Is Kirk Cousins Killing His Receivers?

September 19, 2019

Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins is struggling through two games, and his star receivers, Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs, are suffering. Gage Bridgford looks at how the long-term value of these top WRs is affected due to the struggles of Captain Kirk.

Through two games last season, Minnesota Vikings receivers Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen had combined for 42 catches, 404 yards, and four touchdowns. Through two games this season, they have just 11 catches, 204 yards, and two touchdowns. Quarterback Kirk Cousins hasn't been doing them favors, and the argument could be made that he's killing them in fantasy. However, is it really his fault?

When the Vikings handed Cousins a contract for three years and $84 million that was fully guaranteed, a lot of heads turned. As Cousins has failed to fully enter the next echelon of quarterbacks, it's beginning to look even worse. The team effectively took the ball out of his hands as he had just 10 attempts in Week 1.

On Sunday, against the Green Bay Packers, Cousins got to air the ball out more. He had 32 attempts on the day, but he wasn't connecting frequently. Can the dynamic duo make up for their average quarterback play, or will they see their value dragged down?

An Offensive O-Line Isn't Helping

During Sunday's game, Cousins was rushed on 12 of his dropbacks, and he was hit five times on the day. The Packers weren't having to load the box with blitzers, as they only blitzed on seven dropbacks, and they were still getting pressure on Kirk. For reference, the Vikings blitzed quarterback Aaron Rodgers 13 times yet only registered seven hurries. When Cousins has a clean pocket, he's able to make good throws, but when he's rushed, he crumbles under pressure.

On the long touchdown pass to Diggs, the Packers brought five rushers, but the pocket was kept clean. Cousins stood in and delivered a ball on the money. In the running game, the offensive line is able to get to the second level and give running back Dalvin Cook running lanes to get free and make big plays. That's great for him, but it doesn't help Cousins in the passing game which in turn hurts the stud receivers on the outside.

Run-Heavy Offense Limits Opportunities

Cousins only threw the ball 10 times in Week 1. They were up big, and they didn't need him to throw more often than that. On Sunday, they were down by 21 before 20 minutes had gone off the clock, and the offense hadn't gotten anything rolling. Despite that, the running backs still totaled 25 carries on the day. They were efficient with them, as the team averaged 7.3 yards per carry, but they were running time off the clock and limiting chances for the receivers.

Last season, Thielen and Diggs each played over 83 percent of the snaps, which Diggs likely would have played more if it weren't for injury. In Week 1, when they blew out the Atlanta Falcons, Diggs played just 60 percent of the snaps. If the game had been close on Sunday, they likely would have played a similar snap percentage. Instead, playing from behind, Thielen played 98%, and Diggs played 89%. Between an elite defense that doesn't allow a ton of points and a run-first offense that slows the pace down, the receivers and Cousins may not get the opportunity to get in sync.

Cousins is Just an Average QB

The Vikings paid Cousins to be an elite quarterback. Outside of one season where he threw for 4,917 yards, and 25 touchdowns, Cousins has never been the guy to put up crazy numbers. Cousins has never thrown for more than 30 touchdowns, and he remains a risk-averse player, as his most interceptions as a starter is only 13. This offense features just Diggs and Thielen as the receivers that get targets, but there isn't enough volume to feature both of them.

Thus far, Cousins is completing just 52.4 percent of his passes, and he has a quarterback rating of just 74.3. Diggs and Thielen are one of the best wide receiver duos in the NFL, but they aren't receiving the volume of targets necessary to be the duo of must-starts that they were billed to be coming into the year. The one area that may be the saving grace of these two is the fact that, when Cousins is throwing the ball, he's throwing it deep. Among qualifying quarterbacks, he's seventh in average intended air yards. As we saw Sunday, he may only connect on one throw with his receivers, but that one throw could be a long one.

Moving forward, the Vikings are not going to change their style of play as long as Cook is healthy. With that in mind, the receiver that will be the more reliable one to start is Thielen. He plays more snaps, and he sees more targets as he has 11 to Diggs' nine. Thielen and Cousins established a connection last season which will maintain some steady value this season but neither of them is going to be in the upper echelon of wide receivers year.

More Fantasy Football Analysis