Five Top Running Backs I'm Fading Ever So Slightly

September 5, 2019

Gage Bridgford identifies five running backs who may be overvalued in fantasy football drafts, based on ADP data, and discusses their potential red flags.

Everyone's going to draft the top guys. New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley, New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara - and those guys are going to be owned across the board. They rightfully belong in the first round and are being drafted highly. But who are some guys that are being overvalued a bit and drafted a little too high?

That's what we're here to look at today. The players below are all talented players, and they deserve to be rostered across fantasy leagues. However, they're getting drafted a little too high right now, and the value they can potentially return isn't great as a result. Sometimes, reaching for a player will leave more value for your competition, and will leave you scrambling to make it up later. At a position like running back, the depth is so thin that mistakes are potentially more costly. Let's start looking to try and fix those mistakes and see if we can't get everything straightened before the season starts in just a few hours.

All ADPs are from FantasyFootballCalculator.com for Half-PPR 12-Team leagues.

David Montgomery, Chicago Bears

Current ADP: 3.6
Players I'd target instead: Josh Jacobs, Sony Michel, Devonta Freeman

David Montgomery is a talented player, and he's playing in what will likely be a top-10 offense this season. Despite that, the hype train has gotten out of control. Montgomery has yet to play a snap of football outside of the preseason yet he's going in the middle of the fourth round. His ADP of 3.70 is ahead of guys like Josh Jacobs of the Oakland Raiders, who is unlikely to split touches with anyone, and Sony Michel of the New England Patriots, who had one of the best postseason runs that we've seen in recent memory.

Montgomery is going to likely receive the lion's share of the work, but he still has to deal with Tarik Cohen taking some touches and a lot of passes, and Mike Davis taking some goal line touches . Kansas City Chiefs running back Damien Williams was going in the second or third round before the team trading for LeSean McCoy. He's now fallen behind Montgomery, and the Chiefs offense will be miles better than the Bears. Montgomery should be owned, and he should be a player to be targeted at the right spot. With his ADP steadily rising into the 3rd round, he's just getting too rich to afford.

Montgomery has gotten a lot of love from the Bears and the team's coaching staff for his upside as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. Despite that, I just can't justify taking him so early and ahead of veterans or players in better situations. I'd prefer Montgomery a round or so later around 4.08. A couple of the guys around his ADP I would take are the aforementioned Michel, Jacobs, as well as, Devonta Freeman of the Atlanta Falcons.

Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks

Current ADP: 2.12
Players I'd target instead: Aaron Jones, Kerryon Johnson

Chris Carson's inclusion on this list has nothing to do with his talent. When he's the healthy featured running back, he puts up consistent production. The problem is that the Seahawks invested a 2018 first-round pick in running back Rashaad Penny. They're not going to let him sit on the bench without getting a decent share of the work. Penny averaged 4.9 yards per carry last season, and he's likely to continue to receive consistent work.

Carson is going a few spots above the aforementioned Montgomery, so he has similar names behind him. In addition to having to fight with Penny for touches, the Seahawks have been adding pass-catchers to this team to make the offense more explosive behind quarterback Russell Wilson. The running game will likely still be a major factor, but with where Carson is currently being drafted, there are better and more stable options on the board.

I'd grab Carson in the middle of the 3rd round, and would prefer Aaron Jones or Kerryon Johnson instead, as both are clear lead backs on teams that want to feature them.

Le'Veon Bell, New York Jets

Current ADP: 1.08
Players I'd target instead: Dalvin Cook, Todd Gurley (a bit later) 

When we last saw him on an actual football field, Le'Veon Bell was arguably the top running back in the NFL. His patience in the backfield gave analysts flashbacks of Barry Sanders, and he meshed perfectly behind a Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line that was one of the best in the NFL. Now, he joins a New York Jets team that has a coach that said they overpaid Bell and an offensive line that is a massive step down. In addition to that, the receivers on this team are far less proven than the All-Star duo of Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster, which means the Jets will have the ball less, which means less potential touches for Bell.

In Adam Gase's final two seasons with the Miami Dolphins, the team ranked 32nd and 25th in rushing attempts league-wide. He hasn't run uptempo offenses, so Bell would have to see a heavy workload to justify his current ADP, and we're not even sure how heavy his workload will be. Given there are a ton of elite players in that same area, you can choose to let someone else take this risk.

The first round is an area where you can't afford to miss on your pick. This is why I'll be passing on Bell if I'm picking in the 7-9 range, as I'd prefer to take a top WR and hope that either Todd Gurley or Dalvin Cook make it back to me in round 2.

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals

Current ADP: 2.06
Players I'd target instead: Todd Gurley, Leonard Fournette 

As someone with a ton of Joe Mixon shares, this hurts to write. The problem is that the path to returning 2nd round value for him is not clear. He has a rookie head coach with a roster that has a lot of development to do this season. On top of that, the offensive line in front of him continues to lose pieces, with multiple starters already down for the year either due to injury or retirement. Mixon could  run into the same situation as 2018 David Johnson. He has a ton of talent with a bad situation.

Mixon had over 1,000 yards last season, and he caught 43 balls on the year. He could receive a good bit of pass-catching work, and, if he receives the volume he needs, he could live up to this draft stock. The problem is that he could take a huge beating in the process of trying to get there. His talent and explosiveness make him tough to ignore at a certain point, but his draft value has more variance than many other guys around him for a reason.

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns

Current ADP: 1.08
Players I'd target instead: James Connor, David Johnson (if he falls), Dalvin Cook

For the first 11 weeks of the season, Nick Chubb could easily be a top-five running back. He's a very talented player, running behind an improved offensive line, with a quarterback and receiving corps that provide lighter boxes for him to run into. The problem with his late first-round draft price arises at the end of the season.

Last year, Chubb was a league winner at the end of the season. For a late-round flier or waiver claim, he was giving you legitimate starting running back numbers. This year, after the Browns decided to sign former Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt, it put some doubt into the Chubb stock. While Hunt is suspended for the first 10 games of the season, when he comes back, he's going to get some touches, especially in the passing game where he's a dynamic player. If you're ok with Chubb being an RB1 for the beginning of the season rather than the end, you could do much worse than him mid-first. If you want a guarantee at the end of the year, you might have to look elsewhere or grab his handcuff just in case.

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