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Steve Janik's NCAA college football betting picks for 9/21/19. He analyzes CFB Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets including spreads and over/unders.
Week 3 was a tough one to swallow with some real close calls, but overall it was a great week for college football betting.
- Week Three Picks: 1-2 (33%)
- 2019-20 Picks: 8-3 (73%)
We're here to dive into the numbers, teams, and picks setup for this weekend in college football. I could honestly find a way to bet on every game but instead I scour the large slate of college football games and pick which ones present the most value for you.
Follow me on Twitter @sgjanik_6 to chat about football and my picks. I’m also on the Action App @sgjanik6 where I’ll post all the picks below and more this season. Here’s the motto we’ll take through the year: Bet. Sweat. Keep the wallet wet.
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Boston College at Rutgers (+8)
O/U: 57.5
AJ Dillon is one of the top backs in college football and he's off to a great start in 2019 with 318 yards and four touchdowns through three games. Yes, Boston College fell apart against Kansas last week, but it was an eye-opening game for the Eagles. Quarterback Anthony Brown has been solid through the air and can make plays with his feet when needed. This BC offense averages 75 plays per game, but that's because their defense has had some hiccups.
Rutgers' starting quarterback McLane Carter is in concussion protocol and there's a chance he misses this game. If he can't go, Art Sitkowski will get the nod, but it truthfully shouldn't matter who starts for the Scarlet Knights. Boston College's defense struggled against Kansas, but the only playmaker that Rutgers houses is running back Isaih Pacheco with 198 yards and four scores, which all came in their Week 1 win over UMass.
Since Steve Addazio took over at BC in 2013, the total in games following a loss has gone under 20 times in 33 contests. Just a year ago, in BC road games, the under hit in four of five games, while the total went under in four of seven Rutgers 2018 home games. The Scarlet Knights aren't very good and their quarterback being questionable makes things even worse. I see Boston College getting an early lead and keeping Rutgers off the field with their stout ground attack.
Pick: Under 57.5
UCF at Pitt (+12)
O/U: 58
This UCF offense is special and can put up points at will. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel has tossed for 719 yards with nine touchdowns and no interceptions. Meanwhile, the running game is stout as four players have rushed for over 140 yards with five finding pay dirt at least once. Their scoring differential is 155-59 through three games. The Golden Knights are built to score, and score often. While their defense still has some work to do, this game against Pitt is a good spot for the unit to find themselves.
Pitt nearly pulled off another upset of rival Penn State last week, but couldn't make it happen due to poor play calling and inability to establish the run. Kenny Pickett threw for over 300 yards for the second consecutive game, but didn't find the end zone once. On the other hand, the defense has proven to be able to stop offenses before they get going, despite missing two of their top defensive lineman. They only allowed PSU to throw for only 222 yards and no touchdowns, so there is a real shot that this Pitt defense can slow up UCF.
In coach Josh Heupel's first year at the helm, UCF went 3-1 against the spread when favored on the road. Pitt was 4-2 ATS at home last season but they've lost both of their top rushers from a season ago, and this offense is scoring just 14.7 points per game. Pitt surprised people last week, and even though they're at home, get UCF to cover before this rises any higher.
Pick: UCF -12
Washington at BYU (+6.5)
O/U: 52
Washington is an interesting team in a Power 5 conference that is often overlooked. Georgia transfer Jacob Eason has been solid through a 2-1 string of games, throwing for 773 yards and seven touchdowns. Defensively, they've done an "okay" job getting to the quarterback, with eight sacks through three games. Aside from scoring more points than their opponent, getting to the quarterback will be priority number one in this game.
BYU is riding high off a double-overtime 29-26 victory over USC last week. The "Mormon Manziel" Zach Wilson has just two passing touchdowns and one on the ground but BYU believes in his ability to make plays happen. South Carolina grad transfer Ty'Son Williams is in his first year in Provo and has done well, averaging 5.5 yards per carry with three touchdowns. However, their defense has had some real trouble stopping the run, allowing 225 yards per game.
LaVell Edwards Stadium will be rocking on Saturday afternoon, and rightfully so, after back-to-back big wins over big-name programs. However, the points haven't exactly been flying in Provo since coach Kalani Sitake took over in 2016. Since then, when BYU is at home, the total has gone under 14 times in 20 games, while the total has gone over just once in six games where the Cougars were considered home underdogs. With Washington on the road last season, the under hit four times in five games, while it has hit 16 times in 26 road games since Chris Petersen took over in 2014. This will be a great game, but BYU will be worn down and Washington's offense will have a tough time in Provo.
Pick: Under 52
