him off the field, ineffectiveness when he does play, and what seems to be a never-ending residence in Coach Bruce Arians' doghouse. However, things might finally be looking up, as he's been targeted five and six times over the Bucs last two games - the most targets he's received over any two-game stretch this season. With Mike Evans now out of the lineup, Tampa might have no choice but to continue and perhaps even increase Howard's usage against a Lions Defense that has been struggling in every aspect. We've been down this road before with Howard, but his price is enticing and he has tournament-winning upside that hasn't been flashed this year.

DraftKings DFS Defenses - Week 15 Picks

Seattle Seahawks Defense - SEA @ CAR ($3,700)

Remember when some people thought that Kyle Allen was a superior option to Cam Newton? Yeah...how's that workin' out? Allen has been a human turnover machine over the past month. The second-year QB has fumbled a hard-to-wrap-your-head-around SIX times since Week 10 and has thrown seven picks over the same time frame. It's a great spot for take advantage of with this Seahawks defensive unit that has failed to truly standout, but plays sound, fundamental football.

LA Rams Defense - LAR @ DAL ($2,900)

While everybody has been busy focusing on the Rams offensive issues, their defense has quietly been playing very well. Since Week 10, this Rams D/ST is averaging just under 12 DK points per game. Outside of a 45-point letdown against the Ravens, LA hasn't allowed more than 11 real points since Week 6! They travel to Dallas for a less-than-great matchup, but this Cowboys offense has been visibly sputtering as of late.

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