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Alvin Kamara has been a fantasy stud again in his second year, but recent disappointing performances and a tough stretch of games have his owners wondering if he can help them deliver a fantasy title in 2018.
Many fantasy owners of New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara were panicking after his dud in Week 5 on Monday night against the Washington Redskins when he had a season-low nine touches (six carries for 24 yards and three catches for 15 yards). That game coincided with the return of Mark Ingram from his four-game suspension.
I warned everyone not to sell high on Kamara and hold onto him, because I felt Kamara was still the best running back on the team and an elite RB1 for the remainder of the season in one of the best offenses in the NFL. I was right, as the 23-year-old reeled off touchdowns in the next five games, including nine scores over that span (six rushing, three receiving). He has 173 carries on the year for 793 yards, 11 touchdowns and a healthy 4.6 yards per carry heading into Week 15. He also has 70 receptions for 591 yards and an additional four touchdowns for 8.4 yards per catch.
While he might not be as efficient on a per-touch basis as he was as a rookie, he has already surpassed his rushing attempts, touchdowns and ground yardage from 2017. And he's on pace to set a new career high in catches with three games remaining. Kamara ranks fifth in fantasy football with 304.4 points in standard point-per-reception leagues, which is behind only Patrick Mahomes, Todd Gurley, Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey. That certainly qualifies as an elite, must-start RB1 if I must say so myself.
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Is He Wearing Down?
But yet here we are heading into the fantasy semifinals in most leagues, and Kamara's owners may be panicking again. The reason: after that aforementioned beastly five-game stretch, Kamara has disappointed by his standards when his fantasy owners have needed him the most.
While his overall touches haven't suffered all that much of late -- he has double-digit carries in eight straight games -- the difference is he just hasn't found the end zone since Nov. 18, a span of three games. His touch totals the last three games have been 17, 19 and 15. Not excellent, but not great either.
Perhaps the most frustrating part is that two of his last three opponents (Buccaneers, Falcons) are among the worst in terms of fantasy points allowed to running backs per week in 2018. To say that he failed to capitalize in those games would be an understatement.
Kamara is averaging 4.76 yards per rush and 5.79 yards per catch over the same span. The rushing average is actually better than his season average in that regard, while his receiving average is slightly down.
It doesn't appear that he's wearing down to close out the season. Instead, the Saints offense has just hit a little lull, and Kamara's inability to find the end zone of late has amplified things. If you're looking to blame Ingram, you really can't, as he has just one score in the last three games.
How Will Kamara Finish?
Most of his owners are only concerned about the next two weeks, as most leagues don't mess with Week 17. Regardless, it could be a good news/bad news situation for Kamara to finish out the regular season.
I'll give you the bad news first.
The matchups in the next two weeks are not great (at Carolina and home to Pittsburgh). And if your league extends into Week 17, the Saints get the Panthers at home. Carolina's secondary is exploitable, but their run defense has been strong, led by All-Pro linebacker Luke Kuechly. Carolina allows only 19.9 fantasy points per game to RBs, which is fifth best in the NFL.
The game against Pittsburgh could easily turn into a track meet, which would be good news for Kamara, but their run defense has also been pretty stout over the course of the year. The Steelers allow 20.2 fantasy points per game to the position.
OK now to the good news. Two of the last three games are at home, where Drew Brees and the Saints offense tend to play much better in front of the home faithful.
I'll remind you that Kamara has 15 total touchdowns on the year, so there's a good chance he won't go five or six games straight to finish the season without finding paydirt. Not in this offense.
In two games against Carolina in his rookie year, Kamara had just 11 carries for 97 yards but managed to find the end zone three times on the ground. He also caught eight of his 11 targets for 71 yards (8.88 yards per catch). Despite the small sample size, he's played well against the division rivals.
And finally, with home-field advantage still on the line throughout the NFC playoffs (Saints are lined up as the top seed as of now), they'll likely be playing for something through Week 17. The Rams have three very winnable games remaining (Eagles, Cardinals and 49ers), so the Saints must win to stay in the top spot. Kamara is unlikely to be rested unless a major upset happens against the Rams.
There's a common saying in fantasy football when this time of year comes around... "Play the guys that got you there..." Kamara is likely the main reason why you're in contention for a fantasy championship, so you must stick with him and forget about what has occurred the last three weeks.
