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Gage Bridgford (@GbridgfordNFL) identifies quarterbacks to watch in Week 4 based on the opposing pass rush defense. These QBs could be players to fade and avoid or to start and stream in fantasy football leagues.
In Week 4, there are some great matchups for quarterbacks. several players are getting good defenses against them, but they are playing them at home where life is a little easier. Looking through the matchups, we probably have another four or five guys that are in the plus matchup category.
There are still a few matchups to avoid especially when it comes to the top quarterbacks this year. A lot of this comes down to looking at pressure rates combined with how mobile or immobile a quarterback is. If you get a guy like Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Phillip Rivers who doesn't run a lot against a good defensive line, that's a bad matchup.
In fantasy, the margin for error is razor-thin. A player could do nothing all year, but, if they get the right matchup, they could break out. Look at Philadelphia Eagles running back Jordan Howard who put up three touchdowns and over 100 total yards on Thursday night. He had a good matchup, and he took advantage of it.
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Joe Flacco vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Last week, against the Green Bay Packers, Denver Broncos quarterback Joe Flacco was harrassed repeatedly, and he was sacked six times on the day. In Week 4, he gets to go home, but he'll be facing a Jacksonville Jaguars Defense that leads the NFL in sacks with 13, and, even if they aren't getting the sack, they're getting around the quarterback. Their 11.2 percent adjusted sack rate is number one in the NFL through three weeks of play.
For Denver, they have struggled to protect Flacco, who is not the most mobile of quarterbacks. Through three weeks, they rank 26th in the NFL as they've given up 11 sacks with an adjusted sack rate of 9.4 percent. In Week 2, against the Chicago Bears, the altitude slowed the pass rush down a little especially late in the game. However, unless tackles Garrett Boles and Elijah Wilkinson can get their act together, both are ranked outside the top 40 at their position, Flacco will be on the ground a lot Sunday afternoon.
Deshaun Watson vs Carolina Panthers
For the second week in a row, Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson finds himself on this list. Despite the addition of left tackle Laremy Tunsil, Watson has still been under pressure far too often. Watson has been sacked 12 times through three weeks which is the third-most in the NFL. Over the last two seasons, he has been sacked 74 times which is by far the most in the league. In Week 4, the matchup isn't likely to let that number remain idle.
The Carolina Panthers are fourth in the NFL with 12 sacks, and they're averaging a sack or intentional grounding penalty every 10 snaps, which is fourth in the league.
Mitchell Trubisky vs Minnesota Vikings
Last week, Chicago Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky showed that he can be a competent quarterback when the game is simplified for him, and he doesn't have to think as much. He had 231 passing yards and three touchdowns on the night. The problem with the game being simplified for him is that the Minnesota Vikings Defense that he will be playing are hardly simple. In addition to that, he'll be without wide receiver Taylor Gabriel, who caught all three of his touchdowns last week, and two of his starting offensive linemen are questionable with injuries.
On the Minnesota side, they've gotten back to what head coach Mike Zimmer wants to do. They run the ball a ton, and they play suffocating defense. They rank eighth in the NFL with 10 sacks on the season, and they'll be looking to add to that this week. Chicago has allowed eight sacks thus far, which is a bottom half of the league number. Mitch has been inconsistent, and he struggled against the Packers' defense in Week 1. He should have similar struggles this week.
Dishonorable mention: Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen vs New England Patriots
That's More Like It
Matthew Stafford vs Kansas City Chiefs
For the second straight week, Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford has a strong matchup. The Kansas City Chiefs are consistently looking to outscore their opponents while the defense is mostly an afterthought. The Lions have allowed Stafford to be sacked just three times on the year, and he's being sacked on less three percent of his dropbacks. In a game that he'll likely be dropping back a lot, that's a good number to see.
On the flip side, as I said, the defense is mostly an afterthought for Kansas City. They have just seven sacks on the year which has them 20th in league rankings. Detroit's running game has struggled to get off the ground, but they could try to get that rolling against a Chiefs Defense that allows a league-high 6.2 yards per carry. This slows down the pass rush, and it gives Stafford even more time to sit back and pick apart a struggling secondary.
Teddy Bridgewater vs Dallas Cowboys
New Orleans Saints quarterback Teddy Bridgewater had some help in his first start against the Seattle Seahawks, but he was largely effective during the team's win. He had two touchdowns on the day, and he was not sacked once. His offensive line only allowed him to be hit twice in 27 dropbacks. They've only given up three sacks on the year, and they aren't likely to add a ton to that number in Week 4.
The Dallas Cowboys Defense has played well to start the season, although a part of that is the quality of opponent that they've played. Defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli schemes the defense together well, but he hasn't been able to generate a ton of pressure. They only have five sacks on the season which is tied for the fourth-fewest in the league.
Tom Brady @ Buffalo Bills
New England Patriots Tom Brady has been mostly lights out so far this season. New England will be facing their toughest test thus far on the road against the 3-0 Buffalo Bills, but he's still got a great matchup in terms of how much he'll be hitting the ground in Orchard Park. The Patriots have allowed just four sacks on the season, and one of those was on backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham in garbage time. Brady gets the ball out quick to pick apart defenses, and that's not changing this week.
For Buffalo, the strength of their defense is on the back end in the secondary. They only have seven sacks on the season. In two games against New England last year, they only registered three sacks on Brady. Brady appears to be playing even better this season, and, with wide receivers Josh Gordon and Phillip Dorsett playing well, he has even more weapons to throw to while avoiding the pressure.
Honorable mention: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes @ Detroit Lions
More Week 3 Lineup Prep
