FAAB Bidding - Week 3 Waiver Wire Targets

September 17, 2019

In fantasy football leagues that use FAAB (free agent acquisition budget), it can be hard to know how much money to spend on key players at QB, RB, WR, or TE. Nick Mariano gives fantasy owners his recommendations on how to spend FAAB for Week 3.

Assisting our famous waiver wire pickups list, and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB).

As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These auction values are here to provide a baseline to understand roughly how much you should be targeting to spend on a particular player. If you want to utilize a chunk of your budget on a guy you believe in then you do you. However, players will continue to get injured and other guys replace them and their production all the time, every year. You only have so much FAAB money, spend it as wisely as possible.

With two weeks in the books, we start to see hot and cold starts as real. Trends and usage patterns have begun to develop in earnest, and yet, small samples and matchup dependence are quite relevant when evaluating the games to date. Lucky for you, we provide some heavy lifting with our FAAB auction bidding recommendations for Week 3 below.

FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Quarterbacks

Josh Allen (QB, BUF) - FAAB Bid: 2-3%

40% owned

Allen completed 19-of-30 throws for 253 yards and a “passing” touchdown, which was a pitch to Isaiah McKenzie. Results are results, though! He also had a rushing touchdown on a designed sweep, giving him two aerial TDs and two ground TDs through two games. He now gets a Bengals Defense that was just torched by San Francisco, making him a solid streamer in 12-teamers.

Mason Rudolph (QB, PIT) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%

2% owned

Rudolph guided Pittsburgh’s sleigh in the second half of Week 2 after Ben Roethlisberger aggravated an elbow injury during a throw. A non-contact elbow injury for a QB is scary, harkening to a pitcher grabbing at his arm after a pitch. Like most of those pitchers, Big Ben is out for the season.

In his stead, Rudolph connected on 12-of-19 passes for 112 yards, two TDs and an interception. Mason isn’t a top-12 option, but has a top-flight wide receiver and offensive line. James Conner claims he’ll be back out there for Week 3 after tests came back positive (according to himself, an objective source). Rudolph gets the 49ers in San Fran before the Bengals at home -- two useable matchups -- before drawing Baltimore in Week 5.

Teddy Bridgewater (QB, NO) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%

1% owned

Drew Brees will be out for roughly six weeks after requiring surgery to repair his thumb ligament, which thrusts Bridgewater to the captain’s chair of a powerful offense. You’re downgrading the Saints players, but there’s no denying Bridgewater’s weaponry in Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas alone. Called one of the best backups in the NFL, he needs to be owned in all 2QB leagues for Week 3’s date at Seattle. Unfortunately, he gets Dallas in Week 4, the upstart Bucs D in Week 5, then Jacksonville and Chicago on the road in Weeks 6-7. One-QB owners can likely look elsewhere for streamers.

FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Running Backs

Peyton Barber (RB, TB) - FAAB Bid: 10-15%

47% owned

We were told Barber would give way to Ronald Jones in Week 2. We were bamboozled. Barber wound up leading the way with 24 touches, 89 yards and a touchdown against a stout Carolina front seven. While Tampa’s offense is a volatile one, they should be in control throughout Week 3 against the Giants. Barber may see another 20-25 rushes in that one.

Frank Gore (RB, BUF) - FAAB Bid: 10-12%

8% owned

Gore turned in a gritty 19-68-1 rushing line against the Giants in Week 2, adding in two catches for 15 yards. Father Time has no power here, and now Gore may be Buffalo’s starter if Devin Singletary’s injury proves to be serious. Buffalo gets Cincinnati’s defense, which was just relentlessly gashed by San Francisco, in Week 3.

Carlos Hyde (RB, HOU) - FAAB Bid: 6-10%

43% owned

Hyde ground out 90 yards from 20 carries in Week 2’s trench war against Jacksonville, giving him 80-plus yards in both of Houston’s games in 2019. Duke Johnson had only six touches, though Hyde’s lack of receiving chops may leave him on the outside in Week 3 against the Chargers. Overall, Hyde looks to be the back to own in standard and half-PPR formats.

Raheem Mostert (RB, SF) - FAAB Bid: 6-8%

16% owned

Mostert motored to 151 total yards and a score on 13 carries and three receptions in Week 2, providing the lightning to Matt Breida’s thunder. Jeffery Wilson added two short TDs of his own, but Mostert and Breida certainly looked the best. San Fran draws Pittsburgh in Week 3 before their Week 4 bye, so I understand not getting aggressive with the bidding. Tevin Coleman is “week-to-week” and could be available when the Niners return in Week 5 against Cleveland.

Jaylen Samuels (RB, PIT) - FAAB Bid: 2-3%

35% owned

James Conner suffered a knee injury in the second half of Pittsburgh’s Week 2 loss, though Samuels didn’t see much run. He gained 18 rushing yards on three carries and had a 13-yard catch, but would be a solid top-24 RB in Week 3 against San Francisco should Conner be out. Pittsburgh’s offensive line is simply that good and Samuels’ dual-threat ability as both runner and receiver help his floor. Conner says he’ll be ready for Week 3, but we’ll see what the team says about that later in the week as practice reports come out.

FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Wide Receivers

Demarcus Robinson (WR, KC) - FAAB Bid: 10-15%

6% owned

I’ll assume Mecole Hardman (40% owned) is unavailable in most leagues if you’re an avid RotoBaller. We couldn’t see Robinson going off too, though, especially with Sammy Watkins somehow being a non-factor on 13 targets while Patrick Mahomes tops 400 yards with four touchdowns thrown. Hardman out-snapped Robinson 53-43 in Week 1, but Robinson was in on 69-of-76 (91%) of KC’s snaps in Week 2.

Nelson Agholor (WR, PHI) - FAAB Bid: 10-15%

14% owned

The Eagles lost Alshon Jeffery (calf), DeSean Jackson (groin) and Dallas Goedert (calf) early on against the Falcons. Agholor wound up leading the receivers with an 8-107-1 line on 11 targets. He briefly left the game after taking a hard hit, but was able to return. He and JJ Arcega-Whiteside played over 90% of Philly’s snaps, though Agholor outperformed the rookie. If either Jeffery or Jackson can’t go in Week 3 then Agholor would be a top-50 WR worthy of flex consideration against Detroit.

Deebo Samuel (WR, SF) - FAAB Bid: 10-15%

13% owned

One might look at Samuels’ 5-87-1 line and get googly eyes, but Deebo played the fourth-most snaps out of the Niners’ WR corps. Worth considering is how well-targeted he was when on the field and his two red-zone targets. Only Richie James had another look in the RZ. I can’t imagine Samuel plays so sparingly in Week 3 against the Steelers, making him a nice addition given the chemistry with Jimmy G.

D.J. Chark (WR, JAX) - FAAB Bid: 10-15%
Chris Conley (WR, JAX) - FAAB Bid: 7-10%

12% owned

These two Jags are banged up but trending upwards. Chark kept the party rolling with a 7-55-1 line after Week 1’s 4-146-1 performance, but is dealing with a minor ankle injury.  Conley has a minor hip injury but was a projected limited participant on Monday’s report alongside Chark. Conley followed up his 6-97-1 line with 73 yards on four catches against Houston. Both are blossoming while Dede Westbrook struggles, though they all have tough sledding to come against TEN in Week 3 and at Denver in Week 4. Still, the usage is encouraging and the schedule opens up in the middle weeks.

Marquise Goodwin (WR, SF) - FAAB Bid: 4-7%

20% owned

The speedy Goodwin got behind the Bengals defense in Week 2, scoring a wide-open, 38-yard TD to fuel a 3-77-1 line. Putting that next to his one-catch effort from Week 1 underscores his boom-bust volatility, but he offers DeSean Jackson-esque value -- especially if Jimmy Garoppolo is regaining confidence in his leg. Goodwin’s 51% snap share led all San Fran wideouts as Coach Kyle Shanahan continues to play musical chairs out there.

Geronimo Allison (WR, GB) - FAAB Bid: 2-3% 

32% owned

Allison was dropped in many leagues after a Week 1 goose egg, but he showed life in Week 2 with a 4-25-1 line on five targets. He’s easily running behind Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling in this offense, playing on under half of the Packers’ snaps in Week 2, but Rodgers’ No. 3 WR holds value even without an injury to Adams or MVS. Being TD-dependent is fine, even if this offense is more run-heavy than the run-and-gun team that yielded James Jones’ TD-heavy value as a third wideout.

Bennie Fowler (WR, NYG) - FAAB Bid: 2-3%

0% owned

The Giants WR corps is wrecked right now. Sterling Shepard missed Week 2 with a concussion and Cody Latimer was placed in the concussion protocol after a big hit against Buffalo. Fowler wound up with 10 targets on the day, making him one of just 16 receivers to reach double-digit looks in Week 2. He even had a 20-yard rush in the mix! Temper expectations to the Big Blue level, but the Giants are nearly always a lock to be playing from behind and requiring the pass.

Damiere Byrd (WR, ARI) - FAAB Bid: 1-2%

0% owned

Those in deep PPR formats can buy into Arizona’s up-tempo volume with Byrd, who has seen seven targets in each of their first two games. He’s playing roughly 90% of the snaps as the Cards prepare for the Panthers in Week 3, with games against the Seahawks, Bengals, Falcons, and Giants to follow. Perhaps Kyler Murray and this offense can spread its wings with kinder matchups on the horizon.

FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Tight Ends

Jason Witten (TE, DAL) - FAAB Bid: 3-5%

15% owned

Witten only saw four targets, but he caught all four of them for 25 yards and a touchdown. He’s scored in each of Dallas’ first two games back after taking 2018 off and is a reliable option for Dak Prescott. You can point at the schedule and say he’s only benefiting from facing the Giants and Redskins thus far. To this I say: Dallas gets Miami in Week 3. Don’t turn your nose up at a good thing.

Tyler Eifert (TE, CIN) - FAAB Bid: 2-4%

9% owned

Cursed with poor health, Eifert is currently healthy and scored his first touchdown of 2019 in Week 2. He only had nine yards on three catches (five targets), but Eifert’s value has always come from being a sizeable red-zone presence. 

Will Dissly (TE, SEA) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%

3% owned

You remember this song and dance from last season, right? Dissly caught all five of his Week 2 targets for 50 yards and two touchdowns against a Steelers Defense that guarded the perimeter well. The perks of being 6’4”  in the red zone when Seattle’s other targets are considerably smaller, eh? Don’t pay to chase this game.

FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Defense/Special Teams

Tennessee Titans D/ST - FAAB Bid: 1-2%

35% owned

The Titans travel to Jacksonville for Week 3 having held Cleveland and Indianapolis to under 20 points each with eight sacks and five turnovers generated thus far. Everyone loves to meme with Gardner Minshew, but there’s no denying that offense is rather toothless at the moment. And we just laid out that their two best-performing receivers are dinged up. Plus, if you're one that thinks teams play terribly on TNF then here's your chance to target a below-average offense on a short week.

Green Bay Packers D/ST - FAAB Bid: 0-1%

16% owned

After embarrassing Mitch Trubisky and the Bears in 2019’s season opener, the Packers picked apart Kirk Cousins and the Vikes throughout Week 2. With six sacks, five turnovers and just 19 total points surrendered through two games, Green Bay will host Joe Flacco and the Broncos in Week 3. I'm impressed by their aggression up front and the secondary's play over the top, making them one of my favorite adds this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers D/ST - FAAB Bid: 0-1%

1% owned

Tampa Bay’s strong defensive performance last Thursday night was about Cam Newton being washed up, with most overlooking how well Todd Bowles’ unit did. The Bucs held San Francisco to 19 offensive points and then kept Carolina out of the endzone, yielding four field goals. They’ll play the New York Giants in Week 3, who have Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram and then...what? Cody Latimer is in concussion protocol with Sterling Shepard, which leaves Bennie Fowler and Russell Shepard as their starters for Eli Manning. Fowler is a decent target for volume's sake, but don't let that fool you into thinking he's one to avoid.

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