Break The Slate: NFL DFS DraftKings Lineup Picks - Week 7

October 20, 2019

The top daily fantasy football lineup picks for DraftKings in Week 7 of 2019. Joe Nicely's NFL DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.

Matt Ryan. Kirk Cousins. Carlos Hyde. Stefon Diggs. Austin Hooper. Those are just some of the players that were featured in last week's Break The Slate. Thanks for joining me here at RotoBaller, let's dig in and find some more huge scores this week!

These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 7.

Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, lets Break The Slate together!

DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Week 7 Picks

Kyler Murray - ARI @ NYG ($6,700)

Kyler Murray is starting to show why the Arizona Cardinals felt he was worthy of the first overall pick in the draft. Murray is quickly establishing himself as a strong DFS option in this high volume Cards offense and showcased the upside he possesses in Week 6 by throwing for 340 yards and 3 TDs against Atlanta in what resulted in a 31.8 point day on DraftKings. Murray doesn't get to square off against the Falcons defense again this week, but his matchup against the New York Giants is a very good one. The Giants are 31st in the NFL in yards allowed per pass and have relinquished the second-most passing yards in the league (1,822 yards). In addition to the soft matchup he faces through the air, Murray hasn't been shy about attacking defenses with his legs. He trails only Lamar Jackson in QB rushing yards and has totaled 238 yards and 2 TDs on the ground this season. With a tight spread, projected point total of around 50, and a Giants team that allows opponents to run around 65 plays per game, Murray has a great volume-driven opportunity to post a tournament-winning type of score.

Matt Ryan - LAR @ ATL ($6,300)

I might need to enter a 12-step program for my Matt Ryan addiction...but why would anyone want to get off this guy now? 'Matty Ice' has thrown for over 300 yards in every game this season and has topped 30 DK points in his last two starts, which has resulted in his DK price DECREASING by $100! There are a couple of key ingredients to Ryan's success...the Falcons are the most pass-happy offense in the NFL and Ryan leads the NFL in pass attempts at 258 which has resulted in 2,011 passing yards and a league-leading 15 TDs. One reason the BC product gets so much volume is Atlanta's horrendous defense. The Falcons are dead last in the NFL in points and TDs allowed, which basically forces Ryan and the offense to remain aggressive throughout games. He gets a Week 7 home matchup against a Rams defense that is experiencing some big changes on the back end of their scuffling defensive unit and this game carries the highest projected point total on the main slate.

DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Week 7 Picks

Dalvin Cook - MIN @ DET ($8,000)

There's really no reason to get cute at the RB position this week, so let's lead off with Dalvin Cook. I highlighted the great spot for the Vikings passing attack in this column last week, but I expect the pendulum to swing back to Cook and the ground game in Week 7. The Lions secondary has proven themselves to be low-key solid this season, while this Detroit run D that closed out 2018 in trending form has struggled in 2019. The Lions are 27th in the NFL in yards allowed per carry and have allowed 321 yards receiving to opposing RBs. This all bodes well for Cook, who has been one of the most dynamic backs in the league this season, and is averaging 18 carries per game and gaining 5.4 yards per tote, in addition to being a legitimate pass catching threat. You can pencil him in for over 20 touches in this matchup.

Leonard Fournette - JAX @ CIN ($7,000)

It's hard to categorize the bruising Fournette as a 'slate breaker', but the big back out of LSU is receiving the type of workload that we rarely see in today's NFL. Fournette just doesn't come off the field for this Jags team and is playing a staggering 91.4% of Jacksonville's offensive snaps, which only trails Carolina's Christian McCaffery (who is on the field for around 96% of that team's snaps). The amount of time Fournette spends on the field is impressive, but what has been unexpected is his role as a pass catcher. In addition to his 115 rushing attempts that stands third in the league, Fournette has also been targeted 36 times out of the backfield this season, which is more targets than guys like Le'Veon Bell, James Conner, and Todd Gurley. His newfound role as a pass catcher helps to pad his floor, but he probably won't have much trouble posting a nice day against a Bengals defense that is dead last in the NFL in yards allowed per carry and DK points allowed to opposing RBs. His combination of usage and matchup makes Fournette one of the top plays on the Week 7 slate.

Chase Edmonds - ARI @ NYG ($4,700)

First things first...this is strictly a 'keep an eye on David Johnson's injury status' recommendation. We were in a similar situation last week when DJ popped up on the injury report with a bad back, while this week it's an ankle issue that has us keeping tabs on Johnson. Like last week, I'll be keeping my finger on the Chase Edmonds-trigger if DJ were to be ruled out. Edmonds has demonstrated an attention-grabbing level of explosiveness in his limited role and I'd love to fire him up against the Giants in the event of Johnson's absence.

DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Week 7 Picks

TY Hilton - HOU @ IND ($5,900)

With no high-priced wide receivers that are in slate-breaking spots this week (though a strong argument can be made for Cooper Kupp against ATL), I'm going all the way down the salary scale to Indy's TY Hilton at the almost-criminal price of $5,900. We all know that the Colts were dealt a big blow when Andrew Luck retired, with Hilton being the most obvious victim, but TY has remained surprisingly productive with Jacoby Brissett at the helm of this Indy offense. This week we get what should be a now-healthy Hilton coming off a bye week against a Texans team that he has traditionally tormented throughout his career. While Houston is starting to string together some wins, their secondary is still struggling mightily. The Texans rank in the bottom-five in the NFL in DK points, yards, and TDs allowed to opposing wide receivers, and are fresh off a pasting at the hands of Tyreek Hill. This isn't the explosive offense that it was when Andrew Luck was under center, but I look for the talented Hilton to get 8-10 looks in this very beatable matchup.

Calvin Ridley - LAR @ ATL ($5,300)

Looking for someone to pair with Matt Ryan? Calvin Ridley is a great option this week. With Jalen Ramsey looking probable to suit up for the Rams, there's a very strong likelihood that he will shadow Julio Jones. This should ramp up the volume for Atlanta's secondary receivers, with the explosive Ridley being the prime beneficiary. The second-year receiver might not have the type of floor that we normally want, but we're looking for 'slate breakers' right? Ridley has certainly proven himself capable of putting up monster scores in his short career and his aDOT of 14.3 and seven receptions of 20-plus yards this season is very intriguing against this Rams secondary that is now without both Marcus Peters and Aquib Talib. We've already touched on Atlanta's staggering pass volume when discussing Matt Ryan earlier in the article and Ramsey's presence should only increase Ridley's already-steady usage (he's averaged seven targets per game in ATL's last three) this week in a game that has 'shootout' written all over it.

DK Metcalf - BAL @ SEA ($4,800)

It's tough to trust rookie wide receivers in the NFL - especially one in this Seattle offense that strives to run the ball - but I am intrigued by DK Metcalf this week. We all knew about Metcalf's freakish size and speed coming out of college, but there were reasonable concerns about his route running and actual football ability. Those concerns are slowly dissipating, as Seattle has wisely let Metcalf run a limited route tree that maximizes his strengths, while hiding his weaknesses. I expect Baltimore's Marlon Humphrey to shadow Tyler Lockett this week, which should open up some opportunities for Metcalf. He'll most likely face a combination of newly-acquired Marcus Peters (who has been a toast factory for the Rams this season) and 33-year-old Brandon Carr. Neither will be able to keep up with Metcalf's blazing speed on go routes. He's highly-volatile, but he should see a bump in usage against a Ravens D that is 25th in the NFL in yards allowed per pass and susceptible to chunk plays through the air.

DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Week 7 Picks

Evan Engram - ARI @ NYG ($6,500)

If a tight end has a pulse and is playing the Cardinals, chances are I'll be rostering them. Despite missing New York's last game with a knee injury, Evan Engram remains fourth in the NFL in TE targets at 48 and leads all NFL pass catchers with 10 red zone targets, which he's converted into 33 catches for 373 yards and 2 TDs. Engram is running pass routes on nearly 92% of NY's snaps and has to be licking his chops for this matchup against a Cards defense that ranks dead last in the league in basically every conceivable category when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, including DK Points, yards, and TDs allowed to the position. This is a true smash spot for Engram.

Mark Andrews - BAL @ SEA ($4,900)

I was back and forth between Mark Andrews and Austin Hooper here, but since we've already highlighted a couple of Falcons this week let's dive into Andrews for a minute. The Baltimore TE is having a big season and has tallied 410 receiving yards and three TDs despite battling injuries. He's Lamar Jackson's favorite receiver and has been targeted at least seven times in all of Baltimore's games this season, while running a pass route on a massive 96.2% of his snaps. The once-feared Seahawks defense is actually a good spot for Andrews, as Seattle has yielded 405 yards and 3 TDs to opposing tight ends this season, while allowing the third-most DK points in the NFL to the TE position.

DraftKings DFS Defenses - Week 7 Picks

Buffalo Bills - MIA @ BUF ($4,300)

Nothing fancy here, as the Bills are one of the best 'real world' defenses in the NFL. They are massive home favorites this week against a Miami offense that has (as expected) been a complete and total disaster this season. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been named the Week 7 starter, and while "FitzMagic" is fun and all, there's a reason he's never lasted as a starter. Fitz is a turnover waiting to happen under the best circumstances and this atrocious Miami offensive line certainly doesn't qualify as a good circumstance.

San Francisco 49ers Defense - SF @ WAS ($4,100)

I normally want to save salary at D/ST, but this is a week that I'll be willing to pay up for either the aforementioned Bills or this red-hot San Fran defense. The Niners have allowed the third-fewest points in the NFL this season and head into this matchup having allowed just 10 total points over their last two games. With Richard Sherman anchoring a pass defense that is first in the league in yards allowed per pass and Nick Bosa sparking an aggressive and improving pass-rush corps, the Niners should have no trouble with a Redskins offense that is in the bottom-five in the NFL in total yards and has committed 11 turnovers this season.

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